基于利率平价关系的汇率模型

建立了基于利率平价关系的汇率模型，导出了汇率期权的定价公式，研究了该模型的检验问题和模型参数的估计问题，结果表明，在原测度下，该模型的统计推断问题难度很大，使用通常的时间序列分析方法不能得出令人满意的结论；而在等价鞅测度下讨论该模型的统计推断问题，大大降低了研究的难度．     

Uniformly adaptive estimation for models with arma errors

A semiparametric estimator based on an unknown density isuniformly adaptive if the expected loss of the estimator converges to the asymptotic expected loss of the maximum liklihood estimator based on teh true density (MLE), and if convergence does not depend on either the parameter values or the form of the unknown density. Without uniform adaptivity, the asymptotic expected loss of the MLE need not approximate the expected loss of a semiparametric estimator for any finite sample I show that a two step semiparametric estimator is uniformly adaptive for the parameters of nonlinear regression models with autoregressive moving average errors.     

用Black-Scholes期权定价模型评价知识管理投资

针对知识管理项目不确定性的特点,提出运用实物期权的方法对知识管理项目投资进行评价。在比较了实物期权和贴现现金流两种评价方法的基础上,分析了知识管理的实物期权特性,指出知识管理存在的期权形式,并分析了知识管理期权与美式看涨期权的对应关系,论证了实物期权评价知识管理投资的可行性。最后以算例的形式给出了Black-Scholes期权定价模型对知识管理项目的评价过程。     

Performance as a Basis for Price-setting in the Capital Goods Industry:: Concepts and Empirical Evidence

This paper discusses a new pricing strategy, which leads to a certain variability of prices as the supplier offers to fix prices to performance parameters of long-lasting industrial goods. The underlying idea is to give a signal of the supplier’s competence and/or to conclude a contract, which contains additional value for both parties to the market. Some theoretical findings are applied to this concept and lead to 13 hypotheses, especially dealing with the perceptions of the buyer. Empirical research covered 131 German mechanical engineering companies. The data were used to evaluate the use of performance-based pricing and test the hypotheses. The results show a mixed picture. Uncertainty-reducing effects are well perceived while other assumptions could not be confirmed. Based on the results recommendations are developed on how and when to apply performance-based pricing.     

商品期货便利收益的期权定价及实证检验

本文根据国外便利收益理论,深入研究便利收益的期权性质及其定价,并采用修正的Black-Scholes期权定价模型对中国期货便利收益进行分析.研究表明中国商品期货便利收益具备看涨期权的特性并可以运用期权定价模型对其定价,此外中国商品期货便利收益表现出与理论相异的特性,即呈现周期性的循环变化.     

Impact of Price Postponement on Capacity and Flexibility Investment Decisions

Investments in dedicated and flexible capacity have traditionally been based on demand forecasts obtained under the assumption of a predetermined product price. However, the impact on revenue of poor capacity and flexibility decisions can be mitigated by appropriately changing prices. While investment decisions need to be made years before demand is realized, pricing decisions can easily be postponed until product launch, when more accurate demand information is available. We study the effect of this price decision delay on the optimal investments on dedicated and flexible capacity. Computational experiments show that considering price postponement at the planning stage leads to a large reduction in capacity investments, especially in the more expensive flexible capacity, and a significant increase in profits. Its impact depends on demand correlation, elasticity and diversion, ratio of fixed to variable capacity costs, and uncertainty remaining at the times the pricing and production decisions are made.     

Lottery Decisions and Probability Weighting Function

This article analyzes the implications of basic lottery tests for the probability weighting function w(p). We first show that the w(p) function with one argument cannot accommodate three basic tests of lottery choice. We also discuss in detail the links between the w(p) function with one argument and the preference reversal paradox. In the last section we propose an evaluation function that accommodates the restrictions imposed by the tests and we provide an example of such function.     

并购市场局部均衡分析和定价模式探讨

运用局部均衡分析方法,分析了并购市场特殊的供求曲线、局部均衡以及在完全信息和不完全信息两种条件下的封闭拍卖并购定价模型.目的在于考察并购市场的运行机制,以便保证并购的高效运行,充分发挥市场机制在配置存量资源方面的优势作用.     

有多个销售渠道的连续时间收益管理问题研究

研究了有多个销售渠道的连续时间收益管理问题.利用最优控制理论,建立了最大期望收益函数所满足的HJB最优方程,证明了最大期望收益是剩余商品数量的递增凹函数、是销售时间的递减凹函数,最优定价策略随剩余商品数量及销售时间递减;得到了不同销售渠道的最优定价之间所满足的一个关系式.最后,利用数值仿真的方法对不同销售渠道差别定价的效果进行了讨论.     

基于补偿合约的供应链定价与能力设计的协调问题研究

研究和分析了在需求不确定并且受价格影响的情况下,供应链中制造商与供应商的产品定价与能力设计的协调问题。制造商从供应商处采购用于产品生产的关键零部件,供应链面临的潜在需求服从随机分布,有效需求则受产品定价的影响。当供应商的生产能力出现约束时,制造商可以从外部其他渠道获取关键零部件,但是需要付出一个更高的采购价格。制造商确定产品的销售价格,供应商确定生产能力。分析比较了在集成供应链与独立决策的供应链中的定价与能力计划策略,提出了一种能够有效协调制造商和供应商的决策行为的补偿合约。最后,进行了数值分析,证明补偿合约的有效性。