美国次级抵押贷款危机的成因与效应分析——兼析对中国经济的影响与启示

美国次级抵押贷款危机形成的原因是多方面的,从利率浮动和资产证券化的角度分析,利率浮动是其形成的市场因素,而资产证券化是其形成的制度因素。许多经济学家认为,次贷危机是当前这场席卷全球的金融风暴的始作俑者,可见它对美国及世界各国经济所产生的负面效应和重大影响。在经济全球化背景下,作为新兴经济体的中国也必然会受其影响。因此,相机而动地采取积极的应对之策是稳定国内经济、保持经济增长的当务之急。同时,对次贷危机的深刻反思,也可为中国经济的发展带来许多启示。     

FDI对我国各地区经济增长的非线性效应分析

本文运用面板平滑转换(PSTR)模型研究国外直接投资(FDI)对我国各地区经济增长的非线性效应。选取了FDI及影响FDI的市场规模、基础设施、产业结构等8个变量作为解释变量构建单因素和多因素PSTR模型。结果表明我国经济增长与FDI之间存在着平滑转换机制效应;FDI对经济增长的影响是非线性的;FDI是我国各地区经济增长的充分条件,但不是必要条件。     

人口城市化的差别效应和城乡人力资源开发

城市化进程中的城乡人力资源开发 ,必须充分注意城市化的城乡差别效应。本文从生育率、文化素质、就业和人口分布等方面分析了城市化的差别人口学效应 ,提出了城市化推动型的城乡人力资源协调开发等观点     

国内外思潮对中国人口红利消失及老龄化危机的误导

西方印度因人口红利将超越中国说,无限夸大老龄化问题,将发展中国家人口问题最终变成了人口红利。文章评论这一思潮依据的若干西方研究,分析得出中国经济增长27%由人口红利贡献的国内研究存在严重瑕疵。分析指出,因未富先老中国老龄化效应必远弱于西方。迄今西方老龄化与增生失业而非劳动力短缺相伴随,这是经济转型期我国应真正引起高度关注的问题。文章认为从多方面看,随经济规模扩大,我国人口问题滞后效应明显进入充分展现期,人口政策如转向鼓励增加人口,将会是一次重大失误。     

基于卢卡斯模型的人力资本外溢效应研究——对重庆的实证检验

人力资本作为经济内生增长的重要因素，一方面直接参与到经济生产过程。对经济增长有直接作用．另一方面，还通过影响其他生产要素的生产率，对经济增长有间接作用。本文基于卢卡斯的人力资本外溢效应模型．实证检验了1990—2011年重庆人力资本的外溢效应。研究结果显示．样本期间重庆人力资本外溢效应的产出弹性十分显著，但由于人力资本自身的增长过于缓慢，其对经济增长的实际推动作用偏小：重庆经济增长主要依靠物质资本的推动，经济增长表现出典型的粗放型特征。为此，论文从人力资本开发、教育投入和劳动市场开拓等方面．提出了加强人力资本投资和积累以促进经济增长的对策建议．     

黄河重要水源涵养区跨区域协同保护与补偿基础问题探析

针对黄河重要水源涵养区,以高寒草地水源涵养服务效益为载体,开展黄河流域跨区域协同保护与补偿,协调处理保护者与受益者利益关系,实现生态保护目标,应是生态保护与补偿的主体内容。其中,辩证处理生态保护与补偿中人地补偿和人际补偿运作机理及作用对象,分清主次,理清补助、补贴、奖励和补偿缘由,定位跨区域协同保护与补偿所处阶段、承接内容及基础性条件,是开展横向生态保护与补偿的关键基础性问题。     

宪法原则的产生及其效力探讨

宪法原则是宪法学的基本范畴之一,也是产生具体宪法规范、体现宪法价值、指导宪政实践的最高准则。宪法原则的产生,源于表征和满足宪法正当性的需要,是对人类问题意识演进的高度抽象,是人类不断探索制衡政治权力的历史结果,也是以权力范畴为中心安排宪法制度的逻辑需要。宪法原则的效力指涉三个层面:宪法原则效力的纬度,指宪法原则的效力空间范围;宪法原则效力的向度,指宪法原则的拘束对象和作用领域;宪法原则的适度,指宪法原则的正当性和合法性。     

Generalizing the Welch Test To Non-Zero Hypotheses on the Variance Component in the One-Way Random Effects Model Under Variance Heterogeneity

In an unbalanced and heteroscedastic one-way random effects model of analysis of variance we consider hypotheses concerning the between group variance where in a classical set-up the hypothesis whether this variance component is zero is tested. We consider the still open problem of testing also extended hypotheses concerning this parameter and generalize the prominent Welch test to deal with these hypotheses, too.     

Growth curve models with restrictions on random parameters

In the classical growth curve setting, individuals are repeatedly measured over time on an outcome of interest. The objective of statistical modeling is to fit some function of time, generally a polynomial, that describes the outcome's behavior. The polynomial coefficients are assumed drawn from a multivariate normal mixing distribution. At times, it may be known that each individual's polynomial must follow a restricted form. When the polynomial coefficients lie close to the restriction boundary, or the outcome is subject to substantial measurement error, or relatively few observations per individual are recorded, it can be advantageous to incorporate known restrictions. This paper introduces a class of models where the polynomial coefficients are assumed drawn from a restricted multivariate normal whose support is confined to a theoretically permissible region. The model can handle a variety of restrictions on the space of random parameters. The restricted support ensures that each individual's random polynomial is theoretically plausible. Estimation, posterior calculations, and comparisons with the unrestricted approach are provided.     

The Danish psychosocial work environment and symptoms of stress: the main, mediating and moderating role of sense of coherence

The aim of this cross-sectional study was to explore the main, mediating and moderating role of sense of coherence (SOC) on stress symptoms and on the association between perceived psychosocial work environment and stress symptoms. The sample includes 2053 Danish employees from 52 workplaces. Hierarchical regression models were applied for each measure of stress. The results strongly supported the presence of a main effect for SOC. People with high levels of SOC experienced fewer stress symptoms. A mediating effect of SOC was also supported. Thus, SOC in part explained the association between work environment and stress symptoms. In addition, some support for a moderating effect of SOC was found, suggesting that people with higher SOC coped more efficiently with work environmental strain that people with lower SOC. Taken together the regression models explained 11-32% of the variance in stress symptoms. The results suggest that measures of individual factors such as SOC should be included in analyses of the effects of work environmental factors on stress and well-being.