环境信息披露的污染减排效应评估

本文利用我国2008年正式实施环境信息披露制度这一外生冲击构造准自然实验,基于2004-2017年我国285个城市的面板数据,通过双重差分法系统评估环境信息披露对工业污染物排放的影响。克服环境信息披露的测量困难与内生性问题,首次考察环境信息披露的污染减排效果,并借助数理模型对其影响机制进行规范阐释。研究发现,环境信息披露能够显著降低工业污染物排放水平,且该影响具有一定的时滞性和长期性;同时,减排作用会随地区环境污染程度和环境规制力度的增强而呈现递增规律;此外,机制分析的结果表明,其传导机制主要来自于产业结构转型和减排技术进步。为验证研究结论的稳健性,本文提供了平行趋势、工具变量、安慰剂等多种方法的检验结果。本文的研究在经验上丰富了环境信息披露与环境污染治理之间关系的相关讨论,为提升我国环境污染治理水平、打赢污染防治攻坚战提供有益的政策启示。     

环境规制强化的经济增长效应与机制研究

基于中国275个地级市2004-2018年的面板数据,以环境空气质量新标准的实施为准自然试验,采用渐进双重差分方法,实证研究环境-经济双重红利效应的理论依据及实现路径。研究发现,环境规制强化能显著促进地区经济增长,结论在经过一系列稳健性检验后依然成立。并且该效应会随着地区经济水平提高而呈现边际递增的规律。机制研究发现,环境规制强化会通过增加政府公共支出、倒逼企业创新、促进公众消费及人才流入提高地区经济发展水平。     

关于渭河流域实施排污权交易制度的立法建议

从相关立法看,对渭河流域水污染的治理主要采取了传统的行政方式。为提高渭河水污染治理效率,促进陕西经济社会的可持续发展,有必要借鉴美国和我国上海、江苏等地比较成熟的做法,采用市场的方法即排污权交易来治理渭河流域水污染,这有利于促进企业技术革新,降低整个社会的治理成本,比单纯的行政方法更为迅速和有效。因此,应进行地方立法,规定可交易污染物的范围、排污权的初始分配方式、交易的程序等,以规范排污权交易市场;同时,确定渭河的环境容量总量以确定可供分配的指标,构建信息平台以降低交易费用及保障公民的知情权。     

江西省城市发展水平的分析及评估

依据灰色系统原理 ,采用灰色定权聚类方法对江西省 11个城市的城市化发展水平进行评估 ,聚类的权重采用层次分析法确定 ,评价指标包含城市化水平、GDP、GDP年均增长率、城镇居民人均可支配收入和人均可支配收入年均增长率。并对评价结果进行了分析和讨论。     

试论中国共产党执政方式转变的科学取向

中国共产党作为执政党和社会主义事业的领导核心,在当代中国政治体系中处于中枢地位。党的执政,决定着中华民族伟大复兴的进程。我们党历经革命、建设和改革三个时期,已经成为领导人民掌握全国政权并长期执政的党,成为对外开放和发展社会主义市场经济条件下领导国家建设的党,党的执政环境正发生深刻变化,执政方式也正随着新的历史条件的变化而发生重大转变。在科学发展观的指导下坚持科学执政、民主执政、依法执政,有利于党的执政能力的提高和党和国家建设事业的全面推进。     

投资银行市场风险管理的VaR方法研究

风险价值方法(V alue at R isk)是近几年发展起来的用以度量和控制金融风险的计量模型。文章使用V aR模型度量了投资银行证券投资业务中的市场风险,应用上海证券交易所的实际数据,具体计算出上证指数的V aR时间序列,论证了应用该时间序列来评估风险大小的方法,为风险价值法在我国投资银行市场风险管理中的推广应用提供参考。     

月度工业生产发展速度指标解读：差异比较与经验启示 ——以OECD国家为例

 正确解读统计指标是准确理解和把握统计数据意义的关键所在。本文从指标的名称、定义、计算方法、空间规定和基础指标获得方式等方面,对OECD国家的工业生产发展速度指标进行了全面解读,以期从中得出经验与启示。     

A lost family-planning regime in eighteenth-century Ceylon

Based on Dutch colonial registers (thombos), this paper reconstructs fertility for two districts in Ceylon, 1756–68. It overcomes challenges in data quality by establishing the outer bounds of plausible estimates in a series of scenarios. Among these, total fertility rates (TFRs) averaged 5.5 in one district, but only 2.7 in the other. These figures exclude the victims of infanticide, a custom noted in European travelogues between about 1660 and 1820. Sex ratios among children differed depending on the number of older siblings, and overall, 27?per cent of girls are missing in one district and 57?per cent in the other. There was little significant variation either in the TFR or the sex ratio by socio-economic status, suggesting that poverty was not a key factor in motivating infanticides. Instead, we argue that at least parts of Ceylon had a forward-looking culture of family planning in the eighteenth century, which was lost in subsequent decades.     

Stress,strain, coping and social support for affected family members attending the National Problem Gambling Clinic,London

Aims were: to compare burden experienced by affected family members (AFMs) attending a problem gambling treatment clinic in London, England with that of AFMs affected by substance problems; to examine socio-demographic correlates of AFM burden; to evaluate change following an intervention designed for AFMs; and to test the assumption of the stress-strain-coping-support (SSCS) model that change in AFM coping is important. AFMs (N = 215) completed a gambling version of the short questionnaire for family members affected by addiction (SQFM-AA) which assesses stressful impact, symptoms of ill health, ways of coping, social support and overall burden. All received a 5-Step Method workbook, based on the SSCS model. The SQFM-AA was repeated three to six months later (n = 96). T-test analyses showed that baseline burden and related variables were comparable to those of family members affected by substance problems, were greater for wives and those living in the same household as the gambling relative, and were significantly reduced at follow-up. Regression modelling indicated the importance, for AFMs’ health, of reduced levels of engaged-emotional coping. Family members affected by gambling, some subgroups especially, experience high levels of burden. They can benefit from a model-based intervention, and coping change may be an important process.     

中国老年人口健康预期寿命延长还是缩短？——基于Sullivan方法的实证研究

随着老年人口数量在总人口中不断增长,中国人口的总体健康水平。特别是老年人的健康预期寿命将会发生新的变化。中国老年人口的健康预期寿命是在增长还是在缩短？老年人口的健康预期寿命在总预期寿命中的比例是在增大还是在缩小？搞清楚这个问题对于我们合理地制定老龄政策至关重要。本文尝试应用国际上最为流行的Sullivan方法回答上述问题。