An Empirical Test of a Neo-Malthusian Theory of Fertility Change

Some neo-Malthusians regard fertility as being kept in check by scarcities and constraints and, conversely, as being raised by economic prosperity. Since out-migration to developed countries and the receipt of food aid from developed countries relax the constraints imposed by a country’s carrying capacity, both will have a positive effect on fertility rates in developing countries. Moreover, better economic prospects will also raise fertility, all other things equal. This article provides an empirical test of these hypotheses derived from a neo-Malthusian theory of fertility change. The results fail to confirm the theory and often contradict it.

中国省际人口流动与 人力资本流动差异性分析

人力资本流动与人口流动相关却不相同,本文采用2010-2016年全国流动人口动态监测数据,从流动方向和流动强度两方面对我国省际人口流动引致的人力资本流动现象加以研究。结果表明从流动方向分析,各省人口净流动方向基本呈现时间一致性并且流入流出区域具有稳定性。在调查期间人口净流出省份为16个,人口净流入省份为15个,没有明显变化。人力资本净流向与人口净流向完全一致,但省际人口净流向与高级人力资本净流向并不完全一致,山西、广西、重庆等省市的高级人力资本净流向始终与总人力资本净流向相反。本文采用流出流入比率和迁移选择中心两种指标测算人力资本流动强度,结果基本一致。人力资本流动中心与人口流动中心分布均较为固定。2010年人力资本流动强度最大的省份在2016年的流动强度也更强,流动强度在省际呈现惯性和马太效应。人力资本流入最强地区包括北京、天津、上海三个直辖市,人力资本流出最强省份始终包括安徽、四川、河南等省份。以人力资本流出弹性衡量人力资本流出强度与人口流出强度的相对强弱,东部地区、东北地区省份人力资本的流出强度始终大于人口流出强度,西部地区省份差异较大。考虑各省近五年经济增长状况,人口流动或者人力资本流动对经济增长的影响是非线性的。     

人口迁移与流动对我国各地区经济影响的实证分析

在对近十年来我国人口迁移和流动的时空演变格局进行初步考察的基础上,文章利用面板数据的变系数模型分别实证考察了人口迁移和流动对我国各地区(省域)经济的影响。结果发现:(1)我国各地区间人口迁移相对平稳,而人口流动在2000年以后呈现出持续快速增长的态势,且空间流向极不均衡;(2)人口的迁移和流动对中国整体经济来说是一个帕累托改进;(3)户籍制度对于发达地区起到了人才沙漏的作用;(4)对于中部的绝大部分地区以及西部的一些人口输出大省,伴随人口迁出而引起的人力资本流失对当地经济的负面影响开始凸显出来,人口流出虽然基本出现一个正面影响,但对本地经济发展的贡献并不如我们预想的那么明显。     

International Organisations and the Politics of Migration

The last two decades have seen major shifts in the way international organisations (IOs) address migration. While state sovereignty remains central in the politics of migration, IOs are increasingly developing their visions regarding how the cross-border movements of people should be governed (or ‘managed’) and, in some cases, they have become important actors in the design and implementation of migration policy. Research on the role and functions of IOs remains scarce, however, and there are major uncertainties, concerning not only their actual influence, but also the political context in which they operate and the outcome of their initiatives. According to their advocates, the involvement of IOs would enable greater international cooperation, which would lead to policies that pay greater attention to human rights and development imperatives. Yet, at times, interventions by IOs seem to reinforce existing imbalances, as these organisations primarily tend to align themselves with the interests and agenda of developed receiving states. In addition, the work of IOs is embedded in a complex institutional setting, characterised by sometimes-problematic institutional relations between them, as well as between IOs and other international cooperation mechanisms.     

The Politics and Discourse of Migrant Return: The Role of UNHCR and IOM in the Governance of Return

This article proposes that there is added value in moving beyond isolated studies of return-related migration policies in order to consider both deportations and so-called assisted voluntary returns under the common heading of ‘state-induced returns’. Based on official documents and interviews with staff members of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees and the International Organisation for Migration, it argues that international actors working in the field of migrant return engage in a type of task-sharing that goes beyond functional complementariness. With regard to the return of rejected asylum seekers, for instance, they legitimise each other's engagement as well as the overarching return objectives of governments, and are, therefore, involved in norm-building regarding the acceptability of state-induced returns. In addition to setting certain minimum standards regarding states' treatment of their immigrant population, international actors assist states in upholding control over them. Rather than merely replacing state-led regulation, international actors thus support domestic governments in reaching their migration control objectives, and thereby contribute to a stabilisation of state sovereignty in the governance of migration.     

Redefining membership: restrictive rights and categorisation in European Union migration policy

This article analyses European Union (EU) policy-making on the rights of third-country nationals (TCN) against the backdrop of theoretical literature on the transformation of citizenship. The aim is to evaluate why and to which extent EU policy expands citizenship rights to TCNs, thus redefining the criteria for membership in the European polity. The research emphasises the role of norms and frames in policy-making and is based on secondary sources, primary documents and semi-structured interviews. The analysis reveals how the combination of a principled conflict over citizenship and a strategic conflict over competence led to a legal framework characterised by ‘restrictive rights’ and ‘politics of categorisation’. ‘Restrictive rights’ means that membership rights are granted to TCN in principle, but subject to very restrictive conditions. ‘The politics of categorisation’ refers to the political construction of migrant categories that are subject to different rights-regimes. Both phenomena have the ambiguous effect of enabling the expansion of rights to non-citizens while at the same time creating new lines of division and mechanisms of exclusion.     

The optimism trap: Migrants’ educational choices in stratified education systems

Immigrant children's ambitious educational choices have often been linked to their families' high level of optimism and motivation for upward mobility. However, previous research has mostly neglected alternative explanations such as information asymmetries or anticipated discrimination. Moreover, immigrant children's higher dropout rates at the higher secondary and university level suggest that low performing migrant students could have benefitted more from pursuing less ambitious tracks, especially in countries that offer viable vocational alternatives. We examine ethnic minority's educational choices using a sample of academically low performing, lower secondary school students in Germany's highly stratified education system. We find that their families' optimism diverts migrant students from viable vocational alternatives. Information asymmetries and anticipated discrimination do not explain their high educational ambitions. While our findings further support the immigrant optimism hypothesis, we discuss how its effect may have different implications depending on the education system.     

Moroccan women in Madrid: between change and continuity

This article focuses on individual migration and acculturation processes experienced by Moroccan women in the area of Madrid, based on qualitative research conducted in the Spanish capital in 2008. The results show that Moroccan women restructure their daily practices through complex acculturation processes, orienting them towards both the society of origin and that of arrival. They experience a constant struggle in getting to know the traditions of Spanish society, reorienting their former traditions and inventing new solutions. Moroccan women develop new ways of adapting themselves to their situation in Madrid. This acculturation process bridges the continuity with their culture of origin and reflects changes related to the new context. The studied women move in a transnational space with rigid borders, which is intersected by several social categories such as their education, ethnicity and gender, influencing their relative position within this space.     

Social vulnerability and migration in the wake of disaster: the case of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita

This study explores the relationship between place-based social vulnerability and post-disaster migration in the U.S. Gulf Coast region following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Using county-level data from the U.S. Census Bureau, we develop a regional index of social vulnerability and examine how its various dimensions are related to migration patterns in the wake of the storms. Our results show that places characterized by greater proportions of disadvantaged populations, housing damage, and, to a lesser degree, more densely built environments were significantly more likely to experience outmigration following the hurricanes. Our results also show that these relationships were not spatially random, but rather exhibited significant geographic clustering. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of these findings for future research and public policy.