经济预测中的Monte Carlo模拟及方差控制——以国际石油价格预测为例

从MDnte Carlo模拟的实现过程入手，首先通过对Monte Carlo方法原理的阐述来介绍该种方法。进一步结合具体的实例通过计算机进行模拟来解释Monte Carlo方法的具体实现过程。重点讨论在选择合理的数据生成过程的前提下，如何在Monte Carlo方法中减少模拟方差，从而提高估计精度，更好地应用这种方法来进行经济预测。     

Communication of risk: health hazards from mobile phones

Summary. Possible health hazards from mobile phones arise from the use of the phones themselves and via the base stations that relay signals. Except for an increase in traffic accidents induced by the use of mobile phones in cars the evidence for a health hazard is at most indirect, but it cannot be entirely dismissed; the phones have not been widely used for sufficiently long for direct epidemiological studies to have high sensitivity for detecting any induced incidence of cancer, for example. The background and evidence are briefly reviewed and the steps taken in the UK to make information widely available described.     

合作学习在大学英语教学中的应用

由美国一些教育家倡导的合作学习是以学生为中心的教学方法,适合外语学习的特点,在世界上许多国家推广.将合作学习的方法灵活地应用于大学英语教学,不仅能够提高非英语专业学生的英语听说能力,营造良好的课堂气氛,还能够培养学生的学习自主性和人际交往能力.     

钢管相邻缺陷漏磁场相互影响的分析

实际工况中的管道缺陷是非常复杂的,用物理试验的方法研究各种缺陷漏磁场的变化规律有一定的难度。该文针对油气管道常用的钢管缺陷产生的漏磁场建立了三维有限元模型,采用有限元方法计算了几种相邻缺陷的漏磁场模型,给出了计算结果,并分析了各种相邻缺陷对漏磁场信号的影响。结果表明当相邻缺陷的中心线与磁场方向平行时,对缺陷漏磁信号的影响最小;组合型的缺陷对漏磁信号的影响最大。     

论张岱小品文的世俗性

从审美的角度看，张岱的小品文卸去了“文以载道”的传统，以普通人的视角再现明亡之前其亲历的生活，多方面表现了大众风情，具有鲜明的世俗性：把在传统文人看来俗之又俗的生活素材诉诸笔端；牵引市民化的人物走进小品文；尤其小说化语言的运用，使得作品富于生活气息。究其成因，首先是文艺思潮世俗化的时代洪流。涌溢各处、不断浸淫；其次是当时市民阶层爱好并喜做小品文的风气甚炽，使得张岱需要考虑读者的趣味；再次是张岱家世生平的坎坷，使他处于文化边缘的写作境地，用饱含深情的笔墨展现市民形貌、礼赞世俗人生。     

矩阵方程XA＝B的亚（半）正定自共轭四元数矩阵解

给出了四元数体Ｑ上ｎ×ｎ分块矩阵为亚（半）正定自共轭矩阵的一个充要条件，进而给出了Ｑ上矩阵方程ＸＡｎｍ＝Ｂｎｍ有亚（半）正定自共轭四元数矩阵解的充要条件及解集合的显式表示，从而推广改进了数城上线性方程组的反问题及矩阵反问题的相应结果．     

Forced to work and liberated from work

The work-welfare nexus is essential in all social policy regimes. The question is in what situations individuals should be entitled to social welfare benefits and in which situations they should be obliged to work. Social welfare law and administrative practices define mechanisms that separate the deserving poor from people able to work. This article analyses the functions and character of these "separation mechanisms" in Sweden during three periods in history: a) in rural society in the late 19th century; b) in industrial society during the successful years of the Swedish model from World War II until the late 1970s; and c) the present, including the period of welfare retrenchment and reconsideration since the early 1980s. The conclusion is that Swedish social policy has always been strongly work-oriented, but the specific form and content of the work ethic has varied under the influence of different ideologies and handled in different social policy institutions. Under specific conditions the work line has been either generous or restrictive and it has been based on structural attempts to improve the opportunities to work as well as on attempts to strongly pressure the individual to work. The work line of today is seen as an interesting attempt to combine an effort to create good work through improved work conditions and an effort to reinforce elements of work enforcement in the social insurance system.     

铁磁性金属簿膜磁特性的研究

讨论了铁磁性金属薄膜中的各向弄性磁阻效应。通过对晶体结构分析和实验验证,提出了一种假设:在外磁场作用下,产生了原子对的方向有序化,导致感生磁各向异性,并使晶体织构消失。根据对5种样品的实测数据,讨论了薄膜的动态磁化过程。     

Employment and filial relations: Is there a conflict?

Since children, particularly daughters, are among the most important sources of help and support for older Americans, it has been suggested that women's increasing employment will affect filial relations. Empirical evidence on this issue is inconsistent, in part due to the use of nonprobability samples. Few studies have measured effects for men. We attempt to broaden the scope of this question beyond help to the frail elderly by asking whether employment affects filial relations in general. We examine effects of hours employed on telephone contact, visiting, feelings of closeness, filial attitudes, and assistance to biological parents, for an area probability sample of men and women over 40. There are no effects of employment for men or women on contact, closeness, or assistance. For the vast majority of this population sample, contact and assistance involve few hours per week, and thus do not seem to conflict with employment.     

论学生社团建设与高校思想政治工作的融合

近年来,学生社团的不断壮大,为高校思想政治工作开辟了新的领域和提供了新的载体;同时,思想政治工作进学生社团,为学生社团可持续发展提供了强大的动力,二者的融合有效地推进了大学生的素质教育。