On predictive distributions and Bayesian networks

In this paper we are interested in discrete prediction problems for a decision-theoretic setting, where the task is to compute the predictive distribution for a finite set of possible alternatives. This question is first addressed in a general Bayesian framework, where we consider a set of probability distributions defined by some parametric model class. Given a prior distribution on the model parameters and a set of sample data, one possible approach for determining a predictive distribution is to fix the parameters to the instantiation with the maximum a posteriori probability. A more accurate predictive distribution can be obtained by computing the evidence (marginal likelihood), i.e., the integral over all the individual parameter instantiations. As an alternative to these two approaches, we demonstrate how to use Rissanen's new definition of stochastic complexity for determining predictive distributions, and show how the evidence predictive distribution with Jeffrey's prior approaches the new stochastic complexity predictive distribution in the limit with increasing amount of sample data. To compare the alternative approaches in practice, each of the predictive distributions discussed is instantiated in the Bayesian network model family case. In particular, to determine Jeffrey's prior for this model family, we show how to compute the (expected) Fisher information matrix for a fixed but arbitrary Bayesian network structure. In the empirical part of the paper the predictive distributions are compared by using the simple tree-structured Naive Bayes model, which is used in the experiments for computational reasons. The experimentation with several public domain classification datasets suggest that the evidence approach produces the most accurate predictions in the log-score sense. The evidence-based methods are also quite robust in the sense that they predict surprisingly well even when only a small fraction of the full training set is used.     

From Birth to Death: A Social Monitoring Framework from New Zealand

The paper begins by outlining the development of social indicators work and social monitoring at the national level in New Zealand and comments on how this relates to the international movement. It describes the 'key' indicators/life stage approach developed by the New Zealand Planning Council in the early 1980s. This exercise continues from a university base and the fourth report in the series, entitled Tracking Social Change in New Zealand was published in early 1998. Examples are presented to show how the results can be used to highlight the policy implications of changing social trends.     

Social Sources of Failure in Education: The Case in East and Southeast Turkey

The efficiency of education in East and Southeast Turkey (E&SE) has long been a subject of debate. Both regions are similar to each other and different from the other regions in terms of economy, culture, ethnic origin, and languages spoken. Sahin (1997) studied the efficiency of education in the E&SE and proposed that illiteracy is significantly the highest in both regions, the female student population is significantly lower, and students are significantly less successful in nationwide general proficiency examinations (OSS and OYS) compared to all the other regions. Social sources of failure were studied in terms of the distinguishing characteristics of both regions, from both practical and theoretical standpoints. The findings indicated inequality of educational opportunity rooted in geographical, economical, social (cultural, linguistic), and political factors.     

韩国人口老龄化与老年人社会保障

随着近几十年生育率的持续下降及平均寿命的不断提高 ,韩国人口逐渐出现了老龄化趋势。到下世纪初韩国人口老龄化进程将进一步加快。韩国人口老龄化的显著特征 ,就是在急剧的现代化过程中 ,还没来得及健全老年人社会保障、福利、医疗、保健等制度的情况下将迎来迅速的人口老龄化 ,从而使全社会面临着不断增长的老年人福利、医疗、保健需求     

浅议当前农村养老保障体系中的缺陷和问题

目前农村家庭养老矛盾重重 ,面临农村养老保障由家庭养老向社会养老逐渐过渡的问题。在统筹社会养老基金时 ,应考虑农村养老保障体制转换成本问题 ,应由集体经济和国家负担部分转换成本。家庭养老以精神激励为主 ,但也要实行有效的监督。社会养老基金统筹可采用浮动制的收费办法 ,以弥补保费收缴水平偏低的矛盾     

工业革命时期英国卫斯理宗(1740-1840)

卫斯理宗(又称循道宗)诞生于18世纪的英国,它是国教牧师约翰·卫斯理创立的,卫斯理宗既是一场宗教革命--福音主义运动,又是一场声势浩大的群众运动,广泛地影响了英国工业革命前后时期的社会生活,具有巨大的社会整合功能.     

当前中国社会的四个利益群体

本文从经济利益关系的角度 ,将当今的中国社会各阶层区分为四个主要社会群体 ,即特殊获益者群体、普通获益者群体、利益相对受损群体和社会底层群体。任何改革都是利益关系的调整 ,都会造成物质利益的得失。本文证明大多数中国人在 2 0年的改革中还是获得了利益的。然而 ,利益获得的多寡是有差异的。本文分析了社会各群体的利益获得和利益相对受损。只有了解了此种情况 ,我们在将改革向前推进时 ,才会使其每一项措施能够尽可能地对于多数人有利 ,尽可能减少改革的负面效应     

浅析我国再就业工程所面临的问题及对策思路

随着我国企业改革的不断深化,全国各地不断涌现一大批下岗待业人员和为数众多的失业者。如若得不到妥善安置,势必影响企业深化改革的顺利进行和社会的稳定。再就业工程为一项旨在帮助下岗和失业职工重返工作岗位的宠大工程,已引起社会各界的重视。再就业工程在实施的两年多时间里,取得了一定成效,但也面临许多问题,要顺利解决这些问题,必须要有新的思路和对策     

秦汉之际乡里吏员杂考--以里耶秦简为中心的探讨

秦汉乡里吏员的构成有一个动态变化的过程。里耶秦简从多角度揭示了秦代吏员设置的情况,不仅弥补了文献记载的不足,也解决了一些关于秦汉乡里吏员的争议问题。以里耶秦简为参照并结合云梦秦简、江陵凤凰山汉简和张家山汉简,我们可以看出秦汉之际封建国家在乡里基层社会建立了多层次、多系统的官僚管理网络,如在乡里之中除了乡啬夫、乡佐、里典、里佐之外,还有属于都官系统的乡司空、仓主、田官、田典等;秦汉之际乡里吏员的秩次较以后秩次级别为高,乡啬夫的秩次从百廿石至二百石不等,达到了《汉书·百官公卿表》中长吏的最低秩次,乡啬夫恐怕是要经过中央任命的,里一级的领导人,也是要经过一定的法律程序由上级任命;秦汉之际吏员的设置反映了秦制对汉初制度的影响,而汉代制度的变化与发展又是以汉初制度为基础的。     

《战国秦汉时期的社会经济》研讨提纲

战国秦汉时期的社会经济以农业为基础,还有手工业生产和商品交换,二者作为社会经济的构成部分,从属于农业生产和人们的生活需要。农业表现为自耕农、地主庄园两种农业生产关系;农业生产力体现为手耕技术和铁农具的发展及耕作技术的进步;水利事业也有较大发展。手工业主要有冶铁业、铸铜业、纺织业、漆器业。商业发展表现为商品种类繁多;货币的产生和发展;以自然经济为基础的商品市场的形成;简明扼要的经商哲学的产生。