Rural-Urban Migration and Reproductive Behavior in Guatemala

Guatemala has the highest fertility of any country in Latin America, and it is also the least urbanized. Projected rural-urban migration will shift more of Guatemala's population from rural areas into towns and cities. This article uses retrospective life-history data collected in migrant origin and destination areas in Guatemala to compare the fertility of rural-urban migrant women to that of rural and urban nonmigrants. Results from discrete-time hazard regression models of union formation, first birth, and third and higher parity births indicate that delayed marriage while still in rural areas, and the rapid adoption of urban fertility practices after migration, result in intermediate migrant fertility that is closer to that of urban natives than rural nonmigrants. If current patterns are any guide to the future, the redistribution of population from high fertility rural areas to towns and cities in Guatemala will accelerate the decline in aggregate fertility beyond what would have resulted from declines in rural and urban fertility alone.     

外国对华投资的地区分布及其对人口迁移和区域发展的影响

80年代以来,中国的外国投资在区域间的分布呈现出了很明显的地域差别。88%以上的外国投资集中在东部沿海地区。区域间包括开放政策、基础设施、交通及通讯条件以及劳动力素质在内的投资环境差异影响着区域间外国投资分布的差异。同时,区域间外国投资的差异也对区域间发展差异以及区域间的人口迁移产生了很大影响。了解影响外国投资的因素以及外国投资对区域发展和人口迁移的影响有助于制定合理的区域政策。     

中国人口迁移流动的人力资本替代效应及影响分析

人口迁移流动是改变人口数量和人力资本空间分布格局的重要因素,人口迁移流动造成的人口数量和人力资本空间分布变化是否一致及其对区域经济社会发展的影响是一个需要更加深入研究的问题。本文针对我国人口流动过程中形成的人口素质结构转变进行理论思考和实证研究,探讨其形成的经济原因和造成的经济影响。相关数据显示我国高等教育群体和中等教育及以下群体长期以来一直处于净流向相同的状态,而2013-2015年以来各省陆续出现净流向相反的现象,形成了人口数量和人口素质的替代效应。高等教育人才的净流入地区是经济发达省份、地理条件优越省份以及少数民族自治区,北京、天津、上海、浙江、江苏以及广东省等三大都市圈内的六个省市的高等教育净流入人才占跨省高等教育净流入总人口的绝大多数。人口替代对当地的经济影响表现为三点:第一,改变当地劳动力资源禀赋结构,使高等教育群体及中等教育群体人数的比较优势发生变化;第二,改变地区平均受教育年限,影响地区科技创新能力;第三,拉大地区劳动力收入差距。据此提出两点政策建议:首先,地方省市可以通过市场化的产业结构调整手段控制相应的流动人口群体规模,而不必依靠限制人口流动的政策以及硬性提出人口调控目标来管理流动人口规模。其次,地方政府要做好地区经济规划以及定位,充分认识现在的人口替代对于未来地区创新能力以及劳动力收入差距的影响。     

京津冀地区人口迁移特征及其影响因素分析

本文描述了1990年以来京津冀地区在人口迁移的活跃程度和空间分布的新特征。通过建立计量模型,对1990年和2000年影响京津冀地区人口迁移的综合因素进行了比较分析。结论显示:人均GDP差距已经成为影响人口迁移的首要因素,市场化水平、产业结构对人口迁移的影响力在逐渐上升。针对京津冀地区人口迁移可能存在的问题和影响,本文对京津冀地区未来的人口发展战略提出了相关政策建议。     

广州市2006—2020年人口预测与分析

户籍人口、迁移人口和常住人口的变动及趋势预测是各级政府进行国民经济和社会发展规划的重要指标。本文通过建立人口预测方程,对广州市户籍人口的总量和结构进行了全面的预测分析,并深入研究了人口迁移对广州市人口增长与人口结构的影响,最后,利用阻滞增长模型对广州市常住总人口进行了预测分析,预测结果供广州市政府制定十一五规划参考。     

