Frontier spaces of vulnerability: Regional change,urbanization, drought and fire hazard in Santarém,Pará, Brazil

Fire hazard is a mounting concern in tropical rainforests of the Brazilian Amazon and has raised awareness within the science community of the links between agricultural fire use, drought and accidental fire. As a result, fire is being addressed as a crisis event with mitigation focused on those who light fires, particularly smallholder agriculturalists. Little attention is paid to the historical and ongoing ways in which Amazon landscapes and peoples have been made more susceptible to fire. Frontier regions of the Brazilian Amazon serve a variety of functions within the larger Brazilian society, including as extractive reserves for economic development, as social safety valves to reduce population pressures, and as areas to support urban regional integration. Each of these functions has impacted frontier environments in ways that create more flammable landscapes and/or shape the vulnerability of people to fire hazard. This paper uses a case study inthe Brazilian Lower Amazon to understand how vulnerability to fire hazard develops. It argues that if fire mitigation remains centered on fire as a crisis event, an understanding of what constitutes frontier spaces of vulnerability, both in landscape and in populations, will be limited.     

从交流和传播的视角解读越文化

本组讨论以越文化研究为例,探索地域文化研究的方法与视角。朱文斌一文检讨了当前越文化研究范式的局限,提出了范式转换的问题;陈越、梁涌两文分别从空间与时间的存在与发展上对越文化作了动态描述。其中,陈文从文化模式的角度,把越文化概括为“剑—书”文化;梁文则从交流与传播的角度,揭示了越文化的形成与发展。     

文化领导权与知识分子的使命

葛兰西基于文化领导权理论提出了一条总体性、内在性的、渐进性的文化变革途径,这一理论突出了知识分子在实现文化变革和社会变革中的重要作用。在文化困境普遍化的当今时代,文化变革已经具有了直接的社会变革的意义,通过知识分子化获得文化领导权也几乎成为社会变革的唯一途径。因此,为了能够引领文化变革,知识分子重要使命就是克服自身严重的分化状态,使自身和社会实现知识分子化,从而克服文化困境,进而推动社会变革。     

我国文化产业的梯级开发和利用初探

随着全球化的进一步扩张,一种全球文化消费的观念逐渐成形。世界各国相应加大对文化的保护和开发,物质文化与非物质文化遗产的保护和开发也提上政府的议事日程。适时将文化作为一种产业进行规范的开发和可持续利用,也是今后各级政府工作的重中之重。     

地区间个人收入差距的状况及特点(英文)

在地区收入差距的文献中,一直缺乏从个人收入角度出发的研究;而关于个人收入分配的研究,也很少考察地区差异。文章使用2005年全国1％人口普查数据,从个人收入角度描述了全国及（几种不同定义下的）地区间的个人收入差距,并分析了影响个人收入差距的因素,得到了一些有意义的结果。     

人生与文学的二重奏——叶梅、叶广芩创作观念与文学风格比较

同为少数民族女作家,叶梅和叶广芩有着截然不同的文风。她们又有着许多契合之处,如对自身民族文化的坚持和对地域之美的成功描写。两人都善于把人情伦理刻画得细致入微。两人最大的共同处还在于相似的创作经历与对人的命运的积极探讨。她们的小说作品之所以能成为广受好评的杰作,主要是因为对文学使命的秉承,自身多元文化与复杂经历融合的背景,不屈的文学个性;另一方面,独到的艺术风格和民族性,也使得她们的作品非同凡响。     

Influence of light level on the incidence of road casualties and the predicted effect of changing 'summertime'

Previous studies of the apparent influence of daylight level and hour changes on the incidence of road casualties are reviewed and refined, by analysis of official databases for Great Britain (1969–1973 and 1985–1994) and the USA (1991–1995). New statistical methods, based on precisely computed altitudes of the sun for each accident location, are used to model casualty frequencies aggregated by week and hour of day, and locally evaluated associations between individual casualty incidence and solar altitude. Estimates of the altitude factor are interpreted causally to give counterfactual estimates of the effect of different clock time schedules on countrywide casualty numbers.     

Point estimation after early stopping in a repeated measures trial

When the individual measurements are statistically independent, the maximum likelihood estimator calculated at the end of a sequential procedure overestimates the underlying effect. There are many clinical trials in which we are interested in comparing changes in responses between two treatment groups sequentially. Lee and DeMets (1991, JASA 86, 757–762) proposed a group sequential method for comparing rates of change when a response variable is measured for eaeh patient at successive follow-up visits. They assumed that the response follows the linear mixed effects model and derived the asymptotic joint distribution of the sequentially computed statistics. In this article, we consider the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), the median unbiased estimator (MUE) and the midpoint of a 100(1-α)% confidence interval as point estimators for the rate of change in the linear mixed effects model, and investigate their properties by Monte Carlo simulation.     

Marginal Changes in Random Parameters Ordered Response Models with Interaction Terms

Marginal changes of interacted variables and interaction terms in random parameters ordered response models are calculated incorrectly in econometric softwares. We derive the correct formulas for calculating these marginal changes. In our empirical example, we observe significant changes not only in the magnitude of the marginal effects but also in their standard errors, suggesting that the incorrect estimation of the marginal effects of these variables as is commonly practiced can render biased inferences on the findings.     

湖南文学百年兴衰溯源：－兼评田中阳《湖湘文化精神与二十世纪湖南文学》

政治本位的近世湖湘文化在中国近、现代史中曾独领一代风骚,然而在当代却遭遇了从极盛走向衰朽的命运湖南文学的百年盛衰,也恰恰能够从湖湘文化精神本身的优长与历史局限中找到潜因.20世纪湖南作家创作心理定势及其创作文本思想倾向、艺术特质都受到了湖湘文化深刻的影响和规约.田中阳之新著<湖湘文化精神与二十世纪湖南文学>便对这两者之间的深刻关联进行了富有创见性的精要论述.