Unobserved-Components Models for Seasonal Adjustment Filters

Time series models are presented, for which the seasonal-component estimates delivered by linear least squares signal extraction closely approximate those of the standard option of the widely-used Census X-11 program. Earlier work is extended by consideration of a broader class of models and by examination of asymmetric filters, in addition to the symmetric filter implicit in the adjustment of historical data. Various criteria that guide the specification of unobserved- components models are discussed, and a new preferred model is presented. Some nonstandard options in X-11 are considered in the Appendix.     

Tests for Cointegration Breakdown Over a Short Time Period

We derive a speculative trading model with endogenous informed trading that yields a conditionally heteroscedastic time series for trading volume and the squared price changes. We use half-hourly price-change and volume data for IBM during 1988 to test the model and estimate the structural parameters using the simulated method-of-moments estimation procedure. Although the model seems to do a reasonable job fitting the unconditional moments of the volume and the squared price change processes, it fares less well in fitting the relation between current trading volume and lags of trading volume and squared volume's (and its lag's) relation to squared price changes.     

Time series count data regression

The count data model studied in the paper extends the Poisson model by al-lowing for overdispersion and serial correlation. Alternative approaches to esti-mate nuisance parameters, required for the correction of the Poisson maximum likelihood covariance matrix estimator and for a quasi-likelihood estimator, are studied. The estimators are evaluated by finite sample Monte Carlo experi-mentation. It is found that the Poisson maximum likelihood estimator with corrected covariance matrix estimators provide reliable inferences for longer time series. Overdispersion test statistics are wellbehaved, while conventional portmanteau statistics for white noise have too large sizes. Two empirical illustrations are included.     

全球网络银行的发展与中国网络银行发展战略

作为一种全新的银行革命产物,网络银行发展目前尚存在许多争议,但发展态势锋头甚利,且对传统银行业形成冲击和挑战.我国银行如何利用这场革命的优势,以便在未来发展中获取更大的成功,应该引起人们广泛的关注.     

A Nonparametric Test for the Parallelism of Two First-Order Autoregressive Processes

A nonparametric testing procedure for the parallelism of two first-order autoregressive processes is presented. This paper discuss the Mann–Whitney statistic, its natural competitor two-sample t -test, and the bootstrap method. It studies the asymptotic efficacies of the studentized Mann–Whitney statistic and the t -test statistic with their relative efficiency. Simulation results for comparing the powers of these test statistics are also presented.     

高校投资绩效评价指标体系与方法研究

文章设计了高校投资绩效评价指标体系、评价方法以及对评价结果的利用，为国家审计机关和教育系统内部开展高校绩效审计提供了可行方案和理论探索。     

FPK法在集总参数系统随机温度研究中的应用

应用FPK法研究了集总参数系统在对流和辐射环境下温度随机变化的规律。设激励是均值为0的白噪声且系统参数为常量，在与环境对流换热时，系统随机温度的均值不变，方差与系统时间常数的平方根成反比；在与环境辐射换热时，系统随机温度一般不呈正态分布，其中均值，均方值还与系统确定性温度有关，由此可知，当存在随机激励时，用有热惯性的测温系统精确测定动态温度是不可能的。     

编辑工作中的艺术因素

编辑工作的艺术性因素贯穿于编辑活动的全过程，编辑艺术是编辑方法的升华。     

基于变量轮换法的支持向量机在隧道围岩变形预测中的应用

采用变量轮换法对支持向量机(SVM)参数进行优化处理，结合时间序列分析理论，建立起隧道围岩变形时间序列非线性模型，并以此对隧道围岩变形进行预测。结果表明：改进的支持向量机具有简单、方便、实时等特点，对围岩后续变形预报准确，可科学地指导现场监测和施工建设。     

解放思想更新观念--结合北邮探讨素质教育问题

目前在高校教育改革中,素质教育是一个热点,教育改革关系到全中华民族兴衰荣辱、千秋万代,如何加快并切实有效地把素质教育贯彻落实到实处,我们都在为此努力探讨.