Towards a European migration policy

The stagnating West European population combined with the prosperous economic development of the European Community (EC) generate strong economic incentives for immigration. The drastic political changes in Eastern Europe have caused additional migration pressures. There are a variety of problems with the economic and political integration of migrants, however. The paper argues that immigration can compensate for demographic losses due to the decline and ageing of the European labor force. Economic theory further predicts welfare gains from free factor movements, which should be reaped as long as social costs and adjustment costs are not prohibitive. An active European migration policy is recommended to achieve this aim.This article is a completely revised version of CEPR Discussion Paper No. 641, presented by the second author at the CEPR Workshop The economies of migration on 23 November 1991 in London, UK, and at a hearing of the European Parliament on 25 May 1992 in Bruxelles, Belgium.     

基于人力资本投资的劳动力迁移模型

劳动力的迁移行为作为人力资本投资的一种形式 ,同样牵涉到成本和收益问题。文章首先介绍了基于人力资本投资的劳动力迁移模型 ,并针对模型列出了模型中存在的问题。在此基础上 ,作者提出模型中应考虑的个体特征 ,同时还综合了到其他学者的研究观点。文章结论是 ,人力资本投资模型的研究仍旧从劳动供给方出发 ,所以它仍属于供给类劳动力迁移模型 ,最终在研究个体劳动力迁移模型中 ,人力资本投资模型可以构成一个有用的组织分析框架。     

Migration expectancy revisited: Results for the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s

Planners in a variety of situations require an improved understanding of migration trends if services and products that adequately meet constituent needs are to be provided. This note focuses on changes in migration expectancy over three decades in the context of the planning function. Using the CPS one-year migration question for the periods 1975–1976, 1980–1981, and 1987–1991, and the work of Wilber (1963) and Long (1973) as historical benchmarks, migration expectancy is found to have fallen since the earlier studies. Longer-distance migration (between counties and between states) has remained relatively constant over the same period so that these types of moves now account for a larger proportion of total residential mobility. The results are discussed in the context of their value to individuals and organizations who seek a better understanding of demographically-driven demand from services and products.This article is based on a paper presented at the Southern Demographic Association annual meeting, New Orleans, Louisiana, 22 October 1993.     

基于vSEIdRm模型的人口迁移以及离汉交通管控对新冠肺炎疫情发展的影响分析

不同于传统( Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed)SEIR流行病传播动力学模型,本文在近期研究的Varying Coefficient Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Diagnosed-Removed (vSEIdR)模型基础上加上人口迁徙(Migration) 模块,设计开发了vSEIdRm模型,该模型考虑了跨区域人口迁徙对疫情传播的影响,并允许流行病传播参数随时间变化。本文首先对人口迁移数据进行统计分析,建立其与各省新冠肺炎疫情发展的联系。之后,基于vSEIdRm模型估计了疫情初期各省份来自武汉的输入病例数,并定量刻画了离汉交通管控的效果。研究结果显示,离汉交通管控措施有效地减少了各省份的疫情规模。     

Rural restructuring in the American West: land use, family and class discourses

Migration patterns, technological developments, and altered human–land relationships are combining to precipitate tremendous changes in rural communities across the western US. These processes of restructuring, however, have been quite contentious and divisive for many of the region's small towns. While we are beginning to understand the causes of recent growth and development trends, the consequences of contemporary forces of restructuring on communities remain unstudied. This paper explores the reactions of residents to forces of restructuring in Pagosa Springs, Colorado, the Methow Valley, Washington, Kane County, Utah, and Teton Valley, Idaho. In depth interviews and survey responses give voice to community members by allowing them to articulate their perceptions and interpretations of recent events. The analyses demonstrate tremendous diversity in the ways in which individuals interpret the changes taking place around them. These diverse interpretations challenge singular conceptions of community and highlight the ways in which notions of land use, family, and class are negotiated in the context of contemporary rural restructuring. The analysis further demonstrates the need for a more synthesized field of rural studies spanning disciplinary and national divides.     

中国的城市化与人口迁移——2000年以来的实证研究

内容提要：以中国统计年鉴、中国城市统计年鉴和全国经济与社会发展统计公报中的相关数据为依据,分析了中国2000年以来城市化及人口迁移的特征。从全国整体上看：2000年以来,中国的城市化水平增长速度较快,但有减缓的趋势;新增城镇人口和农村-城镇净迁入人口规模仍然较大,但都趋于递减,且净迁入人口对城市人口增长的贡献率也在下降。从城市层面上看：城市规模越大,对迁移人口的吸引力、净迁移人口对城市人口增长的贡献就越大;东、西部城市的净迁入率、净迁入人口对城市人口增长的贡献率都大于中部城市。进一步在分析其成因的基础上提出了相应的政策建议。     

大理傣族追踪

作者以田野调查和新发现的民间族谱并结合史籍的零星记载，首次勾勒了大理地区傣 族的历史全貌和现状。     

户籍迁移人口与区域经济发展的相关性——以福建省为例

依据福建省2007年有关人口数据,选取户籍迁移和区域经济发展等指标,对户籍迁移人口与区域经济发展的相关性进行研究,并分析其中不同类型户籍迁移人口对区域经济发展影响作用的差异。研究发现,户籍迁入对区域经济发展呈正相关,省内迁入作用显著于省外迁入,而省外迁出产生的资金回流对流出地的区域经济发展具有一定的正向作用。     

抗战时期的四川高等院校

通过论述抗战时期四川高等教育因众多高校的内迁而得到飞速发展,扩大了各校办学规模,培养了大批实用人才,繁荣了学术研究,得出了本地高校和迁入高校的共同发展对四川高等教育事业和社会文明进程具有深远影响的结论。     

流动的村庄:乡土社会的双二元格局与不确定性 ———皖东T 村的社会形态

在安徽东部T村，向城市流动的群体范围在不断扩大，村民生活方式越来越趋向二元化，流动导致了乡土社会双重二元化格局的形成。在这一格局中，农民经受着既非市民亦非农民的身份认同困惑，以及对未来预期的高不确定性。对城市和乡村的不确定预期，使得农村居民不得不通过不断的流动来增加保障。不确定性造成农民发展风险和成本的提高，同时也可能引发农民重复投资和资源的浪费。