中国产业结构变动与就业水平的实证研究

文章运用时间序列和计量模型研究了中国产业结构与就业水平之间的发展关系.首先运用格兰杰因果检验分析了第一、二、三次产业的产值与其就业之间的因果影响关系,继而从产值与就业两个角度定量分析了第一、二、三次产业各自对总就业水平的贡献,得出结论:第一产业和第三产业是劳动力就业的决定因素,而第二产业不是就业的决定因素;从产值角度来看,第三产业对劳动力就业的贡献最大,从就业角度来看,第一产业的就业对总体就业水平的贡献最高,其次是第三产业,而第二产业的就业对总体就业水平的贡献最小.最后根据研究结论提出相应的建议措施.     

工业经济增长集聚弹性研究——对中国三大经济圈的实证分析

产业集群理论正在继梯度转移理论、增长极发展理论后成为主导区域经济发展新型区域发展理论。在中国的工业化过程中，珠三角、长三角和环渤海地区随着其地区一体化水平的不断提高制造业都表现为不同程度的产业集聚，其制造业集聚程度与地域经济发展特别是工业经济增长都具有较强的相关性。因此，结合面板数据（panel data）模型的计量方法对中国三大经济圈的工业增长集聚弹性进行估计并就三大经济圈的增长集聚弹性差异的成因进行了分析是十分必要的。     

失业与就业:一个世界性的难题

在世界经济日益一体化的今天,综观全球,人们会惊奇地发现,失业———这一伴随资本主义生产方式和市场经济的产生而出现的社会现象,已经成为一个困扰许多国家经济和社会发展的严重问题。从西欧到东欧,从北美到南美,从发达国家到发展中国家,失业与就业成为人们关注的焦点,“创造就业机会”、“制定反失业对策”成为各国经济政策的首要目标。可以毫不夸张地说,当今世界几乎所有的国家,都不得不面对失业与就业这一世界性的难题。本文试图从宏观的角度,对世界各国不同类型的失业,以及主要资本主义国家治理失业与贫困问题的社会政策,进行分析与考察,从中总结出一些带有普遍性规律性的问题,为我国实施再就业工程提供决策思路和有益借鉴     

Systematic Effects of Capital Service Price Definition on Perceptions of Input Substitution

Earlier attempts at reconciling disparate substitution elasticity estimates examined differences in separability hypotheses, data bases, and estimation techniques, as well as methods employed to construct capital service prices. Although these studies showed that differences in elasticity estimates between two or three studies may be attributable to the aforementioned features of the econometric models, they have been unable to demonstrate this link statistically and establish the existence of systematic relationships between features of the econometric models and the perception of production technologies generated by those models. Using sectoral data covering the entire production side of the U.S. economy, we estimate 34 production models for alternative definitions of the capital service price. We employ substitution elasticities calculated from these models as dependent variables in the statistical search for systematic relationships between features of the econometric models and perceptions of the sectoral technology as characterized by the elasticities. Statistically significant systematic effects are found between the monotonicity and concavity properties of the cost functions and service price–technical change specifications as well as between substitution elasticities.     

Bayesian,MLE, and GMM Estimation of a Spot Rate Model

ABSTRACT

We develop Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms for estimating the parameters of the short-term interest rate model. Using Monte Carlo experiments we compare the Bayes estimators with the maximum likelihood and generalized method of moments estimators. We estimate the model using the Japanese overnight call rate data.     

How Do Behavioral Assumptions Affect Structural Inference? Evidence From a Laboratory Experiment

We develop a model of labor force status (federal employment, nonfederal employment, unemployment, and out of the labor force) that depends on human capital variables, local labor market conditions, and personal characteristics. According to the estimated model for white non-Hispanic males and females a substantial difference exists between blacks and white non-Hispanics even after correction for the control variables. However, the control variables explain almost all of the difference between Hispanics and white non-Hispanics.     

城市人口密度、国内市场规模与就业增长

我国经济“高增长、低就业”现象的原因在于我国贸易成本过高，国内市场规模较少。解决我国就业问题的关键在于减少行政干预，顺应市场要求，促进人口在空间上的适度集中，提高人口密度，提高消费效率，扩大市场规模。应进一步完善城乡一体的户籍制度，完善整合城乡劳动力市场，提高要素流动能力等。     

Change in the Chilean social model

Chile modernized its social model in two stages characterized by different strategies: developmentalism (1924–73) and the Washington Consensus (1973–2008). In the first stage, the State pursued both social policies of universal coverage and land reform, while also building up the country's economic and institutional infrastructure. After the 1973 military coup, some public services were dismantled and privatized, and the labour movement was suppressed. Since the end of the dictatorship in 1990, resistance to state regulation and an anti‐labour bias have persisted, albeit to a diminishing degree due to advances in democratization and, latterly, the current world economic crisis.     

Vocational education,self‐employment and burnout among Australian workers

We examine the relationship between vocational education and occupational burnout among workers in different forms of employment. Although the self‐employed enjoy higher levels of job autonomy and work‐related satisfaction, we do not know whether they experience lower rates of occupational burnout, and whether vocational education plays a role in this relationship. This latter consideration is important, given that vocational qualifications often lead to self‐employment and prior research demonstrated that formal training may reduce burnout. However, formal education was previously measured in years of schooling, without considering the distinction between academically‐oriented and vocational courses. Therefore, using data from a 2001 national survey of working Australians, we first establish that the self‐employed are significantly less likely to experience burnout. We then demonstrate that some resilience to burnout can be attributed to the attainment of skilled vocational training, net of employment characteristics which are also very important.     

中国工业要素替代弹性的分解——基于直接替代效应和诱致性技术创新效应的研究

基于固定替代弹性(CES)生产函数构建了要素替代弹性分解的理论框架模型,根据技术进步是否发生改变,将要素替代弹性分解为直接替代效应和诱致性技术创新效应,并利用1978—2013年中国工业数据对其进行了实证检验分析。实证结果表明:在中国工业化进程中,中国工业资本与劳动之间是呈互补关系;同时,在要素替代过程中,诱致性技术创新效应起到了主要作用。因此,在中国经济转型的新常态下,应该继续加大技术创新的投入力度,加速推进工业产业技术升级,优化产业结构。