祖先崇拜与人类主体地位的觉醒——以《诗经》为中心的考察

《诗经·商颂》与《诗经·大雅》中带有史诗因素的祭祀祖先的诗歌,集中体现了商、周部族对自己始祖的歌颂,以及对人类自身价值的发现和尊重,反映了这一时期人们主体意识的进一步提高——由自然主体转变为社会主体,有了明确的"类"意识。但这种意识是是群体的,因为,这时的个人还没有能力离开集体独立生存,也就不可能产生个体意识。     

灾疫伦理学：一种生态文明的话语方法

灾疫伦理学作为一门新型的综合性应用型人文科学,以生态理性哲学为指导,拷问频频爆发的当代灾疫之难的历史性生存之因,引导当代人类从伦理学角度入手检讨自我,重建生境,重续人与自然宇宙、生命世界的亲缘性存在关系,恢复日常生活的安全感、稳定性和生存的家园归宿感。灾疫伦理学的最高使命,就是为当代人类开创生态文明构架起一座全新的实践理性桥梁。这座桥梁即是负载灾疫伦理认知体系、观念体系、价值体系和方法体系的生态理性实践话语体系,它以＂灾疫伦理＂为基本范畴,以＂生境重建＂、＂生态利益＂、＂生态安全＂为核心概念,以灾疫防治宏观伦理方案设计和微观伦理方案实施为两维指向。     

构建以照护为重心的基本养老体系 努力实现老有所养

为应对我国老龄化社会。党的十七大提出要把基本养老作为完善社会保障体系的一个重点来抓。照护具有综合性特点。在基本养老中处于重心地位,是健全完善基本养老体系的重要组成部分。加强照护工作,发展照护事业具有现实性、紧迫性,符合社会发展趋势。可从确立政府主体责任、大力发展照护机构,切实加强社区照护,努力培植照护文化等角度全方位确立起照护支持系统,切实提高基本养老质量,从而实现老有所养。同时,构建以照护为重心的基本养老体系．浙江有条件走在前列。     

Adjustment for nonresponse with variables from different sources: Bias correction and precision loss,with application to the Swiss European Social Survey 2012

ABSTRACT

Adjustment for nonresponse should reduce the nonresponse bias without decreasing the precision of the estimates. Adjustment for nonresponses are commonly based on socio-demographic variables, although these variables may be poorly correlated with response propensities and with variables of interest. Such variables nevertheless have the advantage of being available for all sample units, whether or not they are participating in the survey. Alternatively, adjustment for nonresponse can be obtained from a follow-up survey aimed at sample units which did not participate in the survey and from which the variables are designed to be correlated with response propensities. However, information collected through these follow-up surveys is not available for people in the sample who participated neither in the survey nor in its nonresponse follow-up. These two sets of variables when used in a nonresponse model for the Swiss European Social Survey 2012 differ only slightly with regard to their effect on bias correction and on the precision of estimates. The variables from the follow-up are performing slightly better. In both cases, the adjustment for nonresponse performs poorly.     

Effects of some design factors on the distribution of similarity indices in cluster analysis

This article investigates the effects of number of clusters, cluster size, and correction for chance agreement on the distribution of two similarity indices, namely, Jaccard and Rand indices. Skewness and kurtosis are calculated for the two indices and their corrected forms then compared with those of the normal distribution. Three clustering algorithms are implemented: complete linkage, Ward, and K-means. Data were randomly generated from bivariate normal distributions with specified means and variance covariance matrices. Three-way ANOVA is performed to assess the significance of the design factors using skewness and kurtosis of the indices as responses. Test statistics for testing skewness and kurtosis and observed power are calculated. Simulation results showed that independent of the clustering algorithms or the similarity indices used, the interaction effect cluster size x number of clusters and the main effects of cluster size and number of clusters were found always significant for skewness and kurtosis. The three way interaction of cluster size x correction x number of clusters was significant for skewness of Rand and Jaccard indices using all clustering algorithms, but was not significant using Ward's method for both Rand and Jaccard indices, while significant for Jaccard only using complete linkage and K-means algorithms. The correction for chance agreement was significant for skewness and kurtosis using Rand and Jaccard indices when complete linkage method is used. Hence, such design factors must be taken into consideration when studying distribution of such indices.     

Tests for compound periodicities and estimating a non linear function

We propose two tests for testing compound periodicities which are the uniformly most powerful invariant decision procedures against simple periodicities. The second test can provide an excellent estimation of a compound periodic non linear function from observed data. These tests were compared with the tests proposed by Fisher and Siegel by Monte Carlo studies and we found that all the tests showed high power and high probability of a correct decision when all the amplitudes of underlying periods were the same. However, if there are at least several different periods with unequal amplitudes, then the second test proposed always showed high power and high probability of a correct decision, whereas the tests proposed by Fisher and Siegel gave 0 for the power and 0 for the probability of a correct decision, whatever the standard deviation of pseudo normal random numbers. Overall, the second test proposed is the best of all in view of the probability of a correct decision and power.     

人口受教育程度对居民消费的影响研究--基于动态面板分位数回归法

本文采用1996～2015年的31个省市自治区宏观数据,使用动态面板分位数回归方法研究人口受教育程度和居民消费的数量关系。研究结果表明,人口受教育程度对消费有着较为显著的影响,且人口受教育程度对中等消费支出水平的影响略大于高、低消费支出水平的影响,这说明中等消费水平的居民消费受到人口受教育程度的影响更加敏感和有弹性。另外,模型中其他各解释变量系数在各分位数上的差异不大,说明这些影响因素对于不同消费支出水平的消费影响没有太明显差异。     

SROI in the pay for success context: Are they at odds?

The Pay For Success (PFS) and Social Impact Bond (SIB) movements to date have focused heavily on shorter-term outcomes that can be monetized and show clear savings to government entities. In part, this focus derives from the need to specify contract payments based on a narrow set of well measured outcomes (e.g., avoided days in jail and foster care, decreased use of behavioral health services). Meanwhile efforts to measure the social return on investment (SROI) of interventions have sought to expand the view of relevant outcomes to include domains that lend themselves less clearly to monetization. This paper explores the intersection between these two movements with illustrations from a SIB initiative underway focused on homeless families with children in foster care. Challenges and potential for SROI in a third-party payor environment will be discussed as well as opportunities to better leverage the strengths of both types of initiative.     

Are Hearing Voices Networks Compatible with Cognitive Behavioural Therapy for Psychosis?

The most extensively evaluated intervention for auditory hallucinations is Cognitive Behavioural Therapy for Psychosis (CBTp), which is usually delivered in statutory settings by experienced clinicians. In contrast, peer support networks, such as the Hearing Voices Network (HVN), operate informally using peers to normalise and manage voices. This article compares these two approaches to identify points of synergy and difference. Its analysis suggests the two approaches share many features, but also deviate in important ways that could compensate for each other. Instead of competing with each other as might first be thought, they may actually be complementary. Further, HVN may align comfortably with the values and principles of social work. Social workers seeking to engage with voice hearers may be advised to study the underlying principles of each approach to guide the way in which they can capitalise on intervention opportunities to better assist voice hearers.