基于系统动力学的银行卡刷卡消费价格策略研究

银行卡刷卡消费系统是一个由网络运营商、发卡行、收单行、商户和消费者五个主体及相互作用组成的网络系统。为了使刷卡消费系统的定价策略能够有益于系统的长期发展,解决对刷卡消费价格的分析仅限于静态方面研究的局限,运用VENSIM软件,建立银行卡刷卡消费定价策略的系统动力学模型,并对模型的运行和模拟结果进行了动态分析,实证分析了银行卡刷卡消费各主体不同价格策略对刷卡消费主要指标的影响。     

实物期权理论在风险投资决策中的应用

在对传统的NPV法分析的基础上,提出风险投资项目含有的期权价值,并且结合期权定价理论,建立风险投资项目的实物期权定价模型,分析了实物期权理论在风险投资决策中两方面的应用。研究表明,实物期权理论更适于进行风险投资决策。     

信用衍生品定价及潜在风险研究综述

20世纪90年代以来信用衍生品迅速发展,已成为重要的风险管理工具。其蕴含的潜在风险与相关定价方法发展相互影响,共同构成信用衍生品理论研究的核心内容。现有研究成果主要集中在以下三方面:(1)信用衍生品定价问题,包括单名产品定价和多名产品定价;(2)潜在风险则包括借款人或贷款人的道德风险、柠檬问题等;(3)宏观研究则涉及信用衍生品对货币政策的影响以及信用衍生品市场同其他信用衍生市场的相互影响。     

基于利率平价关系的汇率模型

建立了基于利率平价关系的汇率模型，导出了汇率期权的定价公式，研究了该模型的检验问题和模型参数的估计问题，结果表明，在原测度下，该模型的统计推断问题难度很大，使用通常的时间序列分析方法不能得出令人满意的结论；而在等价鞅测度下讨论该模型的统计推断问题，大大降低了研究的难度．     

Uniformly adaptive estimation for models with arma errors

A semiparametric estimator based on an unknown density isuniformly adaptive if the expected loss of the estimator converges to the asymptotic expected loss of the maximum liklihood estimator based on teh true density (MLE), and if convergence does not depend on either the parameter values or the form of the unknown density. Without uniform adaptivity, the asymptotic expected loss of the MLE need not approximate the expected loss of a semiparametric estimator for any finite sample I show that a two step semiparametric estimator is uniformly adaptive for the parameters of nonlinear regression models with autoregressive moving average errors.     

用Black-Scholes期权定价模型评价知识管理投资

针对知识管理项目不确定性的特点,提出运用实物期权的方法对知识管理项目投资进行评价。在比较了实物期权和贴现现金流两种评价方法的基础上,分析了知识管理的实物期权特性,指出知识管理存在的期权形式,并分析了知识管理期权与美式看涨期权的对应关系,论证了实物期权评价知识管理投资的可行性。最后以算例的形式给出了Black-Scholes期权定价模型对知识管理项目的评价过程。     

Performance as a Basis for Price-setting in the Capital Goods Industry:: Concepts and Empirical Evidence

This paper discusses a new pricing strategy, which leads to a certain variability of prices as the supplier offers to fix prices to performance parameters of long-lasting industrial goods. The underlying idea is to give a signal of the supplier’s competence and/or to conclude a contract, which contains additional value for both parties to the market. Some theoretical findings are applied to this concept and lead to 13 hypotheses, especially dealing with the perceptions of the buyer. Empirical research covered 131 German mechanical engineering companies. The data were used to evaluate the use of performance-based pricing and test the hypotheses. The results show a mixed picture. Uncertainty-reducing effects are well perceived while other assumptions could not be confirmed. Based on the results recommendations are developed on how and when to apply performance-based pricing.     

商品期货便利收益的期权定价及实证检验

本文根据国外便利收益理论,深入研究便利收益的期权性质及其定价,并采用修正的Black-Scholes期权定价模型对中国期货便利收益进行分析.研究表明中国商品期货便利收益具备看涨期权的特性并可以运用期权定价模型对其定价,此外中国商品期货便利收益表现出与理论相异的特性,即呈现周期性的循环变化.     

Impact of Price Postponement on Capacity and Flexibility Investment Decisions

Investments in dedicated and flexible capacity have traditionally been based on demand forecasts obtained under the assumption of a predetermined product price. However, the impact on revenue of poor capacity and flexibility decisions can be mitigated by appropriately changing prices. While investment decisions need to be made years before demand is realized, pricing decisions can easily be postponed until product launch, when more accurate demand information is available. We study the effect of this price decision delay on the optimal investments on dedicated and flexible capacity. Computational experiments show that considering price postponement at the planning stage leads to a large reduction in capacity investments, especially in the more expensive flexible capacity, and a significant increase in profits. Its impact depends on demand correlation, elasticity and diversion, ratio of fixed to variable capacity costs, and uncertainty remaining at the times the pricing and production decisions are made.     

Lottery Decisions and Probability Weighting Function

This article analyzes the implications of basic lottery tests for the probability weighting function w(p). We first show that the w(p) function with one argument cannot accommodate three basic tests of lottery choice. We also discuss in detail the links between the w(p) function with one argument and the preference reversal paradox. In the last section we propose an evaluation function that accommodates the restrictions imposed by the tests and we provide an example of such function.