我国人口迁移大势和胡焕庸线思考

本文对2005－2010年间我国东中西部地区的人口净迁移流量作了两种推算：一是根据“六普”资料直接推算,二是按地区人口增量扣除自然增长量的方法间接推算,发现两种推算结果有较大出入。推算结果还显示：5岁以下儿童的净迁移流向正好与“一江春水向东流”的大势相反。笔者认为：胡焕庸线破与不破两难,主要难在人口东迁难以突破性逆转。人口均衡分布之义,在于“均而不衡,衡而不均”,过份追求均匀分布,只会加剧人口与经济社会、资源环境的不平衡。区域人口与经济－资源承载力的相对平衡,应着力寻求区域内平衡和跨区域平衡之间的最佳平衡点。     

中国的返迁人口:基于五普数据的分析

本文利用我国2000年第五次人口普查的数据,估计返迁人口的规模并描述返迁人口的人口社会特征及其与现在的迁移人口与非迁移常住人口的差异,从个人因素、居住地类型以及家庭户特征三个方面分别讨论了返迁的决定因素。并讨论了本文的一些缺陷及今后的研究方向。     

Negotiating race and place in the Garifuna Diaspora: Identity formation and transnational grassroots politics in New York City and Honduras

This paper is an exploration of the relations between the politics of identity and the socio‐economic and political processes of the current era of globalization. Using ethnographic material from the transnational grassroots organizations of the Garinagu—an Afro‐Indigenous population living in transnational communities between Central America and the US—I show the multiple ways that they articulate their identity between and among the tropes of “autocthony,” “blackness,” “Hispanic,” “diaspora,” and “nation.” This construction and negotiation of identity is intimately connected to the negotiation of rights vis‐à‐vis nation‐states and international political bodies, where ideologies of race, ethnicity, nation, and citizenship carry with them different implications for rights and belonging. I argue that the complexities of this case point to the uneven processes of globalization, within which the power to define the ideological terrain of economic and political struggles is still profoundly unequal.     

The struggle over migration policy

We analyze the endogenous determination of migration quota, viewing it as an outcome of a two-stage political struggle between two interest groups: those in favor and those against the proposed migration quota. First, we compare the proposed policies of the two interest groups under random behavior of the government, with and without lobbying. We examine the effect of the status quo and government intervention in the proposal of the quota on its nature, assuming that, with and without government intervention, the uncertain approval of the proposal is the outcome of a lobbying contest between the two interest groups.

Geographical and geodemographic connections between different types of small area as the origins and destinations of migrants to Mid-Wales

Exchanges of population between supposedly ‘urban’ and ‘rural’ spaces have occurred throughout history as people migrate between areas with relatively, densely and sparsely settled populations. However, comparatively little is known about whether the same small areas persistently contribute to the flow and what types of locality are involved. Recent counterurbanising migration represents both a re-location of the centres of population growth from urban to rural areas in many developed countries, and a refashioning of the characteristics and lifestyles of residents occupying the countryside. Mid-Wales classically exemplifies the changing demographic fortune of many rural areas having experienced a long period of population decline, followed by a general but locally fluctuating upturn since the 1970s. Using empirical information from recent British censuses on numbers of 1-year migrants and from a national geodemographic classification of small areas, this paper explores the geographical and socio-economic connections between the origins and destinations of those people who moved into Mid-Wales during the closing decades of the 20th century. It concludes that certain places and types of locality have stronger migratory links enduring beyond the period covered by a single census enumeration.     

Remembrances of things past: test–retest reliability of retrospective migration histories

Summary Matched retrospective life history data collected from the same individuals in two waves of the Malaysian Family Life Survey provide a unique opportunity to evaluate the quality of long-term recall data in a rapidly changing developing country. Recall quality, measured by consistency of incidence and dating of moves reported 12 years apart, is higher among the better educated. Respondents better remember more salient moves, those linked with other important life events such as marriage, childbirth or a job change and moves that lasted a long time. Migrations that dim in memory as time passes are typically shorter duration or local moves, often made while the respondent was young. The dating of moves is also significantly improved when linked with other salient events. Our findings suggest concrete and practical steps that can be followed to improve the quality of retrospective life-histories collected in field surveys.     

