Using the Residual White Noise Autoregressive Order Determination Criterion to Identify Unit Roots in Arima Models

We present a simplified form of a univariate identification approach for time series models based on the residual white noise autoregressive order determination criterion and linear estimation methods. We also show how the procedure can be used to identify the degree of differencing necessary to induce stationarity in data. The performance of this approach is also contrasted with Portmanteau tests for detection of white noise residuals and with Dickey-Fuller and Bayesian procedures for detection of unit roots. Simulated and economic data are used to demonstrate the capabilities of the modified approach.     

读《为什么餐厅里的黑人孩子都坐在一起》——兼论该书对构建中国和谐族群关系的启示

本文对塔特姆(Beverly Danjel Tatum)教授<为什么餐厅里的黑人孩子都坐在一起>一书进行了简要介绍.塔特姆指出,种族歧视是一种体系优势.通过对白人背景下黑人、白人以及其他有色人种特质的精辟分析,她深刻地揭示了美国种族关系的实质,并提出了促进跨种族对话来打破沉默的建议.塔特姆的理论观点对于中国的族群关系建设有重要启示.在新的时代背景下,中国不仅要在中华民族背景下了解少数民族,也要在中华民族背景下了解汉族.     

生命起源的追索与文化涅般木的重现——论莫言小说中的“白衣盲女”意象

莫言小说中的“白衣盲女”这一意象有着极其丰富的内涵。由文本呈现的美学元素来看，这一意象是真和美的化身。这一意象同时包容了关于生命、文化起源的追溯与预设，而融会于其中的时间意识尤堪重视。以这一意象为主体的“女神再生”的建构则是解决“种的退化”这一文化命题的必由之路，在这一意象之上，蕴含着生命、文化涅檗等重大主题。     

隋代白瓷研究综述

隋墓葬和古窑址的挖掘,为隋代白瓷研究提供了大量的实物材料。目前关于隋代白瓷的研究,主要集中于隋代白瓷的起源、产地、分期、工艺成就几个方面,虽然研究大多不够深入和系统,但专家和学者都做了积极有益的尝试和探索,这对于研究中国陶白瓷的历史具有重要意义。     

从白蛇形象的演变透视男性的女性想象

《白蛇传》为宋元明清以来流传很广的民间故事,以小说、说唱或戏剧等多种形态出现,备受赞赏喜爱,其中白蛇的形象随着时间的发展也发生明显的变化。这种变化某种程度折射出了男性对于女性的想象以及双重期待心理。     

论"白马湖文学现象"

长期被忽略或遮蔽在文学史视野之外的"白马湖文学现象",是发源于浙江省立第一师范学校的新文化实践,在上虞白马湖畔的春晖中学聚合形成,而后又在上海立达学园和开明书店得以承传和发展,而成为一种独具特色的文化与文学现象.平民启蒙主义构成了他们的文化内核,质朴动人则构成了他们独特的艺术风格.     

从白皮书到入宪: 中国人权事业的展开与抉择

从1989年开创人权理论研究到2004年宪法修正案规定"尊重和保障人权",我国人权事业十五年的发展是一个从根本性变革到制度逐渐成熟的过程.为了进一步推动我国人权事业的发展,应该在人权的权利类别、存在形态、制度保障、组织保障、意识培养、文化建设和理论研究等方面做出相应的抉择.     

白裤瑶砍牛丧葬习俗刻录的上古史

白裤瑶砍牛丧葬习俗保留着上古人类进化历程中逐步改变同类争斗相食陋习凝聚群体合力、发展农耕畜牧的历史信息,吃长席宴场景再现出上古黄帝、尧、舜时期弃人尸改吃牛畜的人数与意识提高改变同类相食陋习人数成正比的早期人类社会现状,砍牛场景保留着远古人类驯伏大型猛兽的技巧智慧,还原出上古黄帝时期人类＂服牛乘马＂的历史场景。     

何谓“更加真实”？——《白鹿原》与当代文学中的宗族叙事

在新文学意识形态的规约之下,乡村现实社会中存在的宗族形态一直在文学世界中隐而不显。而新时期文学中宗族的复现,动摇了此前的主流叙事规范,继而《白鹿原》以乡村宗族为叙事中心,展现出新的历史图景,并引发了对阶级斗争叙事“真实性”的质疑。倘能在现代中国与传统社会关系变迁的历史背景中,系统梳理宗族叙事与阶级叙事相互纠葛缠绕的动态过程,则可能打开一片新的视野,更全面地认识《白鹿原》的文学史意义,从中亦可呈现“真实性”这一当代文学批评话语本身的建构和脉络的变化。     

The social investment approach as a field of job creation. From the ‘recalibration’ to a resurgent trade-off between employment growth and low wage (white) jobs. A comparison between Germany and Italy

The social investment approach emerged as a new welfare paradigm, aimed at reconciling the traditional functions of the welfare supply with a productive social agenda, designed at preparing people to confront the ‘new social risks’, whether they be related to the problem of balancing paid work and family responsibilities, upgrading the skills, preventing inequalities and promoting the availability of in-kind services. In order to achieve these objectives, especially those related to care needs and work-life balance, the adoption of social investment-based strategies necessarily implies an expansion of the jobs related to health and social care services. In more recent years, many studies have analysed the limitations of the social investment policies because of their different redistributive impacts on social groups. Several studies have found a higher use of these policies for high-income families. Another source of criticism on social investment is that spending on these policies would seem to crowd out more traditional passive social expenditures. In this article, we examine another question related to the widespread of this approach: what are the effects of the social investment policies in terms of direct job creation? In fact, one of the more controversial issues, related to social investment policies, is their direct contribution to the labour market in terms of both quantity and quality of work within welfare services. The article analyses these issues focusing on Germany and Italy, two countries that represent not only two different care regimes but also two distinct models regarding job creation strategies in the care sector. In doing so, particular attention will be paid to long-term care policies, as they represent one of the pivotal areas of the social investment approach, both in terms of social services, to address new social risks, and new jobs related to welfare services