我国人口预期寿命的结构及影响因素研究—基于省级面板数据的分析

基于省级面板数据,本文对预期寿命结构及其影响因素问题进行研究。首先,文章分析了我国整体预期寿命及两性预期寿命的地理分布特性,随时间的变化特点,以及与经济发展水平的关系。然后,建立预期寿命的固定效应模型,分析不同影响因素与预期寿命的关系。研究发现经济发展水平、教育和卫生资源对男性和女性预期寿命会产生不同的影响,其中经济发展水平会显著影响女性预期寿命,而教育对男性预期寿命的影响更显著。由此,经济发展水平的提高会导致两性预期寿命差距的增加,而教育水平的提高和卫生资源投入的增加则可能会降低两性预期寿命的差距。     

“五十年时期”雅典对外政策的变化

从希波战争到伯罗奔尼撒战争的"五十年时期"在希腊史上占有非常重要的地位.而雅典作为希腊世界的主角之一,其力量在这一阶段得到了急剧的发展,但却在伯罗奔尼撒战争中一败涂地.从"五十年时期"雅典对波斯和希腊大陆的外交政策的变化,从"五十年时期"雅典对外政策的角度出发,可以探求出雅典力量的兴衰.     

Estimation and goodness-of-fit procedures for Farlie–Gumbel–Morgenstern bivariate copula of order statistics

In this study, we provide the Farlie–Gumbel–Morgenstern bivariate copula of rth and sth order statistics. The main emphasis in this study is on the inference procedure which is based on the maximum pseudo-likelihood estimate for the copula parameter. As for the methodology, goodness-of-fit test statistic for copulas which is based on a Cramér–von Mises functional of the empirical copula process is applied for selecting an appropriate model by bootstrapping. An application of the methodology to simulated data set is also presented.     

Producing and Using Video Data in the Early Years: Ethical Questions and Practical Consequences in Research with Young Children

This article considers ethical questions and practical challenges arising from the production of video data with young children, and suggests that such considerations are reciprocal and that video data should be seen as constructed collaboratively by all participants. Video data can be a valuable means of eliciting children’s perspectives, but it raises particular issues of consent and confidentiality. Opportunities for young children to use video cameras are helpful in supporting informed consent and active participation, whilst the visual nature of video renders anonymity and confidentiality more difficult, and anonymisation of images may impact upon data quality. Video, like all research data, is influenced by the actions and biases of participants, and young children’s experiences as consumers of television will influence their reading of, and responses to, video data. An advantage of video is that it can provide participants with feedback about their participation. Challenges remain with regard to ownership.     

近20年《楚辞补注》研究综述

洪兴祖<楚辞补注>是一部里程碑式的<楚辞>阐释文献.近20年来,这一历史上的楚辞研究专书逐渐成为学术界关注的焦点.许多研究洪兴祖与<楚辞补注>的论文从不同侧面、不同角度、不同立场提出了许多新见解、新观点,为<楚辞补注>的研究拓宽了道路.从文献学研究、文艺学研究及专书研究三个方面略作总结,有助于我们对此课题的整体性了解,使我们对<楚辞补注>研究的发展现状能有总体性的把握.鉴于当前的研究现状,对<楚辞补注>的研究应纳入文献学与文艺学相结合的研究视角,并应该对此书在楚辞文化阐释方面的作用予以重视.     

创伤与治疗——对读苏联作品看中国十七年战争文学

中国十七年时期,刘真、路翎、王愿坚、赵寻等人独辟蹊径,勇敢地创作了一批反思战争创伤的作品。他们惋惜战争中逝去的生命,揭示战争对美好人生的戕害,并提出修复、治疗战争创伤的良好愿望。但是借助于苏联同时期相关作品的对读,尚可发现这些作品仍有其未能或不敢触及的“伤疤”。     

文学经典的批评与文学批评的经典化——以建国后十七年文学经典的批评为中心

建国后十七年,文学批评的主流意识形态话语通过掌握文学经典的解释权而取得主导地位,其具体方式是颠覆原有经典、重新确认经典、文学经典重释、原有经典强化以及确立新时代经典,筒言之,通过共时态的文学经典建构与历时性的经典评价从而实现文学批评的经典化。由于文学经典的形成受他律性因素的支配,文学批评的经典化与非经典化范围总是处于流变之中,其流变的复杂过程呈现了建国前后文学批评观念的转型态势,也预示着建国后主流批评话语的建构方向。     

Valuing equity-indexed annuities with icicled barrier options

Inspired by the recent popularity of autocallable structured products, this paper intends to enhance equity-indexed annuities (EIAs) by introducing a new class of barrier options, termed icicled barrier options. The new class of options has a vertical (icicled) barrier along with the horizontal one of the ordinary barrier options, which may act as an additional knock-in or knock-out trigger. To improve the crediting method of EIAs, we propose a new EIA design, termed autocallable EIA, with payoff structure similar to the autocallable products except for the minimum guarantee, and further investigate the possibility of embedding various icicled barrier options into the plain point-to-point or the ratchet EIAs. Explicit pricing formulas for the proposed EIAs and the icicled barrier options are obtained under the Black–Scholes model. To the purpose, we derive the joint distribution of the logarithmic returns at the icicled time and the maturity, and their running maximum. As an application of the well-known reflection principle, the derivation itself is an interesting probability problem and the joint distribution plays a key role in the subsequent pricing stage. Our option pricing result can be easily transferred to EIAs or other equity-linked products. The pricing formulas for the EIAs and the options are illustrated through numerical examples.     

Optimal Berry–Esseen bound for parameter estimation of SPDE with small noise

We investigate a rate of convergence on asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for parameter $\theta$ appearing in parabolic SPDEs of the form

$d{u}^{?}(t,x)=(A_0+\theta A_1)u^{?}(t,x)dt+?dW(t,x),$

where $A_0$ and$A_1$ are partial differential operators, $W$ is a cylindrical Brownian motion (CBM) and $?\downarrow 0$. We find an optimal Berry–Esseen bound for central limit theorem (CLT) of the MLE. It is proved by developing techniques based on combining Malliavin calculus and Stein’s method.     

A bivariate distribution with Lomax and geometric margins

We develop a stochastic model describing the joint distribution of $(X,N)$, where $N$ has a geometric distribution while $X$ is the sum of $N$ dependent, heavy-tail Pareto components. Models of this form arise in many applications, ranging from hydro-climatology to finance and insurance. We present fundamental properties of this vector, including marginal and conditional distributions, moments, representations, and parameter estimation. We also include an example from finance, illustrating modeling potential of this new bivariate distribution.