Best Spatial Two-Stage Least Squares Estimators for a Spatial Autoregressive Model with Autoregressive Disturbances

Estimation of a cross-sectional spatial model containing both a spatial lag of the dependent variable and spatially autoregressive disturbances are considered. [Kelejian and Prucha (1998)]described a generalized two-stage least squares procedure for estimating such a spatial model. Their estimator is, however, not asymptotically optimal. We propose best spatial 2SLS estimators that are asymptotically optimal instrumental variable (IV) estimators. An associated goodness-of-fit (or over identification) test is available. We suggest computationally simple and tractable numerical procedures for constructing the optimal instruments.     

完善民事诉讼审前准备程序之初探

庭审形式化是当前民事审判方式改革力图克服的现象。本文试图从审前程序入手,对审前准备程序的含义、特征、建立审前准备程序的必要性以及完善审前准备程序的具体构想等问题。作一些粗浅的探讨,以期能为庭审的顺利进行创造条件。     

MULTIVARLYTE ANALYSIS OF CLUSTERED SURVEY DATA: TESTING EQUALITY OF COVARLANCE MATRICES

The problem of testing the hypothesis of equality of covariance matrices in the presence of two-stage sampling is considered. Asymptotic test procedures based on linearization, grouping and jackknifing with or without transformation are proposed. The finite sample properties of these procedures are investigated in sampling experiments both from simulated known distributions and from a natural population.     

A TWO-STAGE UNRELATED RANDOMISED RESPONSE PROCEDURE

In a sample survey, questions requiring personal or controversial assertions often give rise to resistance. A randomised response procedure can be used to help the researcher gather accurate data in this case. This paper describes a new two-stage unrelated randomised response procedure that combines the use of two randomisation devices (Mangat & Singh, 1990) and an unrelated question (Horwitz et al. 1967). It examines the situation where the respondents are not completely truthful in their answers. The efficiency of this new method is compared with the original one-stage procedure proposed by Horwitz et al. (1967), and guidelines for choosing the values of different parameters for the procedures are provided. Results from an empirical study which examines the efficiency and feasibility of the proposed method are given.     

Bayesian binary segmentation procedure for detecting streakiness in sports

Summary.  When an individual player or team enjoys periods of good form, and when these occur, is a widely observed phenomenon typically called 'streakiness'. It is interesting to assess which team is a streaky team, or who is a streaky player in sports. Such competitors might have a large number of successes during some periods and few or no successes during other periods. Thus, their success rate is not constant over time. We provide a Bayesian binary segmentation procedure for locating changepoints and the associated success rates simultaneously for these competitors. The procedure is based on a series of nested hypothesis tests each using the Bayes factor or the Bayesian information criterion. At each stage, we only need to compare a model with one changepoint with a model based on a constant success rate. Thus, the method circumvents the computational complexity that we would normally face in problems with an unknown number of changepoints. We apply the procedure to data corresponding to sports teams and players from basketball, golf and baseball.     

浅议分析性复核在审计中的应用

分析性复核 ,是指注册会计师分析被审计单位重要的比率或趋势。在会计报表审计中 ,分析性复核可以帮助注册会计师确定其他审计程序的性质、时间及范围 ,直接作为实质性测试程序和用于对被审计会计报表的整体合理性作最后复核的作用。文章分析了分析性复核的优点 ,提出了如何运用分析性复核的建议     

Dynamic sampling plans in on-line control charts

Three simple dynamic sampling plans for detecting the change point are investigated in the discrete-time case. The first is a two-rate sampling CUSUM procedure. The second is a two-rate sampling Shiryayev-Roberts procedure. The third is a periodic sequential testing procedure. Two problems are discussed. First, simple design methods are provided for practical use. Second, a comparison between the three plans is made in the continuous-time case, which shows that by properly choosing the design parameters, the three plans can be made equally efficient in certain senses.     

Recursive procedures for multiple decisions: finite time memory and stepwise maximum likelihood procedure

A version of the multiple decsion problem is studied in which the procedure is based only on the current observation and the previous decision. A necessary and sufficient condition for inconsistency of the stepwise maximum likelihood procedure is shown to be the boundedness of the likelihood ratios. In the case of consistency the (typically slow) rate of convergence to zero of the error probabilities is determined.     

THE CONVERGENCE RATE OF SEQUENTIAL FIXED-WIDTH CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR REGULAR FUNCTIONALS

Let X₁X₂,.be i.i.d. random variables and let U_n= (n r)^-1S?^(n,r) h (X_i1,., X_ir,) be a U-statistic with EU_n= v, v unknown. Assume that g(X₁) =E[h(X₁,.,X_r) - v |X₁]has a strictly positive variance s?². Further, let a be such that φ(a) - φ(-a) =α for fixed α, 0 < α < 1, where φ is the standard normal d.f., and let S²_n be the Jackknife estimator of n Var U_n. Consider the stopping times N(d)= min {n: S²_n: + n^-1≤²a^-2},d > 0, and a confidence interval for v of length 2d,of the form I_n,d= [U_n,-d, Un + d]. We assume that Var U_n is unknown, and hence, no fixed sample size method is available for finding a confidence interval for v of prescribed width 2d and prescribed coverage probability α Turning to a sequential procedure, let I_N(d),d be a sequence of sequential confidence intervals for v. The asymptotic consistency of this procedure, i.e. lim_{d → 0}P(v ∈ I_N(d),d)=α follows from Sproule (1969). In this paper, the rate at which |P(v ∈ I_N(d),d) converges to α is investigated. We obtain that |P(v ∈ I_N(d),d) - α| = 0 (d^{1/2-(1+k)/2(1+m)}), d → 0, where K = max {0,4 - m}, under the condition that E|h(X₁, X_r)|^m < ∞m > 2. This improves and extends recent results of Ghosh & DasGupta (1980) and Mukhopadhyay (1981).     

再论罪名变更的法理基础及其模式选择--刑事一体化角度的思考

在法院能否变更起诉指控的罪名以及如何变更起诉指控罪名的问题上,一些国家和地区存在着立法上的差别和理论上的分野.我国目前在程序设计上对法院的罪名变更权缺乏制约,理论界提出的种种改革方案也都值得商榷.我国罪名变更制度的建构,应当立足于我国特有的法文化传承和法治土壤,应当建立以四要件犯罪构成模式为基石并与诉因制度相整合的"诉因制度本土化"模式.