Bayesian population reconstruction of female populations for less developed and more developed countries

We show that Bayesian population reconstruction, a recent method for estimating past populations by age, works for data of widely varying quality. Bayesian reconstruction simultaneously estimates age-specific population counts, fertility rates, mortality rates, and net international migration flows from fragmentary data, while formally accounting for measurement error. As inputs, Bayesian reconstruction uses initial bias-reduced estimates of standard demographic variables. We reconstruct the female populations of three countries: Laos, a country with little vital registration data where population estimation depends largely on surveys; Sri Lanka, a country with some vital registration data; and New Zealand, a country with a highly developed statistical system and good quality vital registration data. In addition, we extend the method to countries without censuses at regular intervals. We also use it to assess the consistency of results between model life tables and available census data, and hence to compare different model life table systems.     

公元前6世纪－公元3世纪吴地的居民变迁与文化转型

从公元前 6世纪到公元 3世纪 ,在吴地先是越灭吴 ,后是楚灭越 ,再是秦灭楚 ,接着汉灭秦 ,居民发生了多次置换与变迁 ,文化模式也随之屡屡更迭与转型 ,最终汇入汉文化的洪流之中 ,成为汉文化的一个组成部分与区域类型     

Disarming the War of the Growth Machines: A Panel Study

Intercommunity variation in growth machine activities, including the manipulation of the business climate and vertical integration with state economic development programs, net migration, and land use change are examined using a sample of 96 small urban places. A panel design and key informant methodology, 1970–90, permit cross-sectional and longitudinal observation. Using regression analysis with appropriate statistical controls, the research indicates that growth machines, particularly those in affluent communities, do intensify land uses. The business climate also negatively affects changes in business and industrial land uses as well as net migration. Some local efforts may not affect growth until the subsequent decade. The research suggests that growth machine activities are intensifying and may be exacerbating social inequality between places, especially affluent residential communities and declining working-class communities in the old industrial belt.     

中国人口迁移和人口流动的分类界定

针对目前中国关于人口迁移和人口流动的界定和术语使用十分混乱的现象 ,在对已有的人口迁移和人口流动分类进行考察和探讨的基础上 ,以中国的户籍制度为背景 ,提出了一种人口迁移和人口流动的分类方法 ,并从多个角度对所做分类的含义和应用进行了说明     

楚公族先祖的居地及其南迁

文献记载和考古发现表明 ,楚公族的始祖是祝融 ,其嫡祖是季连 ,祝融部落集团的早期居地在今河南嵩山地区双洎河流域一带 ;季连部落初居于今河南滑县东 ,继之移居今山东曹县东南。自穴熊以后至鬻熊之世这一历史阶段中 ,季连部落至少发生过三次迁徙 ,其时间分别在夏代前期、夏商之际和商末周初 ,每一次迁徙都是一次分流 ,即有的迁往江汉地区 ,有的踯躅于中原。鬻熊率部南迁 ,是季连部落最后也是最大规模的一次南迁     

改土归流后的昭通屯垦

鄂尔泰在滇东北实行的武力改流将雍正朝的改土归流推向了最高潮 ,却使清王朝在这些地区的统治陷入了危机 :频繁的变乱和对变乱的血腥屠杀 ,使改土归流的成果面临流产。在此危急关头 ,高其倬再任云贵总督 ,在改土归流地区推行善后措施 ,巩固了改土归流的成果 ,其中一个成功范例就是昭通地区进行的移民屯垦。他采取的一系列措施使昭通的社会经济在较短时期内得到了迅速恢复 ,彻底改变了昭通的社会面貌 ,为这一地区后来的发展奠定了基础 ,是雍正朝成功巩固改土归流成果的典型案例     

Dynamic path analysis—a new approach to analyzing time-dependent covariates

In this article we introduce a general approach to dynamic path analysis. This is an extension of classical path analysis to the situation where variables may be time-dependent and where the outcome of main interest is a stochastic process. In particular we will focus on the survival and event history analysis setting where the main outcome is a counting process. Our approach will be especially fruitful for analyzing event history data with internal time-dependent covariates, where an ordinary regression analysis may fail. The approach enables us to describe how the effect of a fixed covariate partly is working directly and partly indirectly through internal time-dependent covariates. For the sequence of times of event, we define a sequence of path analysis models. At each time of an event, ordinary linear regression is used to estimate the relation between the covariates, while the additive hazard model is used for the regression of the counting process on the covariates. The methodology is illustrated using data from a randomized trial on survival for patients with liver cirrhosis.     

农村外出妇女的生育意愿分析——基于鄂州、黄石、仙桃三地数据

本文利用2009年2月在鄂州、黄石、仙桃农村外出和未外出育龄妇女的调查数据,通过列联分析和logistic二元回归分析,从四个方面分别考察了外出与未外出育龄妇女生育意愿的关系及其影响因素。结果发现．育龄妇女的意愿子女数主要受其年龄、受教育程度、职业状况等个人特征的影响,外出过的妇女的意愿子女数要显著少于未外出过的妇女,这种差异主要是由于外出妇女与未外出妇女本身的结构差异所引起的,外出本身对育龄妇女的意愿子女数并没有显著作用;在生育目的上,外出与未外出妇女存在显著性差异,外出能弱化传统思想在妇女生育动机中的作用;在意愿生育性别和意愿生育时间这两个方面外出和未外出妇女没有显著性的差异。     

藏彝走廊的汉族移民与汉藏互动——以九龙为个案的考察研究

族群迁徙是影响藏彝走廊历史与文化特征的重要因素。因各种原因,自清代中叶以来大量汉族迁入九龙地区。汉藏通过通婚与经济利益互补等方式构成了相互依存的族群关系。汉族移民入赘藏家,为二者的文化交流提供了一个平台,汉藏文化的交流反过来又密切了相互关系,促进了汉藏民族的交融。汉藏之间的交流与融合是双向进行的,并且他们也相对地固守与改变着自身的文化。     

Negative impact induced by foreign workers: Evidence in Malaysian construction sector

Though foreign workers served to overcome the labor shortage in the Malaysian construction market, over-dependence on foreign workers and the negative impacts induced have become a serious social problem. The aims of this research are to identify those negative impacts induced by foreign workers in the Malaysian construction market and to determine strategies in minimizing these negative impacts. Data were collected through a structured interview and survey. The questionnaires were delegated to professionals in construction projects who have direct contacts with foreign workers. Only respondents from those companies registered under the CIDB grade G7 were chosen for this survey. There were 117 sets of questionnaires completed and analyzed through the structured interviews. The three principal factors attracting foreign workers to the Malaysian construction market are “Preference of the employers”, “Lifestyle and working conditions”, and “Unattractiveness of the career pathway”. The main negative impacts induced by foreign workers are “Over-dependence on foreign workers”, “Increment in criminal activities or social problems”, and “Existence of illegal workers”. This research proposes that strategies such as “Attract local workers into the construction industry”, “Industrialized Building Systems”, “Eliminate illegal migration”, and “Improve governance structure” would be successful in minimizing negative impacts induced by foreign workers.