“法官后语”的效用分析——以“成本”和“收益”为视角

"法官后语"是司法裁判文书改革进程中出现的新生事物,一些学者认为"法官后语"具有案结事了,实现社会和谐的功能,因此被当作是司法裁判文书创新的典范。但是一系列的收益要考虑成本的增加以及理想中的收益能否转化为现实中的收益。此外,"法官后语"是否符合司法裁判文书改革的方向也值得商榷,笔者重点探讨以上几方面的问题。     

城市化的城乡差别效应和城乡协调发展

城市化作为人口和地域的乡 -城转化过程 ,必然会对城市和乡村两个方面产生各种差别效应。深入研究这种差别效应 ,对统筹城乡发展 ,具有重要意义。本文主要利用 2 0 0 0年人口普查省内迁移有关数据 ,分析乡 -城迁移体现于收入水平、年龄结构、生育水平、受教育程度、劳动就业、人口分布等特征的城乡差别效应。认为全面建设小康社会 ,必须充分注意城市化的差别效应对城乡协调发展的影响 ,实施城乡协调型的城市化战略 ,走城市化推动型的城乡协调发展道路。     

对新型生育文化效应的实证分析

新型生育文化是一种与传统生育文化既有联系又有根本区别的现代生育文化 ,它的效应的产生和发挥对人口与社会经济发展具有十分突出的意义。本文对我国新型生育文化效应发挥情况进行了初步的实证研究 ,主要涉及到新型生育文化效应的指标设置、运用、问卷调查分析以及促进效应有效发挥的模式特征。     

近代粤商对百色经济文化的影响

百色地处桂西右江上游,是滇黔桂三省区交界处,属于典型的老、少、边、山、穷地区,但其城市语言却为粤语,主要原因为近代大量粤商沿着右江进入百色城经商所带来的影响。     

对我国环境影响评价中公众参与的思考

公众参与对于环境影响评价的实施有着至关重要的意义。我国新出台的《环境影响评价法》有关公众参与的内容和程序方面的规定明显不足 ,扩大公众参与的范围 ,设计尽可能明确具体的公众参与程序 ,尤其是相当重要的信息公开程序、说明会程序、听证程序、环境影响评价文件审查程序等 ,并辅之以司法审查的保障机制 ,才能完善我国环境影响评价中的公众参与制度 ,从而使环境影响评价在实践中真正发挥作用     

中国银行业竞争战略研究

中国正式加入WTO对于处于金融变革时期的中国银行业而言 ,既面临着巨大的挑战和竞争 ,又面临着巨大的发展空间 ,机遇与挑战并存 ,如何应对这种超竞争环境 ,制定行之有效的竞争战略 ,提高中国银行业的内外竞争力 ,就成为亟待解决的问题。     

Modelling Trends and Inequality in Small Area Mortality

This paper considers the modelling of mortality rates classified by age, time, and small area with a view to developing life table parameters relevant to assessing trends in inequalities in life chances. In particular, using a fully Bayes perspective, one may assess the stochastic variation in small area life table parameters, such as life expectancies, and also formally assess whether trends in indices of inequality in mortality are significant. Modelling questions include choice between random walk priors for age and time effects as against non-linear regression functions, questions of identifiability when several random effects are present in the death rates model, and the choice of model when both within and out-of-sample performance may be important. A case study application involves 44 small areas in North East London and mortality in five sub-periods (1986-88, 1989-91, 1992-94, 1995-97, 1998-2000) between 1986 and 2000, with the final period used for assessing out-of-sample performance.     

Beyond Welfare Regimes: From Empirical Typology to Conceptual Ideal types

The welfare regime concept introduced by Gøsta Esping‐Andersen in 1990 is still widely used in comparative political research, although it has been challenged extensively both on empirical and analytical grounds. Besides the fact that many empirical welfare states seem to be hybrid cases of the established welfare regime categories, the argument that welfare regimes exist not only at the country level but also at the local level and at the level of particular welfare programmes has recently gained momentum in the academic literature. In this article, it is argued that the welfare regime concept should be stripped of its historical‐geographical connotations and turned into an ideal‐typical approach. To this end, a three‐dimensional model is proposed here that allows for analyzing the attributes of welfare states, welfare regions and welfare programmes on three analytical dimensions: welfare culture, welfare institutions and socio‐structural effects.     

The validity of the occupational stress indicator

During the last two decades two potent groups of predictors for work-related musculoskeletal problems have been identified: physical work load and poor psychosocial working conditions. However, little is known about their combined effects. In this study the buffering effect of control at work with respect to the negative effects of psychological demands and physical work load on musculoskeletal problems is examined. All study variables were sampled from 431 people working in geriatric nursing homes in Germany by means of questionnaires. Main effects and interactions were tested with multiple regression analysis. The results showed that control buffered the effects of high psychological demands, but not of high physical work load; the buffering effect of control was observed only when physical work load was low. The combined effects of demands and physical work load were over-additive. Thus, the power of different predictors for musculoskeletal symptoms depended on the level of other predictors. This suggests that the efficiency of certain strategies for the prevention of musculoskeletal problems is likely to depend on the level of risk factors, with different strategies being appropriate for different levels of risk.     

民生目标下政府的支出竞争和福利效应

本文研究不同政绩考核目标下地方政府间财政支出决策的互动机制,使用全国地级城市面板数据和空间杜宾模型估计地方政府支出反应方程,并利用民生类公共支出竞争的空间效应拟合值估计其对居民福利的影响。空间计量分析表明,同省辖区内的城市在基本公共服务支出政策方面存在相互模仿攀比,民生类公共支出竞争不仅提高了辖区民生类公共服务水平,而且牵动了各辖区的居民消费。研究结果为如何完善地方官员考核体系和提高民众福利提供了政策启示。