需求不确定下的补偿策略理论模型

在需求不确定的前提条件下就供应商对销售商的补偿策略进行了深入研究,建立了包 含风险偏好的补偿策略理论模型. 在该理论模型的基础上,运用数值分析的手段分析了风险偏 好对供应链中参与者决策行为的影响,为供应链决策者制定合理的决策提供了科学依据. 最 后,结合我国国情,重点讨论如何在我国正确实施补偿策略.     

A delay-in-payment contract for Pareto improvement of a supply chain with stochastic demand

We consider a supply chain consisting of a single supplier and a single retailer with stochastic customer demand, which is operated over an infinite horizon. We propose a delay-in-payment contract to coordinate the supply chain. With this contract, the supplier allows the retailer to pay partial order cost at the ordering epoch, and to pay the remaining portion after a permissible number of periods. The system is formulated as a stochastic dynamic programming problem. It is shown that there exists a base-stock policy to be optimal. Compared with the traditional wholesale-price contract, the delay-in-payment contract with appropriate parameters can achieve a Pareto improvement (i.e., the performances of both the supplier and the retailer using the delay-in-payment contract are better than those using the wholesale-price contract). Numerical studies are performed to investigate both the effectiveness of the Pareto improvement, and the impact of the major parameters of the delay-in-payment contract on the system performance.     

阶梯电价背景下基于贝叶斯分析的用电需求模型

阶梯电价不仅引导居民合理、节约用电,而且减少了用户之间的电价交叉补贴,但在实际应用中存在多种不确定因素,如居民用电需求变动以及各档电量的确定范围等。针对居民用电需求变动,本文提出了基于贝叶斯估计方法的阶梯电价用电需求模型。首先提出基于阶梯电价的需求函数;其次对阶梯电价用电需求函数进行贝叶斯分析,分别从统计模型、似然函数、后验分布以及加速收敛四个方面分析;最后,对1250个用户的用电数据进行估计,将影响因素带入模型得出各用户的用电需求,确定了贝叶斯估计对用电需求模型构建的适用性。     

Agent‐Based Recovery Model for Seismic Resilience Evaluation of Electrified Communities

In this article, an agent‐based framework to quantify the seismic resilience of an electric power supply system (EPSS) and the community it serves is presented. Within the framework, the loss and restoration of the EPSS power generation and delivery capacity and of the power demand from the served community are used to assess the electric power deficit during the damage absorption and recovery processes. Damage to the components of the EPSS and of the community‐built environment is evaluated using the seismic fragility functions. The restoration of the community electric power demand is evaluated using the seismic recovery functions. However, the postearthquake EPSS recovery process is modeled using an agent‐based model with two agents, the EPSS Operator and the Community Administrator. The resilience of the EPSS–community system is quantified using direct, EPSS‐related, societal, and community‐related indicators. Parametric studies are carried out to quantify the influence of different seismic hazard scenarios, agent characteristics, and power dispatch strategies on the EPSS–community seismic resilience. The use of the agent‐based modeling framework enabled a rational formulation of the postearthquake recovery phase and highlighted the interaction between the EPSS and the community in the recovery process not quantified in resilience models developed to date. Furthermore, it shows that the resilience of different community sectors can be enhanced by different power dispatch strategies. The proposed agent‐based EPSS–community system resilience quantification framework can be used to develop better community and infrastructure system risk governance policies.     

服务型制造网络的Holon协同需求评价方法

依据复杂网络理论分析服务型制造网络Holon协同需求问题，给出一种考虑以直觉正态模糊数表示且多Holon协同的服务型制造网络协同需求评价方法。首先，在区分Holon复合协同和递归协同基础上构建服务型制造网络协同需求评价指标体系；其次，考虑基于网络结构特征的Holon相似稳定性，根据服务型制造网络节点相似性测度分析Holon协同需求特征，并测算不同相似性测度修正的Holon网络结构熵；再次，建立面向服务型制造网络和Holon的有专家信息双向触动反馈机制，反馈包括评价指标和网络协同状况，反馈Holon信息包括基于服务型制造网络演化方向的Holon间协同需求建议和基于服务型制造网络现有状态的网络连通性Holon协同需求建议；最后由INFCWA（INFCWA_R）算子或INFCWG（INFCWG_R）算子分别对复合协同和递归协同评价信息集结并得出评价结论。方法设计过程通过例证分析说明根据服务型制造网络目标控制的Holon协同需求评价改进了群组评价效率。     

