Discovering hidden statistical issues through individual-level models in ecological studies

ABSTRACT

In ecological studies, individual inference is made based on results from ecological models. Interpretation of the results requires caution since ecological analysis on group level may not hold in the individual level within the groups, leading to ecological fallacy. Using an ecological regression example for analyzing voting behaviors, we highlight that the explicit use of individual-level models is crucial in understanding the results of ecological studies. In particular, we clarify three relevant statistical issues for each individual-level models: assessment of the uncertainty of parameter estimates obtained from a wrong model, the use of shrinkage estimation method for simultaneous estimation of many parameters, and the necessity of sensitivity analysis rather than adhering to one seemingly most compelling assumption.     

Imagined mosque communities in Russia: Central Asian migrants in Moscow

ABSTRACT

The article aims to shed light on mosque communities in Russia through the example of mosques frequented by Moscovites and by Central Asian migrants. I will make use of Anderson’s theoretical framework of ‘imagined community’ in analysing the material presented in the article. The main argument is that there are no real mosque communities and rather that the sense of community formed around mosques is imagined. There are nevertheless a variety of networks, groups and institutions within and around mosques. The article is based on fieldwork conducted in 2016 and 2017.     

A transient presence: black visitors and sojourners in Imperial Germany, 1884–1914

The onset of German colonial rule in Africa brought increasing numbers of black men and women to Germany. Pre-1914 the vast majority of these Africans can best be described as visitors or sojourners and the black population as a whole was a transient one. This makes recovering their presence in the archival record exceptionally difficult and it is not surprising that the existing historiography is dominated by biographies of well-documented lives. Through utilising a number of recently digitised archival materials, particularly the Hamburg Passenger Lists, this article draws upon a database with information on 1094 individuals from sub-Saharan Africa who spent time in Germany over the period 1884–1914 in order to widen our understanding of the black presence as a whole. It offers new insights and detail into the composition and character of this fluid population – where visitors came from, why they came to Germany, their age on arrival – as well as more accurate information on the temporal and spatial distribution of African visitors.     

An Ecological Model for Quantitative Risk Assessment for Schistosomiasis: The Case of a Patchy Environment in the Coastal Tropical Area of Northeastern Brazil

We developed a stochastic model for quantitative risk assessment for the Schistosoma mansoni (SM) parasite, which causes an endemic disease of public concern. The model provides answers in a useful format for public health decisions, uses data and expert opinion, and can be applied to any landscape where the snail Biomphalaria glabrata is the main intermediate host (South and Central America, the Caribbean, and Africa). It incorporates several realistic and case‐specific features: stage‐structured parasite populations, periodic praziquantel (PZQ) drug treatment for humans, density dependence, extreme events (prolonged rainfall), site‐specific sanitation quality, environmental stochasticity, monthly rainfall variation, uncertainty in parameters, and spatial dynamics. We parameterize the model through a real‐world application in the district of Porto de Galinhas (PG), one of the main touristic destinations in Brazil, where previous studies identified four parasite populations within the metapopulation. The results provide a good approximation of the dynamics of the system and are in agreement with our field observations, i.e., the lack of basic infrastructure (sanitation level and health programs) makes PG a suitable habitat for the persistence and growth of a parasite metapopulation. We quantify the risk of SM metapopulation explosion and quasi‐extinction and the time to metapopulation explosion and quasi‐extinction. We evaluate the sensitivity of the results under varying scenarios of future periodic PZQ treatment (based on the Brazilian Ministry of Health's plan) and sanitation quality. We conclude that the plan might be useful to slow SM metapopulation growth but not to control it. Additional investments in better sanitation are necessary.     

海州方言中吴方言词语例释及成因分析

海州方言属于江淮方言中的通泰地区海伊小区，其中存在众多的吴方言词语。在《明清吴语词典》里，这些吴方言词语与海州方言词语在词性、词义方面差异不大。这种情况，是明初以来大量江浙人迁至海州地区与当地居民大杂居小聚居后产生的新方言景观。     

“生态整体主义”对文学批评的意义

“生态整体主义”对文学批评的意义表现在文学批评标准和文学批评理论思维方式这两个方面；是对这两个方面可能存在的“中心论”与“二元论”的超越!只有不预设中心，才能平等对待不同的文学批评对象；只有将线性的、孤立的、有序的思维拓展到整体论的、复杂性的思维，文学批评才可能具有创新意味。     

Not without them: realising the sustainable development goals for women migrant workers

ABSTRACT

Drawing on multiple data sources, including key informant interviews, participant observation and archival study, this paper provides an analysis of the civil society’s role in foregrounding the agenda of women migrants in migration and development (M&D) fora, and reflects on its role in realising the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Yet, the dominant narrative within the state-led Global Forum on Migration and Development (GFMD) tends to be a gender-blind migration for development approach, which emphasises national-level economic growth at the centre of migration processes, while negating the subjectivities of women migrants and neglecting their contributions to the global economy; this approach diverts attention to a narrow focus on macro-economic development through forms of financial remittances. Based on an examination of the GFMD as a site for gender mainstreaming M&D, we reflect on lessons learned as we look forward to achieving the SDGs. We argue that while the SDGs include some significant provisions for women in migration, only critical civil society advocacy and activism networked within grassroots organisations can address the structural changes necessary (such as a re-articulation of the care economy to value economic contributions of women’s reproductive work) to transform and improve the lived realities of women in migration and realise the SDGs in a manner that fosters their empowerment.     

西部六城市流动人口调查综合报告

自中央实施"西部大开发"发展战略以来,在西部省区基础设施和许多行业的大量投资吸引了大量来自东部和邻近农村的流动人员。我国西部是少数族群聚居区,在发展过程中各民族之间存在相互协作的广阔空间,也存在发展机会和利益分配方面的相互竞争关系。为了调查和分析近年来西部的人口流动及其对当地族群关系的影响,我们在西部六个重要城市开展了流动人口的问卷调查。本文以这次问卷调查的数据为基础,系统地分析了西部大城市中流动人口的基本特征、就业状况、收入与消费情况以及他们与当地居民之间的交往。这些量化分析的研究成果,将便于我们进一步深入分析"西部大开发"过程中人口流动对当地经济建设、社会生活和族际交往所带来的影响。     

制度与非制度因素对农民工落户城镇意愿的影响

农民工能否落户城镇对我国的新型城镇化建设有重大的现实影响。利用2013年全国流动人口动态监测数据,从制度性因素和非制度性因素两方面对农民工的落户城镇意愿进行了探讨。实证研究发现：社会保险状况及学龄子女是否在本地就学会显著影响农民工的落户意愿,表明制度性因素的重要;从社会网络视角来看,基于传统的先赋性场域网络如亲属网对农民工的落户意愿无显著影响,而基于现代社会的自致性场域网络如朋友网、行政组织网、工作同事网则显著提高了农民工落户城镇的意愿。     

Macro-conditions and immigrants' happiness: Is moving to a wealthy country all that matters?

Migrants look for a better life. In what kind of country will they live happiest? Many migrants aspire to move to wealthy countries, but non-economic factors might be important as well in making a country livable for migrants. This issue is addressed here by examining the impact of macroeconomic conditions and non-economic macro-conditions (good governance and a pleasant social climate) on immigrants' happiness in twenty European nations. We find that immigrants' happiness depends both on economic and non-economic macro-conditions. The social climate is especially important, particularly in terms of a positive attitude in society towards migrants. Our findings imply that the choice of destination country matters for migrants’ happiness and that the discrepancy between migration motives and migration outcomes may constrain immigrants from maximizing subjective gains via migration.