Conditional Akaike information under covariate shift with application to small area estimation

In this study, we consider the problem of selecting explanatory variables of fixed effects in linear mixed models under covariate shift, which is when the values of covariates in the model for prediction differ from those in the model for observed data. We construct a variable selection criterion based on the conditional Akaike information introduced by Vaida & Blanchard (2005). We focus especially on covariate shift in small area estimation and demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed criterion. In addition, numerical performance is investigated through simulations, one of which is a design‐based simulation using a real dataset of land prices. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 46: 316–335; 2018 © 2018 Statistical Society of Canada     

A lower bound to the measure of optimality for main effect plans in the general asymmetric factorial experiments

A design d is called D-optimal if it maximizes det(M _d ) and is called MS-optimal if it maximizes tr(M _d ) and minimizes tr[(M _d )²] among those which maximize tr(M _d ), where M _d stands for the information matrix produced from d under a given model. In this paper, we establish a lower bound for tr[(M _d )²] with respect to a main effects model, where d is an s ₁×s ₂×···×s _m levels asymmetric orthogonal array of strength at least 1. Nonisomorphic asymmetrical MS-optimal orthogonal arrays of strength 1 with N=6, 8 and 12 runs are also presented.     

General ridge predictors in a mixed linear model

This paper mainly aims to put forward two estimators for the linear combination of fixed effects and random effects, and to investigate their properties in a general mixed linear model. First, we define the notion of a Type-I general ridge predictor (GRP) and obtain two sufficient conditions for a Type-I GRP to be superior over the best linear unbiased predictor (BLUP). Second, we establish the relationship between a Type-I GRP and linear admissibility, which results in the notion of Type-II GRP. We show that a linear predictor is linearly admissible if and only if it is a Type-II GRP. The superiority of a Type-II GRP over the BLUP is also obtained. Third, the problem of confidence ellipsoids based on the BLUP and Type-II GRP is investigated.     

A Numerical Study of PQL Estimation Biases in Generalized Linear Mixed Models Under Heterogeneity of Random Effects

The penalized quasi-likelihood (PQL) approach is the most common estimation procedure for the generalized linear mixed model (GLMM). However, it has been noticed that the PQL tends to underestimate variance components as well as regression coefficients in the previous literature. In this article, we numerically show that the biases of variance component estimates by PQL are systematically related to the biases of regression coefficient estimates by PQL, and also show that the biases of variance component estimates by PQL increase as random effects become more heterogeneous.     

Simultaneous inferences for variance ratios of some mixed linear models

Earlier investigations used a one-sided inequality to consltuct confidence regions for the variance ratios or balanced randoiu models. In this study, confidence regions are based on a two-sided generalisation of this inequality and the results are illustrated by estimating the parameters of some elementary random models.     

国企高管团队职能背景对双重任务的偏好分析——股权混合度的调节作用

以2010—2014年沪深两市中央企业控股的上市公司为研究样本,实证揭示不同职能背景主导下的高管团队对于企业双重任务的选择偏好,并进一步考察企业股权混合程度对于高管团队与企业任务的调节效应。研究发现:生产技术型职能背景为主的高管团队与经济绩效正相关、与社会责任负相关;管理服务型职能背景为主的高管团队与经济绩效和社会责任均正相关;股权混合度会显著加强生产技术型职能背景为主的高管团队对企业任务的作用,而削弱管理服务型职能背景为主的高管团队对企业社会责任的作用,且此调节效应在商业竞争类国企中存在、在特殊功能类国企中不存在。该结论揭示了异质股东委托下的股权混合度、高管团队及企业双重任务三方综合影响机理。     

地方大部门体制改革模式研究：以广东省交通体制改革为例

根据中共中央国务院的部署,新一轮地方政府机构改革应以大部门体制为基本方向。广东省交通管理体制改革必须遵循这一方向,这既是贯彻中央关于行政管理体制改革的精神,又是广东经济社会发展的必然要求。依据协同政府理论,广东省大交通管理体制改革有三种基本模式可供决策参考。     

区域分工的效率与成本--浙江省区域性特色经济优劣分析

本文通过温州打火机遭遇欧盟CR法规的事例,建立了区域分工模型,并分析了浙江省区域性特色经济的优势和劣势,机会和风险,以及区域分工的效率与成本问题.     

妈祖信仰与儒、释、道三教的交融

妈祖信仰是在宋元以降儒、释、道三教的交融及儒、释、道三教与民间信仰充分揉合的背景下形成和发展起来的。在妈祖信仰的发展、演变过程中，儒、释、道三教都竞相对妈祖信仰渗透和施加影响。三教与妈祖信仰这种互相影响、互相渗透的复杂关系，体现了宋代以降三教与民间信仰的互相融合趋势；而妈祖信仰对于儒、释、道三教思想和宗教因素的兼收并蓄，又是三教合一潮流在民间信仰方面的具体反映。