Price-setting newsvendor with strategic consumers

We consider a newsvendor who sells a single product over a single season with the objective of determining both the selling price and stock quantity to maximize the expected profit. The customers are strategic and we consider two demand cases: additive and multiplicative. For each case, we derive the newsvendor׳s optimal decisions and demonstrate that neglecting the price-sensitivity of demand leads the newsvendor to make sub-optimal decisions. Moreover, we show that under certain conditions, strategic consumer behavior may positively affect the newsvendor׳s optimal expected profit in the additive demand case.     

贵州社会管理创新:经验、问题与出路

近年来,贵州社会管理创新取得了一些成效,其主要经验是强化中国共产党在社会管理创新中的领导地位,发挥政府在社会管理创新中的主导作用,创新内容要关注民生。尽管如此,贵州社会管理创新还存在社会矛盾化解机制不健全、基层政府社会管理力量薄弱、社会组织培育机制不健全等问题,应通过完善源头治理机制、改革基层社会管理体制、优化社会组织培育机制等途径来解决。     

A Theory of Macroprudential Policies in the Presence of Nominal Rigidities

We propose a theory of monetary policy and macroprudential interventions in financial markets. We focus on economies with nominal rigidities in goods and labor markets and subject to constraints on monetary policy, such as the zero lower bound or fixed exchange rates. We identify an aggregate demand externality that can be corrected by macroprudential interventions in financial markets. Ex post, the distribution of wealth across agents affects aggregate demand and output. Ex ante, however, these effects are not internalized in private financial decisions. We provide a simple formula for the required financial interventions that depends on a small number of measurable sufficient statistics. We also characterize optimal monetary policy. We extend our framework to incorporate pecuniary externalities, providing a unified approach to both externalities. Finally, we provide a number of applications which illustrate the relevance of our theory.     

Shadow Insurance

Life insurers use reinsurance to move liabilities from regulated and rated companies that sell policies to shadow reinsurers, which are less regulated and unrated off‐balance‐sheet entities within the same insurance group. U.S. life insurance and annuity liabilities ceded to shadow reinsurers grew from $11 billion in 2002 to $364 billion in 2012. Life insurers using shadow insurance, which capture half of the market share, ceded 25 cents of every dollar insured to shadow reinsurers in 2012, up from 2 cents in 2002. By relaxing capital requirements, shadow insurance could reduce the marginal cost of issuing policies and thereby improve retail market efficiency. However, shadow insurance could also reduce risk‐based capital and increase expected loss for the industry. We model and quantify these effects based on publicly available data and plausible assumptions.     

不确定环境下的Supply-hub协同补货决策

个性化需求与零部件创新使得产品需求和补货提前期不确定,对供应链补货决策和运行成本产生重要影响。将提前期不确定因素引入Supply-hub协同补货研究中,探讨提前期随机和需求不确定情况下,考虑零部件配套性的三供应商单制造商生产两定制产品的Supply-hub协同补货决策问题;提出了三种补货策略,以供应链运行成本最小化为目标,建立不同策略下的供应链补货模型并求解最优补货批量和供应链最小运行成本;发现三种补货策略均存在唯一最优补货批量,基于Supply-hub的两种协同补货策略和基于分散决策的供应商独立补货策略各有优势,但基于Supply-hub的批量及时间协同的补货策略恒优于基于Supply-hub的集中补货策略。最后,通过MATLAB进行算例分析验证结论,发现基于Supply-hub的批量及时间协同的补货策略能有效降低需求不确定性带来的成本增加风险;通用件的提前期波动对于供应链期望运行成本的影响要高于定制件提前期波动的影响,因此在进行供应链补货策略选择时更加关注通用件提前期。