鹿特丹港口综合体长期发展的趋势与机遇

本文对有关鹿特丹港口综合体长期发展的趋势及其机遇进行了概述。这些趋势是由文献综述和对20位研究港口开发领域方面的教授的访谈中得出。笔者在此就未来十年间预期会变得愈发重要的九大趋势作了探讨。这些趋势涵括制造业与物流平台的兴起,土地利用率的提高,港区混合土地利用的增加,以及港口"区域创新体系"建设的重要性不断上升。     

Employment transitions in the Netherlands, 1980–2004: Are low educated men subject to structural or cyclical crowding out?

This article addresses whether low educated men are displaced from their jobs by higher educated workers in the Netherlands in the period 1980–2004. In particular, we test whether structural or cyclical crowding out is predominant in the Dutch labor market. In order to do so, we try to explain the observed trends in education-specific transition rates to entry into first employment from education, exit from employment into unemployment or inactivity, and re-entry into employment from unemployment or inactivity for men by both business cycle effects (that is, changes in aggregate unemployment rates) and structural effects (that is, changes in labor supply–demand ratios for high educated). Discrete-time event history models are estimated using the OSA Labor Supply Panel 1985–2004. Retrospective information enables to study trends from 1980 onwards, so that structural effects can be distinguished from cyclical effects. The results show that structural crowding out exists at both the worker in- and outflow. First of all, it was observed that a growth in the oversupply of high educated increases the employment exit risk of low educated workers more so than that of higher educated ones. In addition, it was shown that an increase in the oversupply of high educated especially reduces the re-employment chances of low educated unemployed men. There is no evidence found for cyclical crowding out among low educated workers in the Dutch labor market.     

The transition to lower fertility in the West Bank and Gaza Strip: evidence from recent surveys

Using recent data from three national-level surveys conducted in 1995, 2000, and 2004, we provide evidence that Palestinian fertility rates in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, historically among the highest in the world, began to slow especially in the West Bank, but stalled in Gaza during the recent Intifada. The TFR in the early 2000s was 4.6 per woman, down from 6.2 a decade earlier. However, most of the decline in Gaza’s fertility appears to have taken place during the early 1990s, before the onset of the second Intifada. In Gaza, the TFR decreased from 7.4 to 5.7 during the 1990s, but changed only slightly to 5.6 during the second Intifada period. Surprisingly, contraceptive prevalence has not changed during these years, and the transition to lower fertility was mainly due to changes in nuptiality. Demand for children remains high, although there is evidence of unmet need for contraception. The continuing conflict and worsening economic situation provide clues to the persistence of high fertility among Palestinian women.

Family Flexibility in Response to Economic Conditions: Fathers' Involvement in Child‐Care Tasks

Recession‐related increases in men's child care are well documented, but supporting evidence describes the last several decades of the 20th century. Changes in family life and in the association between families' economic conditions and the macro economy provide reason to question the continued existence of a “recession effect.” This article evaluates the frequency of married and cohabiting fathers' engagement in the day‐to‐day tasks of child care during the so‐called Great Recession, using data from male respondents to the 2006–2010 National Survey of Family Growth. Results indicated an increase in men's frequency of engagement in physical care and feeding, starting in 2008 and continuing into 2010. The share of men engaged in daily play fell sharply at the recession's onset but rebounded in subsequent years. These results suggest that, even with a narrowing of the gendered division of domestic labor, room remains for families to respond flexibly to economic shifts.     

Crime and perceptions after a decade of democracy

Crime has become central to any discussion about the consolidation of democracy in South Africa. Concerns about crime intensified in the years after 1994, as the country attempted to grapple with the apparent ‘crime wave’ that accompanied the transition. A decade later crime is still a priority for government and a concern among citizens, but the clamour that characterised both state and civil society responses in the early years of democracy has receded (See the article by the author in Social Indicators Research 41: 137–168, 1997). This may relate to the decrease in crime levels as reflected by various statistical sources. It is also possible that those whose voices were heard most loudly on the issue – the middle classes – have taken all available measures to protect their property and lives from crime. In all likelihood, South Africans have become accustomed to living in a violent society, and one in which other equally serious problems now require attention. Although the national obsession with crime has waned, the available data nevertheless indicate that the problem still affects many thousands of lives. The impact of crime – in terms of the costs of victimisation, negative perceptions and fear, and the cost of responding to crime – remains high for South African society. This paper considers how crime levels and perceptions about crime and safety have changed over the past decade, and what these trends tell us about the country 10 years into our democracy.     

论当代中国文化人类学的发展趋势

本文从学科发展的角度出发,对当代中国文化人类学的发展趋势作了预见性的展望,即人类学理论取向多元化的发展趋势;人类学研究方法综合运用的趋向;人类学的分支学科和应用研究向纵深发展;人类学在中国社会中的影响力日显突出。     

当代我国高效课堂改革面临的问题与挑战——基于陕西的调查分析

我国高效课堂改革热潮正在继续,反思的跟进是延续课改生命的选择。陕西高效课堂改革是全国省域高效课堂改革的缩影,深入进行个案反思意义深远。陕西高效课堂改革面临的现实问题是:重学理念的实质性推进、名校的冷淡心态、千课一面的责难、教学评价的软肋、展示与效率间的内在抵牾。面对这些问题,陕西教育同仁必须尽快构建课堂效能保障体系、组建课改协同组织、构建全时空覆盖型的高效课堂体系,以有力应对和助推高效课堂改革新高潮的来临。     

东南沿海地区家庭教育发展的社会背景及其发展趋势

20世纪 90年代中后期 ,我国东南沿海地区的家庭教育得到了长足的发展。本文分析了影响本地区家庭教育发展的经济、政治、科技、文化、对外关系、学校教育和居民生活等社会因素的状况 ,从家庭教育的地位、内容、方式、环境等方面预测了 2 1世纪初期本地区家庭教育发展的趋势     

西方政策工具选择的战略取向及启示

西方政策工具研究经历了一个产生、演化和发展的过程,实践中的政策工具选择呈现出民主化、效率化、科技化、法治化和多元化的发展趋势。研究西方政策工具选择的战略取向,对我国在构建和谐社会的进程中不断实现政策工具选择的有效创新具有有益的启示。     

文化产业发展研究综述

21世纪,世界经济风起云涌。文化产业被认为是最有发展前途的未来产业之一,已到很多国家的高度重视。文化产业是我国社会主义市场经济发展的产物,发展文化产业对增强国家综合实力、提升区域竞争力具有重要的意义。本文通过对国内外文化产业的发展现状、内涵的界定进行梳理,对未来的研究方向提出展望,以期对我国文化产业从理论和实践上进行更高层次的探索有所帮助。