More Than Fear Induction: Toward an Understanding of People's Motivation to Be Well‐Prepared for Emergencies in Flood‐Prone Areas

This article examines the extent and manner to which evaluations of flood‐related precautions are affected by an individual's motivation and perception of context. It argues that the relationship between risk perception and flood risk preparedness can be fruitfully specified in terms of vulnerability and efficacy if these concepts are put into the perspective of prevention‐focused motivation. This relationship was empirically examined in a risk communication experiment in a delta area of the Netherlands (n = 1,887). Prevention‐focused motivation was induced by contextualized risk information. The results showed that prevention‐focused individuals were more sensitive to the relevance of potential precautions for satisfying their needs in the context they found themselves in. The needs included, but were not limited to, fear reduction. Due to the heterogeneity of the residents, the evaluations reflected individual differences in the intensity and the selectivity of precautionary processes. Four types of persons could be distinguished according to their evaluation of precautionary measures: a high‐scoring minority, two more selective types, and a low‐scoring minority. For policymakers and risk communicators it is vital to consider the nature of prevention motivation and the context in which it is likely to be high.     

Risk and the Five Hard Problems of Cybersecurity

This perspectives article addresses risk in cyber defense and identifies opportunities to incorporate risk analysis principles into the cybersecurity field. The Science of Security (SoS) initiative at the National Security Agency seeks to further and promote interdisciplinary research in cybersecurity. SoS organizes its research into the Five Hard Problems (5HP): (1) scalability and composability; (2) policy‐governed secure collaboration; (3) security‐metrics–driven evaluation, design, development, and deployment; (4) resilient architectures; and (5) understanding and accounting for human behavior. However, a vast majority of the research sponsored by SoS does not consider risk and when it does so, only implicitly. Therefore, we identify opportunities for risk analysis in each hard problem and propose approaches to address these objectives. Such collaborations between risk and cybersecurity researchers will enable growth and insight in both fields, as risk analysts may apply existing methodology in a new realm, while the cybersecurity community benefits from accepted practices for describing, quantifying, working with, and mitigating risk.     

Discrimination, Vulnerability, and Justice in the Face of Risk

Recent research finds that perceived risk is closely associated with race and gender. In surveys of the American public a subset of white males stand out for their uniformly low perceptions of environmental health risks, while most nonwhite and nonmale respondents reveal higher perceived risk. Such findings have been attributed to the advantageous position of white males in American social life. This article explores the linked possibility that this demographic pattern is driven not simply by the social advantages or disadvantages embodied in race or gender, but by the subjective experience of vulnerability and by sociopolitical evaluations pertaining to environmental injustice. Indices of environmental injustice and social vulnerability were developed as part of a U.S. National Risk Survey (n= 1,192) in order to examine their effect on perceived risk. It was found that those who regarded themselves as vulnerable and supported belief statements consistent with the environmental justice thesis offered higher risk ratings across a range of hazards. Multivariate analysis indicates that our measures of vulnerability and environmental injustice predict perceived risk but do not account for all of the effects of race and gender. The article closes with a discussion of the implications of these findings for further work on vulnerability and risk, risk communication, and risk management practices generally.     

网络系统漏洞及其扫描技术

网络在给人们带来便利的同时，网络自身的安全性问题越来越突出。通过对现有网络系统存在着的漏洞的分析和研究，提出了几种有效的漏洞扫描方法。为及时下载漏洞补丁或封闭未使用的端口进行漏洞弥补打下基础，对维护网络系统的安全起着重要的作用。     

What's Wrong with Hazard‐Ranking Systems? An Expository Note

Two commonly recommended principles for allocating risk management resources to remediate uncertain hazards are: (1) select a subset to maximize risk-reduction benefits (e.g., maximize the von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility of the selected risk-reducing activities), and (2) assign priorities to risk-reducing opportunities and then select activities from the top of the priority list down until no more can be afforded. When different activities create uncertain but correlated risk reductions, as is often the case in practice, then these principles are inconsistent: priority scoring and ranking fails to maximize risk-reduction benefits. Real-world risk priority scoring systems used in homeland security and terrorism risk assessment, environmental risk management, information system vulnerability rating, business risk matrices, and many other important applications do not exploit correlations among risk-reducing opportunities or optimally diversify risk-reducing investments. As a result, they generally make suboptimal risk management recommendations. Applying portfolio optimization methods instead of risk prioritization ranking, rating, or scoring methods can achieve greater risk-reduction value for resources spent.     

