增强社会主义核心价值体系引领力探析

增强社会主义核心价值体系引领力,提高“引领”水平,充分发挥核心价值体系对当代社会思潮的巨大引擎作用,是理论和实践的双重要求.社会主义核心价值体系引领力具体化为马克思主义的指导力、共同理想的凝聚力、民族精神和时代精神的鼓舞力以及社会主义荣辱观的感化力.增强社会主义核心价值体系引领力在遵循唯物辩证性原则的基础上,需要从全局中找准引领的着力点,注重人文关怀、社会规范引领和推进社会主义核心价值体系大众化,以切实提高引领的实效性.     

顾客体验理论逻辑演进与未来展望

顾客体验具有传统商品不具备的高价值.顾客体验理论源于体验经济和顾客消费需求的交互作用.顾客体验具有个体性、感知性、情感性、价值性等主客体特性,有感官、认知、心灵等六种体验类别.顾客体验主要有“心理体验说、流体验说、组合体验说和战略体验模块说”四大学术观点.未来的研究趋势应从现象学视角研究顾客体验的本质内涵、生成机理;关注顾客体验的非理性内容以及加强定量实证研究.     

Social work education in Australia and the USA: comparative perspectives and contemporary issues

The article discusses similarities and differences in social work education and profession in Australia and the USA, reflects on contemporary issues and challenges that affect social work education and practice in both countries, and identifies mutual areas of learning and exchange. Drawing on secondary data, it comparatively analyses important variables such as the growth of social work education, curricula and curricular models, accreditation standards, code of ethics and professional licensure. The analysis shows significant similarities and differences in these variables, and brings out unaddressed issues and challenges. It argues that the profession in general has not adequately been successful in translating its value-based ideals into social work education and practice in both countries, particularly in the context of the free market economies. Experiences of both countries provide scope for mutual sharing and learning.     

收入差距的长期变动特征及其政策启示

从居民收入差距的长期变化特征来看,经济发展中的收入差距变动可能既没有库兹涅茨式的乐观,也没有证据支持皮凯蒂式的悲观.经济发展过程中的收入差距变动,既不存在自发的改善机制,也不存在内生的恶化机制,也许在更大程度上应当归因于具体的经济发展模式、某些具体的经济政策作用的结果.通过比较中美收入分配结构可以发现,我国收入分配中的再分配效应相对较弱;劳动力市场存在对低工资人群的保护不足,而高工资人群中的竞争不足现象.从中可以获得的启示包括,可能并不存在决定收入差距长期变动的简单机制,更应该关注经济发展具体政策的分配效应;完善再分配机制、增强对收入分布中低工资人群的保护,与强化收入分布中高工资人群的竞争激励并不矛盾,在我国收入分配政策中应当避免相反的政策组合形式.     

A comparison of procedures to correct for base-line differences in the analysis of continuous longitudinal data: a case-study

Summary.  The main advantage of longitudinal studies is that they can distinguish changes over time within individuals (longitudinal effects) from differences between subjects at the start of the study (base-line characteristics; cross-sectional effects). Often, especially in observational studies, subjects are very heterogeneous at base-line, and one may want to correct for this, when doing inferences for the longitudinal trends. Three procedures for base-line correction are compared in the context of linear mixed models for continuous longitudinal data. All procedures are illustrated extensively by using data from an experiment which aimed at studying the relationship between the post-operative evolution of the functional status of elderly hip fracture patients and their preoperative neurocognitive status.     

LOCAL LINEAR FORECASTS USING CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINES

This paper shows how cubic smoothing splines fitted to univariate time series data can be used to obtain local linear forecasts. The approach is based on a stochastic state‐space model which allows the use of likelihoods for estimating the smoothing parameter, and which enables easy construction of prediction intervals. The paper shows that the model is a special case of an ARIMA(0, 2, 2) model; it provides a simple upper bound for the smoothing parameter to ensure an invertible model; and it demonstrates that the spline model is not a special case of Holt's local linear trend method. The paper compares the spline forecasts with Holt's forecasts and those obtained from the full ARIMA(0, 2, 2) model, showing that the restricted parameter space does not impair forecast performance. The advantage of this approach over a full ARIMA(0, 2, 2) model is that it gives a smooth trend estimate as well as a linear forecast function.     

19世纪末心理主义社会学思潮和社会心理学的诞生

本文主要论述19世纪末心理主义思潮对社会心理学诞生的主要影响,重点分析了德国的民族心理学,法国的群众心理学和美国的心理进化论三种理论,在对各种理论的代表人物各持己见的思想进行的阐述分析的过程中,揭示他们对社会心理学的诞生所作出的杰出贡献。     

从眼镜造型变化规律上探讨流行性产品的开发

当今消费市场上，人们越来越注意产品的流行性，所以对 流行性产品进行研究成为客观所需。流行性产品设计师更是需要把握瞬息万变的流行变化， 从而做出准确的产品设计与开发。本文以眼镜为例，从历代流行眼镜分类分析的基础上寻找 各种类型的变化规律，从而对未来流行性产品变化趋势进行预测，以期对当前我国流行性产 品的开发提供借鉴。     

对体育文化产业化的探讨

体育文化是一个相对独立的文化系统 ,其发展方向在一定程度上代表了整个社会体育的未来趋势。从体育文化内涵及特征上把握体育文化产业化研究的对象 ,不仅有利于体育文化的产业化选择 ,而且有利于对体育文化结构的多元发展进行深入的探讨