大数据背景下非概率抽样的统计推断问题

利用大数据进行抽样,很多情况下抽样框的构造比较困难,使得抽取的样本属于非概率样本,难以将传统的抽样推断理论应用到非概率样本中,如何解决非概率抽样的统计推断问题,是大数据背景下抽样调查面临的严重挑战。本文提出了解决非概率抽样统计推断问题的基本思路：一是抽样方法,可以考虑基于样本匹配的样本选择、链接跟踪抽样方法等,使得到的非概率样本近似于概率样本,从而可采用概率样本的统计推断理论;二是权数的构造与调整,可以考虑基于伪设计、模型和倾向得分等方法得到类似于概率样本的基础权数;三是估计,可以考虑基于伪设计、模型和贝叶斯的混合概率估计。最后,以基于样本匹配的样本选择为例探讨了具体解决方法。     

The turn to the self: From “Big Character Posters” to YouTube videos1

This paper explores the process by which user‐created content in contemporary China has evolved from being appropriated as a weapon of political mobilization and accusation to serving as a vehicle of independent self‐representation. The analysis is set in the context of the social, political and economic metamorphosis that China has undergone in the past five decades and foregrounds the dynamics of political, economic and technological forces transforming Chinese media. The metaphor of “the wall” is used to chart the contours of the struggle for self‐expression and representation. The paper concludes with a brief discussion of the political and social implications of the Internet and networked user created media content for China.     

会计信息披露中的“洗大澡”现象之探析

当前证券市场普遍存在着信息失真现象,而资产减值准备对"洗大澡"现象有一定地推动作用,为此在会计准则的相关基础上就计提资产减值准备对会计数据的影响作了深入探讨。同时,结合相关上市公司的案例分析了舞弊企业如何利用计提资产减值准备操纵会计利润、粉饰会计报表以达到盈余管理的目的。此外,针对会计法规准则中的灵活性、不完善性,笔者指出其被操纵的可能性,并提出了相应的规避措施,为"洗大澡"的治理提供了一定参考价值。     

Streetwise sales and the social order of city streets

This paper analyses how a Big Issue vendor approached passers-by and how they responded, how recognizable courses of social and economic activity were interactionally produced from initiation through to some conclusion. The paper recovers how the vendor's work was contextually embedded in the urban landscape, how it was constrained by, and actively shaped, the social order of the street. Drawing on video-audio recordings the paper contributes to a growing body of ethnographic and ethnomethodological research which has emphasized the embodied, contingent and interactional character of economic activity. By examining such materials, the paper is well positioned to describe how the vendor found his market on the street, social interventions that propelled passers-by into buying behaviour. The paper sheds light on now familiar encounters which occur millions of times each week in the UK and beyond.     

中国大城市人口居住郊区化现状、问题与对策

人口居住郊区化对城市发展具有有利与不利两方面的影响,以北京、上海、广州、杭州、苏州、沈阳、大连等大城市为例,可以总结出当前我国大城市人口居住郊区化的现状特点与成因机制,中国与西方国家人口居住郊区化有同有异,为适应城市郊区化应采取一定的城市规划与管理对策。     

美剧《生活大爆炸》喜剧效果中违反合作原则的分析

为保证会话正常进行,谈话双方必须共同遵守一些基本原则,达到双方理解,共同配合。然而生活中,往往会出现违背这一系列准则的会话,阴差阳错,产生令人捧腹的幽默效果。2007年开播至今的美国情景喜剧《生活大爆炸》,赢得广大观众的喜好,其中的幽默和喜剧效果在很大程度上是违反合作原则而造成的。本文通过联系合作原则分析具体脚本,为英语爱好者提供更深层次的欣赏角度,并对字幕翻译提供一点启示。     

Leadership in the digital era: A review of who,what, when,where, and why

Leadership as a social influence process has always involved a complex set of phenomena that demands an interdisciplinary lens. Leadership scholarship has now entered into a digital era. In a digital era, the overall phenomenon is changing, as are the tools through which we study it, demanding a new “lens” through which we view leadership. Yet, this raises the question, to what extent is leadership different in a digital era? In acknowledgement of this trend, a special issue was commissioned at The Leadership Quarterly that sought to stimulate the imagination of leadership scholars and practitioners. In the current work, we begin with a brief review of who, what, when, where and why of digital leadership. We cover leadership in informal contexts (e.g., social media), generalization from face-to-face to virtual contexts, computational modeling, the leveraging of technology (e.g., machine learning; Big Data), as well methodological how-to guides. We then plot a path forward for leadership scholars in the dawn of the digital era.     

共和国知识分子的颂歌——评《大树西迁》

<大树西迁>是陕西省戏曲研究院精心打造的秦腔现代戏,她以苏毅、孟冰茜一家三代西迁50年的奋斗历程为线索,再现了西安交大50年的风云变幻,讴歌了共和国知识分子"哪里有事业哪里有爱,哪里就是家"的生存理念,展示了知识分子对祖国、对人民、对事业及对亲人的至深情感.剧作构思精巧,舞台效果美轮美奂.     

《大宅门》的文化特征

电视连续剧《大宅门》以其深厚而独特的文化底蕴深深地吸引着广大观众。这种宅门文化作为一种独特的文化类型,是物质文化、艺术文化、精神文化3个层面的结合体,具有庄重和谐、雅俗共赏、闲适自在的特征,既有皇家色彩,更具平民特色。     

应用白纸测图技术测绘大比例尺草地群落分布图的探讨

在牧区生产方面 ,大比例尺草地植被分布图是非常重要的基础资料 ,对于划区轮牧、草场轮刈以及草地权属落实等都是最基础的档案 ,然而大比例尺植被图 ( 1:50 0 0 )的测绘却很少有人探讨 ,本文从生产发展需要出发 ,试用测绘学方法白纸测图技术 ,进行 1:50 0 0植物群落分布图的测绘研究 ,此方法可以概括为草群分类、样地选择、界线勾绘、建立控制网、样地扩展、分板实测、联绘成图等步骤