Macroeconomic performance of inflation targeting in European and Asian emerging economies

The macroeconomic performance resulting from adopting an inflation targeting policy in emerging economies of Europe and Central Asia are examined. The research includes 26 countries in the period 1997–2019, with a special focus on the period 2008–2019. Our econometric analysis consists of two approaches: dynamic panel modeling and propensity score matching. The results suggest that macroeconomic performance has improved due to the inflation targeting monetary framework. We find that a policy of inflation targeting has been effective in reducing the inflation rate, inflation volatility, and GDP volatility. The results are particularly robust for the subperiod that started in 2008. Econometric results suggest that inflation targeting policy did not affect inflation persistence or GDP growth. Our results suggest that inflation targeting improves the macroeconomic performance of developing countries even when they only partially meet the standard requirements for its implementation.     

Part-time employment and worker health in the United States

A growing body of research has highlighted the consequences of part-time employment for workers’ health and well-being. However, these studies have yielded inconsistent results and relied on cross-sectional data. In addition, relatively little empirical research has explored whether the effect of working part-time on health varies by gender, particularly in the United States. Using longitudinal data from three waves of the General Social Survey panel (2010–2012–2014), our study examined the association between part-time employment and perceived health among U.S employees, and whether this association varied by gender. The results showed that part-time workers were less likely to report poor self-rated health than full-time workers, especially among males. The pattern of results was consistent across empirical approaches—including generalized estimating equations and random effects models, with an extensive set of covariates. Taken together, these findings suggest that for U.S. employees, working part-time appears to be beneficial or at least not detrimental to perceived health, which warrants further investigation.     

中国信息服务业集聚及其影响因素

以信息服务业集聚为研究对象,首先介绍了其整体发展状况,然后选取2004—2013年29省市的面板数据,以生产要素、区位因素、空间因素、政府因素和国际环境5个要素为立足点,构建了个体固定效应模型和误差修正后的长期和短期均衡模型,通过模型的对比,分析了产业聚集理论对信息服务业聚集的影响。结果显示:无论是短期还是长期,人力资本和对外开放水平对信息服务业集聚均具有显著影响,且人力资本的系数最大;信息化水平和城市规模在长期对信息服务业集聚影响显著;政府扶持力度仅在短期促进信息服务业集聚,长期影响效果不大。     

Wavelet‐Based Testing for Serial Correlation of Unknown Form in Panel Models

Wavelet analysis is a new mathematical method developed as a unified field of science over the last decade or so. As a spatially adaptive analytic tool, wavelets are useful for capturing serial correlation where the spectrum has peaks or kinks, as can arise from persistent dependence, seasonality, and other kinds of periodicity. This paper proposes a new class of generally applicable wavelet‐based tests for serial correlation of unknown form in the estimated residuals of a panel regression model, where error components can be one‐way or two‐way, individual and time effects can be fixed or random, and regressors may contain lagged dependent variables or deterministic/stochastic trending variables. Our tests are applicable to unbalanced heterogenous panel data. They have a convenient null limit N(0,1) distribution. No formulation of an alternative model is required, and our tests are consistent against serial correlation of unknown form even in the presence of substantial inhomogeneity in serial correlation across individuals. This is in contrast to existing serial correlation tests for panel models, which ignore inhomogeneity in serial correlation across individuals by assuming a common alternative, and thus have no power against the alternatives where the average of serial correlations among individuals is close to zero. We propose and justify a data‐driven method to choose the smoothing parameter—the finest scale in wavelet spectral estimation, making the tests completely operational in practice. The data‐driven finest scale automatically converges to zero under the null hypothesis of no serial correlation and diverges to infinity as the sample size increases under the alternative, ensuring the consistency of our tests. Simulation shows that our tests perform well in small and finite samples relative to some existing tests.     

The Time Series and Cross‐Section Asymptotics of Dynamic Panel Data Estimators

In this paper we derive the asymptotic properties of within groups (WG), GMM, and LIML estimators for an autoregressive model with random effects when both T and N tend to infinity. GMM and LIML are consistent and asymptotically equivalent to the WG estimator. When T/N→ 0 the fixed T results for GMM and LIML remain valid, but WG, although consistent, has an asymptotic bias in its asymptotic distribution. When T/N tends to a positive constant, the WG, GMM, and LIML estimators exhibit negative asymptotic biases of order 1/T, 1/N, and 1/(2N−T), respectively. In addition, the crude GMM estimator that neglects the autocorrelation in first differenced errors is inconsistent as T/N→c>0, despite being consistent for fixed T. Finally, we discuss the properties of a random effects pseudo MLE with unrestricted initial conditions when both T and N tend to infinity.     

移动通信产业市场结构与绩效关系研究——基于国际面板数据的实证分析

移动通信产业作为典型的政府管制产业,其市场结构与市场绩效的关系是管制部门制定管制政策的重要依据。以SCP范式为分析框架,运用42个国家2004-2009年的季度面板数据,研究了移动通信产业的市场结构与绩效之间的关系。实证研究显示：在控制了其他因素之后,赫希曼-赫菲德尔指数（HHI）与市场绩效呈现正向关系,表明集中的市场结构可以带来垄断利润;市场绩效与用户规模呈现非线性的倒U型关系,但规模经济仅在一定范围内存在,过大的规模反而带来不经济。     

影响上市公司董事会构成的因素分析——基于中国民营上市公司的实证分析

董事会作为公司治理的一种基本制度安排,其构成并不是外生给定的,而是受到公司特征、行业环境、制度背景等诸多因素的影响。故结合中国新兴加转轨的特殊经济背景,利用2004—2008年间196家中国上市公司的平衡面板数据检验了公司经营复杂性、监督成本、私人收益、CEO影响力、股权结构、制度环境六个因素对中国公司董事会构成的影响。研究发现：公司经营复杂性、监督成本、私人收益、CEO影响力四个因素对中国民营上市公司董事会构成的影响同国外已有结论存在很大差异;股权结构和制度环境是影响中国民营上市公司董事会构成的重要因素。     

地方政府行为与环境污染的空间面板分析

基于地方政府行为理论并提出地方政府行为对环境污染的影响假说,利用空间面板回归模型对1997--2009年中国29个省、市的面板数据进行实证研究。研究表明：地方政府的财政分权程度越大、寻租腐败程度越严重以及人均财政赤字水平程度越高,该地区的工业“三废”排放量也越大;工业的比重与工业“三废”的污染排放量成正比以及中国存在环境库兹涅茨曲线趋势的结论。     

国际贸易中计价货币选择决定因素的实证分析

基于20个国家的非平衡面板数据实证分析表明,经济实力、产品差异化程度、贸易市场份额、贸易地理方向、币值稳定性、国内金融市场深化程度等是决定一国货币能否在国际贸易中充当计价货币的主要因素。这些因素是一国经济实力、贸易实力和货币实力的集中体现,其中经济实力是基础,贸易实力是关键,货币实力是支撑。此外货币联盟也会提高区域统一货币在国际贸易中的计价地位。