节目试看对网络视频运营商市场策略影响研究

随着网络视频运营商收费节目试看的兴起，而节目试看对网络视频运营商诸如市场规模，利润等市场策略的影响所知甚少。本文在考虑网络用户情绪效用情况下，通过构建高质量视频运营商首播节目与后来跟进的低质量视频运营商播出该节目的博弈模型，研究高质量视频运营商首播节目之前提供节目试看对两个运营商收费模式下的节目最优收费价格和免费模式下的最优嵌入广告量以及视频节目提供模式选择的影响。研究表明，高质量视频运营商在节目首播之前提供节目充分试看能够实现节目最优收费价格最高，利润最大，因此节目充分试看是其最优策略；并且低质量运营商在其单位广告收益与用户单位广告"成本"满足一定条件下，高质量运营商提供的节目的充分试看能够减少低质量运营商总利润，因此避免低质量视频运营商搭乘节目试看的顺风车；高质量视频运营商提供节目充分试看情况下，高质量视频运营商只采取收费模式为其最优市场策略，低质量视频运营商采取免费模式为其最优市场策略。本文的研究成果对网络视频运营商日常运营有一定的管理学启示与应用价值。     

基于消费者效用的生鲜农产品供应链生鲜度激励机制研究

生鲜供应链整体生鲜度的提升对减少浪费、提高供应链整体盈利水平及社会福利有重要意义。本文基于消费者效用理论研究了两供应商和单一零售商组成的供应链系统，构建了单周期下生鲜农产品生鲜度激励模型，模型以供应商为领导者，采用Stackelberg博弈方法求解得到了均衡状态下供应商、零售商的最优定价策略及供应商新鲜度努力选择。研究结果表明，供应商和零售商利润与消费者价格敏感系数呈反向变化，与新鲜度敏感系数呈同向变化。在价格竞争市场，供应商保鲜努力程度和利润与价格替代率呈反向变化；在生鲜度竞争市场，供应商保鲜努力程度和利润与新鲜度替代率呈同向变化。基于研究结论，厂商及政府应当联手引导消费者的消费观念，尽可能减少由于信息不对称引致的道德风险，在市场价格替代率不变甚至降低的情形下，提高生鲜度替代率，使得消费者的意愿支付价格上升，提高自身讨价还价能力，获取更多利润。     

An exercise in futurity: servitude as pathway to young Filipino men’s education- to-work transition

This article examines how young Filipino men looking to work in international seafaring deploy servitude as a means of attaining education-to-work transition. It focuses on those applying to work for free as ‘utility men’ (gofer or flunkey) in Manila’s manning and crewing agencies that supply seafarers to ship operators around the world in exchange for the promise of boarding a ship. Based on participant observation and life history interviews, the article accounts for how they transform their servitude into diskarte – strategy by which they navigate the limited employment opportunities in the Philippines – by constructing their ‘utility manning’ as an informal and negotiated pathway to employment. The young Filipino men’s seeking and enduring servitude, geared towards gleaning better social possibilities, becomes a profoundly rational act of investing in and securing their future.     

Estimation of error probabilities in stochastic dominance

The process of using data to infer the existence of stochastic dominance is subject to sampling error. Kroll and Levy (1980), among others, have presented simulation results for several normal and lognormal distributions which show high error probabilities for a wide range of parameter values. This paper continues this line of research and uses simulation to estimate error probabilities. Distributions considered are a pair of normals and a pair of lognormals. Analysis of these distributions is made computationally feasible through theoretical results which reduce the number of parameters of the pair of distributions from four to two.     

Cautious Expected Utility and the Certainty Effect

Many violations of the independence axiom of expected utility can be traced to subjects' attraction to risk‐free prospects. The key axiom in this paper, negative certainty independence ([Dillenberger, 2010]), formalizes this tendency. Our main result is a utility representation of all preferences over monetary lotteries that satisfy negative certainty independence together with basic rationality postulates. Such preferences can be represented as if the agent were unsure of how to evaluate a given lottery p; instead, she has in mind a set of possible utility functions over outcomes and displays a cautious behavior: she computes the certainty equivalent of p with respect to each possible function in the set and picks the smallest one. The set of utilities is unique in a well defined sense. We show that our representation can also be derived from a “cautious” completion of an incomplete preference relation.     

影响消费者购买决策的产品属性效用实证分析

本文采用UTASTAR方法,以手机产品为例,从多属性效用这个新视角来评估决策这一因素,研究了七种手机产品对消费者的总效用、各属性的边际效用及各影响因素的重要程度.目前,产品属性影响力大小的获知主要依靠市场调研或网络调研,该文所采用的UTASTAR方法是市场调研方法的补充和完善.论文首先阐述了UTASTAR方法在研究消费者购买决策方面的优势,然后对通过网络挖掘获取的手机属性数据进行定量计算,结果各款手机的总效用排序与实际调查得到的消费者的关注度基本一致.另外,本文计算得到的属性边际效用和属性的权重,能够使营销人员和产品设计人员更好地把握手机产品的重要属性及其重要程度,有利于指导企业制定具有竞争力的产品和市场战略.     

试论劳动价值与效用价值的数量关系

劳动价值论和效用价值论是关于价值决定的两个最具代表性的理论,一般认为二者是互不相容的。文章从不易产生歧义的“使用价值”概念出发,把自然界和人类劳动对价值的贡献区别开来,进一步澄清了价值相关概念,并发现劳动价值与人工效用在数量上总是相等的。如果把劳动价值论和效用价值论融合起来,价值决定理论可能更为完整。     

Generalized Expected Utility, Heteroscedastic Error, and Path Dependence in Risky Choice

We evaluate the fit of several generalized expected utility models under homoscedasticity and three different heteroscedastic error structures for the data set first reported in Hey and Orme (1994). Standard chi-squared tests are used for nested tests, and both the Akaike (1973) information criterion and its consistent version (Hurvich and Tsai, 1989) are used for non-nested ranking of these models. A testing framework is developed that explicitly accounts for the path-dependent nature of the model selection problem. Not only does the selection of preference models depend on the error structure assumed, but the reverse is also true: the selection of the error structure depends on the preference structure assumed. An erratum to this article is available at .     

Reconciliation with the Utility of Chance by Elaborated Outcomes Destroys the Axiomatic Basis of Expected Utility Theory

Expected utility theory does not directly deal with the utility of chance. It has been suggested in the literature (Samuelson, 1952, Markowitz, 1959) that this can be remedied by an approach which explicitly models the emotional consequences which give rise to the utility of chance. We refer to this as the elaborated outcomes approach. It is argued that the elaborated outcomes approach destroys the possibility of deriving a representation theorem based on the usual axioms of expected utility theory. This is shown with the help of an example due to Markowitz. It turns out that the space of conceivable lotteries over elaborated outcomes is too narrow to permit the application of the axioms. Moreover it is shown that a representation theorem does not hold for the example.