State transition modeling of complex monitored health data

This article considers the analysis of complex monitored health data, where often one or several signals are reflecting the current health status that can be represented by a finite number of states, in addition to a set of covariates. In particular, we consider a novel application of a non-parametric state intensity regression method in order to study time-dependent effects of covariates on the state transition intensities. The method can handle baseline, time varying as well as dynamic covariates. Because of the non-parametric nature, the method can handle different data types and challenges under minimal assumptions. If the signal that is reflecting the current health status is of continuous nature, we propose the application of a weighted median and a hysteresis filter as data pre-processing steps in order to facilitate robust analysis. In intensity regression, covariates can be aggregated by a suitable functional form over a time history window. We propose to study the estimated cumulative regression parameters for different choices of the time history window in order to investigate short- and long-term effects of the given covariates. The proposed framework is discussed and applied to resuscitation data of newborns collected in Tanzania.     

Disagreement over the immigration of low-income earners in a welfare state

This paper studies natives’ economically motivated preferences over different levels of immigration of low-income earners. Immigration affects natives through both intra- and intergenerational redistribution programmes and in the labour market. Our analysis suggests, in a welfare state that looks after the poor and the aged, economic motivation does not necessarily lead a native to have an extreme opinion on the preferable level of immigration, although it causes disagreement among natives. We find, regardless of parameter values, high-income earners prefer at least as much immigration as low-income earners who, in turn, prefer at least as much immigration as pensioners. The median voter is then likely to be a low-income native.

土地承包责任制现状评析

通过对土地承包责任制产生、发展及现状的考察和分析,论证了土地承包责任制是行之有效的制度形式,反驳了土地国有化和土地私有化的观点,指出正确的方法应是克服土地承包责任制的缺陷和不足,并予以改进和完善,以谋求社会和谐发展。     

论刑法中的国家机关工作人员

为探寻刑法中“国家机关工作人员”正当而科学的判断标准,我们提出了关于“国家机关工作人员”本质的“公职论”,探讨了“公职论”的法理根基与政治学基础,并进行了“国家机关工作人员”的刑法学释义与分类。     

心理表征及其特征

认知科学的心理表征是有机体环境信息的载体,认知系统具有一种承载信息的内部状态,即中介状态.这种中介状态具有五种特征,即持久性、差异性、抽象性、具有成分结构和受规则控制.讨论心理表征的深层次问题对于说明各种认知能力非常重要.     

西方新自由主义福利思想述评

新自由主义继承和延续了古典自由主义的政治和经济思想内核,同时在批判凯恩斯主义的基础上阐述了自己的福利思想。新自由主义者以政治自由和经济自由为基本出发点,对集权主义和国家干预的制度模式进行批判,反对福利国家的福利制度。20世纪80年代后新自由主义的福利思想渐渐在一些西方国家成为主流思想,以新自由主义福利思想为指导的社会福利政策改革开始实施。     

俄国政教关系的历史嬗变

政教关系即指国家政权同教会之间的关系。俄罗斯从拜占庭接受基督教以后,基督教作为一种文化现象一直伴随着整个俄罗斯社会历史发展的进程。教权与皇权之间的关系在不同时期也经历着不同的变化,政教关系的问题一直是国家与教会所关心的问题,但总体上保持着政教合一的局面。由于俄国的地缘政治,必然要求内部思想的高度统一,要求政教合一的一元化政治,但它对东正教自身的发展有着消极的影响。     

Life and labor on the internal colonial edge: Political economy of kolberi in Rojhelat

Through the investigation of kolberi (cross-border labor), this paper sheds light on the state’s policy of de-development (or internal colonialization) of the Kurdish region (known as Rojhelat) in Iran. While the most dangerous form of labor, kolberi has become a dominant employment opportunity for Rojhelat Kurds in the last decade. There are no Iranian state laws criminalizing kolberi, and yet those laborers die on a regular basis—being shot or thrown off mountain cliffs by the state forces, stepping into minefields, and so forth. Nevertheless, there is not a single scholarly paper on this subject. Using the mixed methods research approach, our study analyzes the existing data along with in-depth interviews with 20 people who are currently engaged in kolberi to contextualize this understudied phenomenon. Our finding demonstrates that kolberi is a direct outcome of a uni-ethno-religious policies of development and part and parcel of the state's Perso-Shi‘ification strategy in Kurdistan. Therefore, kolberi is more of a political phenomenon than an economic one.     

A non-parametric statistic for testing conditional heteroscedasticity for unobserved component models

When prediction intervals are constructed using unobserved component models (UCM), problems can arise due to the possible existence of components that may or may not be conditionally heteroscedastic. Accurate coverage depends on correctly identifying the source of the heteroscedasticity. Different proposals for testing heteroscedasticity have been applied to UCM; however, in most cases, these procedures are unable to identify the heteroscedastic component correctly. The main issue is that test statistics are affected by the presence of serial correlation, causing the distribution of the statistic under conditional homoscedasticity to remain unknown. We propose a nonparametric statistic for testing heteroscedasticity based on the well-known Wilcoxon''s rank statistic. We study the asymptotic validation of the statistic and examine bootstrap procedures for approximating its finite sample distribution. Simulation results show an improvement in the size of the homoscedasticity tests and a power that is clearly comparable with the best alternative in the literature. We also apply the test on real inflation data. Looking for the presence of a conditionally heteroscedastic effect on the error terms, we arrive at conclusions that almost all cases are different than those given by the alternative test statistics presented in the literature.     

盘古新议

“盘古”名字反映不同的历史进程和丰富的文化内涵。盘古所处年代是旧石器时代(约170万年前~1万年前)。《三五历纪》所记“阳清为天,阴浊为地”,指人在直立之前所见景物,直立以后,就会产生“天日高一丈,地日厚一丈,盘古日长一丈”的感觉。盘古会“变化”(另类的生育方式),盘古生日农历三月三是“阴”发生的时间,盘古最初当是伟大的女性。到了夫权时代,确立为男性。有了夫妻形式的时代,才有“盘古夫妻”的说法。盘古原本不是道教神,为道教徒拉入道教神的行列。盘古不是盘瓠。盘古神话研究的现代性:一、开创和谐社会,倡导献身精神;二、发展旅游,打造主题品牌;三、发展经济,构建盘古相关的产业链。