Vulnerability and Risk: Some Thoughts from a Political and Policy Perspective

Public policies to mitigate the impacts of extreme events such as hurricanes or terrorist attacks will differ depending on whether they focus on reducing risk or reducing vulnerability. Here we present and defend six assertions aimed at exploring the benefits of vulnerability-based policies. (1) Risk-based approaches to covering the costs of extreme events do not depend for their success on reduction of vulnerability. (2) Risk-based approaches to preparing for extreme events are focused on acquiring accurate probabilistic information about the events themselves. (3) Understanding and reducing vulnerability does not demand accurate predictions of the incidence of extreme events. (4) Extreme events are created by context. (5) It is politically difficult to justify vulnerability reduction on economic grounds. (6) Vulnerability reduction is a human rights issue; risk reduction is not.     

Gendered mobilities and vulnerabilities: refugee journeys to and in Europe

ABSTRACT

Recent refugee flows across the Mediterranean have been heterogeneous despite often being represented as predominantly male. However, there exist relatively little disaggregated data for adults and children which would enable us to achieve a better understanding of gendered mobilities in refugee journeys and settlement. Furthermore, such mobilities are affected by notions of vulnerability applied to those in need of protection, which prioritise the mobility of some categories. These include single parents, pregnant women, the elderly and unaccompanied minors. Drawing on data collected by international organisations and national sources (Greece, Italy) as well as a project EVI-MED (Constructing an evidence base of contemporary Mediterranean migration) (2015–2107), this article argues for the need to generate more disaggregated data (gender, age, family status) reflecting complex gendered mobilities and experiences of vulnerability.     

人类学视野中的灾难和文化要素的探讨

Like Professor Anthony Oliver -Smith, I wish to speak to the theories and analyses of disaster from an anthropological perspective. While Professor Oliver -Smith's paper covers the history of the anthr...     

公法保护视野下的弱势群体内涵探究

弱势群体的法律保护问题是当下社会所面临的重要课题。国内外对于弱势群体的内涵见仁见智,尚无共识性结论。科学界定弱势群体的内涵,对于弱势群体保护的各项工作而言是跬步之始。弱势群体以相对性、虚拟性、动态性、时代性以及地域性为主要特征,以"权利弱势"、"能力弱势"以及"其他弱势"为核心属性。     

Extending the Quantitative Assessment of Industrial Risks to Earthquake Effects

In the general framework of quantitative methods for natural‐technological (NaTech) risk analysis, a specific methodology was developed for assessing risks caused by hazardous substances released due to earthquakes. The contribution of accidental scenarios initiated by seismic events to the overall industrial risk was assessed in three case studies derived from the actual plant layout of existing oil refineries. Several specific vulnerability models for different equipment classes were compared and assessed. The effect of differing structural resistances for process equipment on the final risk results was also investigated. The main factors influencing the final risk values resulted from the models for equipment vulnerability and the assumptions for the reference damage states of the process equipment. The analysis of case studies showed that in seismic zones the additional risk deriving from damage caused by earthquakes may be up to more than one order of magnitude higher than that associated to internal failure causes. Critical equipment was determined to be mainly pressurized tanks, even though atmospheric tanks were more vulnerable to containment loss. Failure of minor process equipment having a limited hold‐up of hazardous substances (such as pumps) was shown to have limited influence on the final values of the risk increase caused by earthquakes.