西方关于儿童心理理论的理论解释

儿童"心理理论"的研究领域始于20世纪80年代.近三十年来西方关于儿童心理理论的理论解释主要有七种,各种理论解释都有其合理之处,也存在自身的弊端.     

A note on nonexistence of posterior moments

Bayesian analyses often take for granted the assumption that the posterior distribution has at least a first moment. They often include computed or estimated posterior means. In this note, the authors show an example of a Weibull distribution parameter where the theoretical posterior mean fails to exist for commonly used proper semi–conjugate priors. They also show that posterior moments can fail to exist with commonly used noninformative priors including Jeffreys, reference and matching priors, despite the fact that the posteriors are proper. Moreover, within a broad class of priors, the predictive distribution also has no mean. The authors illustrate the problem with a simulated example. Their results demonstrate that the unwitting use of estimated posterior means may yield unjustified conclusions.     

社会主义国有企业家能力素质与成长周期的匹配关系研究

国有企业是国民经济的支柱,国有企业家是企业进步的发动机。旨在构建社会主义国有企业家能力素质模型并分析其与企业家成长周期的匹配关系,了解企业家的成长规律,找到培养和建设优秀的社会主义国有企业家队伍的方法。通过文献整理,访谈调研和问卷调研等方式,构建了社会主义国有企业家能力素质模型,探析了企业家六个成长阶段的能力素质差异。通过研究和分析,得到了六个成长阶段需要关注的工作动力和重点培养的能力素质,并结合社会主义国有企业家成长过程与企业家胜任力为国有企业家成长与发展提出了建议。     

Estimating the Parameters of the Generalized Lambda Distribution: Which Method Performs Best?

Generalized lambda distribution (GLD) is a flexible distribution that can represent a wide variety of distributional shapes. This property of the GLD has made it very popular in simulation input modeling in recent years, and several fitting methods for estimating the parameters of the GLD have been proposed. Nevertheless, there appears to be a lack of insights about the performances of these fitting methods in estimating the parameters of the GLD for a variety of distributional shapes and input data. Our primary goal in this article is to compare the goodness-of-fits of the popular fitting methods in estimating the parameters of the GLD introduced in Freimer et al. (1988 Freimer, M., Mudholkar, G., Kollia, G., Lin, C. (1988). A study of the Generalized Tukey Lambda family. Communications in Statistics-Theory and Methods 17:3547–3567.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), i.e., Freimer–Mudholkar–Kollia–Lin (FMKL) GLD, and provide guidelines to the simulation practitioner about when to use each method. We further describe the use of the genetic algorithm for the FMKL GLD, and investigate the performances of the suggested methods in modeling the daily exchange rates of eight currencies.     

Multiple Imputation of Predictor Variables Using Generalized Additive Models

The sensitivity of multiple imputation methods to deviations from their distributional assumptions is investigated using simulations, where the parameters of scientific interest are the coefficients of a linear regression model, and values in predictor variables are missing at random. The performance of a newly proposed imputation method based on generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS) is investigated. Although imputation methods based on predictive mean matching are virtually unbiased, they suffer from mild to moderate under-coverage, even in the experiment where all variables are jointly normal distributed. The GAMLSS method features better coverage than currently available methods.     

Unbiased and upper critical values of mean trace of multivariate beta for testing difference of two covariance matrices or several mean vectors

For the invariant unbiased level-α test of equality of two co-variance matrices, the quantities b and B satisfying the equations P(b≤T≤B) = 1-α, E(T|b≤T≤B) = E(T), where T is the mean trace of a multivariate beta, are required. Five and one per cent values of B are tabulated for m = 2,3(2)11,16; b can be obtained from B. Upper five and one per cent values of T are also included, as these are required for the locally most powerful invariant test of nullity of any source of difference in several mean vectors and the locally most powerful invariant one-sided test of equality of two covariance matrices. Lower critical values may be obtained from upper critical values.     

Decriminalization and Marijuana Smoking Prevalence: Evidence From Australia

This article uses the 2001 National Drug Strategy Household Survey to assess the impact of marijuana decriminalization policy on marijuana smoking prevalence in Australia. Both parametric and nonparametric methods are used. The parametric approach includes endogenous probit switching, two-part, sample selection, and standard dummy variable models, while the nonparametric approach uses propensity score stratification matching. Specification analyses are also conducted. A nonparametric kernel-based test is constructed to select between parametric and nonparametric models, and the likelihood ratio test is used to choose among parametric models. Our analyses favor the endogenous switching model where decriminalization increases the probability of smoking by 16.2%.     

Development of the Detroit Target Cities Management Information System

SUMMARY

The Detroit Target City project was developed on a previously existing central intake system. The management information system, developed using a terminal-host model with a character based user interface, supports client treatment matching, treatment slot management, and case management tools. In addition to describing the system and its development lessons learned in the creation and implementation of the system are discussed.     

公路行业职工教育培训的定位与思考

职工教育培训是公路事业发展过程中一项具有先导性与全面性的重要工作,它是企业文化的基础,是开发人力资源的关键,需正确把握定位与导向问题,注重开展形式与教育内容的创新,完善职工教育运行机制,促进公路事业率先发展。     

现代汉语同义并列复合词语义语用分析

从语义、语用角度，对同义并列复合词进行了考察分析。在语义方面，通过对组成同义并列复合词的两个单音词的研究，总结其为五种模式：A≈B≈AB；A〉（B≈AB）；B〉（A≈AB）；（AnB）≈AB；（AuB）≈AB。语用方面，认为同义并列复合词的单音词和双音词之间，有的可以互换使用，有的因搭配习惯或韵律、音节的限制，而各自有不同使用条件；论述了在附加色彩方面的分别；从语义、语用角度，分析了同义并列复合词存在的意义和作用。