从法国穆斯林移民的生存现状透视法国的移民模式

法国季节性人口迁移由来已久,且迁移的地域遍及欧洲。欧洲国家对人口迁徙情况进行清查和评估始于1805年法兰西第一帝国时期,当时实行以“血统主义”为原则的国籍制度,其用意在于保证拿破仑军队充足的兵源,这与后来共和政体实行的“属地主义”原则相对立。21世纪初,移民问题成为法国对内政策面临的一大挑战,它与公共安全、国民身份认同、就业市场、欧盟公共事务政策的制订以及在第二代移民中实现法国模式的“共和”与“非宗教化”的融合等重大问题息息相关。欧洲国家之间与欧洲国家之外的人口迁移5I发以下问题：欧洲居民的原国籍问题、法国国籍问题、法国公民权的行使问题以及在重组后的家庭种族构成愈加复杂的条件下个人身份的构建问题等。     

参与经济发展与农村妇女生活方式的变迁

农村妇女参与经济发展 ,对她们的家庭、婚姻、生育、消费都产生了巨大的影响 ,特别是那些流动的妇女 ,由于环境的改变 ,收入的增加 ,生活方式的变化更为明显     

New Destinations? Assessing the Post‐migration Social Mobility of Minority Ethnic Groups in England and Wales

This paper considers the roles of migration and group‐specific ethnic penalties in minority groups’ life chances. In relation to existing knowledge of extensive diversity between ethnic groups, and outlining a range of frameworks within which to understand that diversity, the paper first explores the relationship of class origins to parental educational and economic assets for three groups of migrant parentage and a comparison white non‐migrant group. Second, the paper investigates for the different ethnic groups how the probability of having a professional or managerial class outcome is influenced by class origins and by the educational achievements of the “second generation”. Analysis is based on the ONS Longitudinal Study, which enables the study members to be tracked from 1971, when they were children living with their parents, to their own social class outcomes in 1991 and 2001. Because processes of occupational achievement may take different lengths of time for different groups, occupational outcomes are modelled in both 1991 and 2001, and also outcomes in 2001 conditional on position in 1991. The paper shows that there is evidence of differential processes operating for different ethnic groups that go beyond their class background, but which cannot be attributed to discrimination operating equally against all minority groups.     

Geographical and geodemographic connections between different types of small area as the origins and destinations of migrants to Mid-Wales

Exchanges of population between supposedly ‘urban’ and ‘rural’ spaces have occurred throughout history as people migrate between areas with relatively, densely and sparsely settled populations. However, comparatively little is known about whether the same small areas persistently contribute to the flow and what types of locality are involved. Recent counterurbanising migration represents both a re-location of the centres of population growth from urban to rural areas in many developed countries, and a refashioning of the characteristics and lifestyles of residents occupying the countryside. Mid-Wales classically exemplifies the changing demographic fortune of many rural areas having experienced a long period of population decline, followed by a general but locally fluctuating upturn since the 1970s. Using empirical information from recent British censuses on numbers of 1-year migrants and from a national geodemographic classification of small areas, this paper explores the geographical and socio-economic connections between the origins and destinations of those people who moved into Mid-Wales during the closing decades of the 20th century. It concludes that certain places and types of locality have stronger migratory links enduring beyond the period covered by a single census enumeration.     

“平等保护条款”与美国公民的“州际迁徙权”

美国人虽然历来重视迁徙自由,但在很长的一段历史时期中,他们所享有的“州际迁徙权”并不完全,因为迁居外州的公民并不能立即享受到与迁入州原居民完全相同的权利。自20世纪60年代起,州际迁徙者开始借助联邦宪法第十四条修正案中的“平等保护”条款争取获得与迁入州原居民同样的特权与豁免权。在联邦最高法院的坚持下,各州歧视新迁入者的许多法律已被取消,但在福利待遇方面,州际迁徙者的权益仍面临着诸多潜在的威胁。