发展地球系统科学的背景、问题及对策

本文比较了地球系统科学和传统地球科学在研究方法上的区别 ,认为地球系统科学的产生对地球科学各分支的局限性形成挑战 ,指出 :(1)规模适度的研究团队是从事地球系统科学的基础 ;(2 )基于地球各分支学科的系统整合是地球系统科学演进的基本路径 ;(3)生物系统与非生物系统的交互作用是地球系统科学研究的难点。本文还提出了推动地球系统科学研究的相关措施。     

“9·11”之后的美国族裔群体与外交政策

“9·1 1”恐怖袭击事件之后 ,美国对其国家安全战略进行了重大变化 ,在全球范围内打击恐怖主义成为其外交政策的首要目标 ;同时 ,美国社会族裔关系也因“9·1 1”事件而出现了调整 ,阿拉伯裔与白人主流社会群体之间的关系尤为紧张。所有这些变化使族裔群体在美国外交政策上的表现出现了许多新的特征。与冷战后克林顿执政时期相比 ,族裔群体在外交政策上的影响力受到美国打击恐怖主义这一最高外交政策目标的制约 ,族裔群体的“双重文化”认同在这个特殊的时期受到特别的考验 ,总体上有向冷战时期回归的趋势     

Central bank credibility and monetary policy in Indonesia

This paper examines the role of central bank credibility in achieving an inflation target and proposes monetary policy rules for Indonesia. Towards that end, we construct and estimate a forward-looking small scale macroeconomic model (SSMM) of the Indonesian economy by adapting the theoretical underpinnings of the well-known Batini–Haldane model, along with the Taylor policy rule. Our results indicate that it is crucial for the Indonesian central bank to bolster its credibility in order to achieve a lower inflation rate. The inflation–output volatility trade-off frontier we derived from the SSMM shows that a monetary policy rule that targets both inflation and output gaps will result in less macroeconomic volatility. We also found that the inclusion of the exchange rate into the rule as an additional feedback variable warrants consideration in the future course of monetary policy management.     

The Tension between Mainstream Competence and Specialization in Adult Protection: An Evaluation of the Role of the Adult Protection Co-ordinator

With the implementation of No Secrets (Department of Health, 2000),the question of how far to specialize in adult protection hasbeen raised for social services departments. Related issuesinclude the extent of specialization within the vulnerable adultclient groups as well as between adult protection specialistsand other workers. This paper draws on an evaluation of therole of the adult protection co-ordinator across two local authoritysocial services departments (the case study) who share adultprotection policies, protocols and procedures but where thespecialist role has only partially been implemented and hasevolved in different ways. It identifies a number of criticalconsiderations for the local implementation of national policy,including the particular model for adult protection specialization,working relationships with district management and care management,decision making and accountability, adult protection case managementand the development of mainstream competence in adult protection.     

试论古代史上的民俗研究

我国古民俗研究起源甚早,可追溯到西周初。而古民俗学研究之形成,应以两汉《淮南子.齐俗训》、《风俗道义》的出现为其标志。逮唐宋民俗研究风气大开,统治者视民俗研究为资政佐治之重要资源,更促进了民俗研究的发展。至于西方民俗理论传入而形成近代意义之民俗学,则不在本文讨论范围。     

重商主义与英第一帝国经济政策

重商主义是15～17世纪在欧洲产生的一种经济理论。从17世纪开始,英国确立了对外殖民扩张和建立帝国的基本政策和原则,这一政策和原则的指导思想就是重商主义,先前体现为民间性的殖民拓殖逐渐转化为政府的有意识的政策行为,建立商业帝国成为英国国家追求的主要目标,到17世纪后期英国基本上形成了以重商主义为基本特征的殖民体系和殖民制度,形成了第一帝国。第一帝国形成后,在重商主义理论的指导下,英帝国以追求商业利益为目的,进一步加强了对外贸易和帝国扩张。重商主义是英第一帝国的重要国策,是立国之本。     

李鸿章对朝鲜的国际均衡政策（1879-1882）

1879年日本吞并琉球,进而威胁到朝鲜的安全和清朝与朝鲜的宗藩关系。而此时美国想借助日本打开与朝鲜通商之路,李鸿章为防止日本与美国在对朝鲜政策上勾结,想利用列强间的矛盾,维持中朝之间的宗藩关系,对朝鲜采取了国际均衡新政策。     

福建省县域经济发展不平衡性特征及对策建议

在总结福建省县域经济发展现状的基础上,着重分析了福建省县域经济发展呈现经济强县、中等发达县、经济后发县的地域分布特点和不平衡性特征及其主要原因。根据县域经济发展的实际和特点,坚持分类指导的原则,从改革推动、规划带动、政策促动等方面对县域经济发展提出若干政策建议。     

湖湘文化与近代湖南报业

湖湘文化源远流长,博大精深,其内涵丰富。近代湖南报业,是直接在湖湘文化的孕育下诞生的,并在历史的长河中逐步成长起来。     

Choice of reinforcement rates and work rates with concurrent schedules

A constrained optimisation theory or choice in concurrent schedules of reinforcement is presented. The theory posits that subjects evaluate both reinforcement rates and the work rates required to produce them and select the most highly valued combination. The chosen reinforcement rate is obtained by efficiently allocating work rate across schedules. The theory provides a unified explanation for maximisation of the overall reinforcement rate, the law of least effort, choice under Conc FR FR, Conc VR VR. Conc VI VI and Conc VI VR schedules, and choice of work rate.