The Capital City in the Context of accelerated Individualization. Reflections on the Bulgarian Experience

Privatization and competitive politics brought about accelerated individualization in Bulgarian society. Both the constructive and destructive effects of individualization are particularly concentrated in the country's capital city. It rapidly shifted its economic structure from industry to services and re-oriented its territorial morphology from north-west to south-east. These changes mostly took place in a spontaneous and often anomic way thus provoking the need for a new Master Plan of the capital city. Sociological studies supported its preparation. Below the surface of a relatively stable size of the capital's population they revealed substantial migration to Sofia during the 1990s together with continuing large-scale emigration of the young, best educated and entrepreneurial population cohorts. Recent studies confirm this trend despite of the fact that the capital city is economically in the best position in comparison with all other settlements in the country. The conclusion is that the economic, political and cultural re-integration of Bulgarian society is still incomplete and this may be noticed in all its structural levels, administrative and territorial units, the capital city including. Thus, new institutional strategies are needed for coping with the effects of accelerated individualization. In the capital city, the core of these strategies should be the strengthening of the economic, political and cultural basis of its communal integration.     

家庭随迁流动人口住房选择及其影响因素分析——以上海市为例

本研究在对上海各区县流动人口进行问卷调查的基础上,描述了家庭随迁流动人口的住房性质、居住社区类型和居住区位等多方面的基本特征,综合探讨了个人及家庭因素、社会及制度因素和社会融合因素对流动人口住房选择的影响机制。分析表明：上海流动人口家庭随迁特征明显;流动人口仍以租赁住房为主,主要聚居在远郊、近郊的农村社区和城中村;家庭随迁流动人口在住房拥有率方面凸显优势;由流动人口自身素质所形成的社会分层对住房选择影响显著;制度性因素和社会融合因素对住房选择也具有显著性影响。针对分析结论,本文在政府、社会以及个人等多方面提出解决流动人口住房问题的对策建议。     

云南省经济结构调整与农村劳动力转移

经济结构与就业结构之间存在着一种对称性关系。在经济结构转变过程中,产业结构和体制结构会直接影响到就业结构,影响到劳动力流动的流向、规模和特点。云南省经济结构调整的特征分析,云南省农村劳动力转移的特点,未来云南省农村劳动力转移中存在的困难和压力,促进云南省农村劳动力转移的政策建议。     

The Making of Vulnerabilities: Indigenous Day Laborers in Mexico's Neoliberal Agriculture

This article explores the linkages between representations of race, culture, and social structure in the San Quint’n Valley, Baja California, an area of northwestern Mexico that produces tomatoes for export to the United States using an indigenous migrant labor force. I focus on a day laborers' riot that took place in 1996. The press debate that followed the event exposed the articulation between local cultural images, social relations, and global political-economic processes. I argue that the modern agro-export sector takes advantage of and reshapes colonial and postcolonial caste-based social relations that are most likely associated with "tradition." The use of indigenous day laborers in segmented labor markets typical of "flexible capitalism" is interpreted locally as a return to the past. Contract farming, an arrangement between Mexican entrepreneurs and transnational corporations, creates some confusion. Some blame Mexican caciques (ruthless landowners), whereas others blame transnational firms for the exploitation of indigenous peasants. Those who blame caciques evoke images of backward Latin American regions that need to be modernized by the revolutionary state. Those who hold global corporations responsible interpret neoliberal agriculture as a return to the nineteenth-century Porfiriato, a period of foreign capital penetration in Mexico. Paradoxically, "modernity" is associated with revolutionary social justice as the ideals and values of the Mexican Revolution are being radically reworked by the introduction of neoliberal policies.