灾害概念的再认识————兼论灾害社会科学研究流派及整合趋势

“灾害”作为灾害社会科学研究的核心概念,其社会与自然双重属性特质形塑了灾害多学科交叉研究现状。学界对灾害的定义和认知多从自然科学视角出发,而基于社会科学视角的灾害概念研究尚少。对灾害概念进行社会科学解读,可以将关于灾害概念的认识划分为“事件-功能主义导向”、“脆弱性导向”、“社会建构主义导向”、“不确定性导向”、“权利资源分配导向”,并以“危险源-关系链-结果”为逻辑架构结构化灾害概念,从而廓清社会科学领域关于灾害概念认识与研究谱系,并揭示出灾害社会科学的整合研究发展趋势。     

灾害情境中的集体行动及形成逻辑

近年来,随着灾害的频发,过去很少被重视的灾害社会学研究逐渐从边缘变为主流的研究领域。面对日益复杂的灾害现象时,如何进一步与主流社会学理论对话成为当前研究中一个迫切需要解决的问题。从集体行动视角进行探讨,并初步建立起灾害集体行动类型分析的框架。在灾害处置过程中,如何发挥灾害集体行动的正面效应而规避其负面风险？这是政府和学界高度关注的重大现实和理论问题。事实证明,在“天灾”定义的情境中,灾民对于外界援助会有较高的满意度,因而能促进积极的集体行动产生。反之,在“人祸”情境定义中,灾民就会将灾害责任的焦点从“宿命论”转移到“人祸论”上,不仅会引起灾民的强烈不满和抗争性行动,还会威胁到政治安全目标及社会的稳定。政府应通过灾害信息的及时播报、正向解释以及专家诠释等方式正确引导民众的灾害情境定调。同时,政府还应从关注灾害技术层面的修复到关注弱势群体、信任机制、公私协力、柔性治理、危机管理和社会公平等综合层面治理的转变,来发挥灾害治理的理想效果。     

Victim Selection and Kinematics: A Point-Light Investigation of Vulnerability to Attack

Three experiments used a point-light methodology to investigate whether movement style specifies vulnerability to physical attack. Both female (Experiment 1) and male (Experiment 2) walkers could be differentiated according to ease-of-attack based solely on the kinematic information provided whilst walking. Specific walking style features predicted ease-of-attack and profiles of prototypically easy to attack and difficult to attack walkers were identified. Variations in walking style as a function of clothing and footwear style were also shown to predict differences in ease-of-attack ratings (Experiment 3). Theoretical and practical implications of these findings are considered.     

Risk Analysis for Critical Asset Protection

This article proposes a quantitative risk assessment and management framework that supports strategic asset-level resource allocation decision making for critical infrastructure and key resource protection. The proposed framework consists of five phases: scenario identification, consequence and criticality assessment, security vulnerability assessment, threat likelihood assessment, and benefit-cost analysis. Key innovations in this methodology include its initial focus on fundamental asset characteristics to generate an exhaustive set of plausible threat scenarios based on a target susceptibility matrix (which we refer to as asset-driven analysis) and an approach to threat likelihood assessment that captures adversary tendencies to shift their preferences in response to security investments based on the expected utilities of alternative attack profiles assessed from the adversary perspective. A notional example is provided to demonstrate an application of the proposed framework. Extensions of this model to support strategic portfolio-level analysis and tactical risk analysis are suggested.     

Probabilistic Modeling of Flood Hazard and its Risk Assessment for Eastern Region of India

This article models flood occurrence probabilistically and its risk assessment. It incorporates atmospheric parameters to forecast rainfall in an area. This measure of precipitation, together with river and ground parameters, serve as parameters in the model to predict runoff and subsequently inundation depth of an area. The inundation depth acts as a guide for predicting flood proneness and associated hazard. The vulnerability owing to flood has been analyzed as social vulnerability $(V_S)$, vulnerability to property $(V_P)$, and vulnerability to the location in terms of awareness $(V_A)$. The associated risk has been estimated for each area. The distribution of risk values can be used to classify every area into one of the six risk zones—namely, very low risk, low risk, moderately low risk, medium risk, high risk, and very high risk. The prioritization regarding preparedness, evacuation planning, or distribution of relief items should be guided by the range on the risk scale within which the area under study falls. The flood risk assessment model framework has been tested on a real‐life case study. The flood risk indices for each of the municipalities in the area under study have been calculated. The risk indices and hence the flood risk zone under which a municipality is expected to lie would alter every day. The appropriate authorities can then plan ahead in terms of preparedness to combat the impending flood situation in the most critical and vulnerable areas.     

缓发性海洋灾害影响评估研究：基本视角与理论框架

作为缓发性海洋灾害的一种主要表现形式,海平面上升对沿海发展产生严重影响。在剖析灾害评估与脆弱性评估共性基础上,梳理海平面上升影响机理和沿海发展脆弱性评估现有文献发现,影响机理分析不系统、脆弱性评估方法不精细和评估结构差异明显等较为突出。基于此,提出海平面上升对沿海发展影响评估的理论框架,包括4个方面内容：构建海平面上升对沿海发展的影响机理机制、搭建海平面上升对沿海发展影响专业化云数据库、实施海平面上升影响下沿海发展脆弱性评估体系、划分海岸带脆弱性等级梯度标准。     

走出美德与规则“厚此薄彼”的道德误区

伦理学或道德哲学的思维理路可以区分为美德目的论传统与权利规范论传统.作如此界别的真实目的并不是要在两者之间营造“非此即彼”或者“厚此薄彼”的二中择一,而是希冀挖掘美德与规则的关键性联系,即美德的脆弱性,需要规则的强化和补充;规则的有限性,需要美德的培源与支持;敬重规则亦是一种美德;永远保持美德对规则的优先性,反之弗然.     

基于农户尺度的农业旱灾脆弱性综合评价——以湖北省随州市曾都区农户调查为例

从农户微观角度出发,以Hoovering模型为基础,建立了基于熵值法和层次分析法的农户农业旱灾脆弱性综合评价指标体系和评价模型,并利用其对湖北省襄阳市曾都区的农户调查数据进行了实证分析,结果表明:农田水利设施较好、地势平坦、家庭收入水平较高的村落,农户的整体农业旱灾脆弱性相对较低;农业贷款对农户的农业旱灾脆弱性有显著影响,灾害补贴对农户的农业旱灾脆弱性影响不显著。由此,提出降低易旱地区农户的农业旱灾脆弱性的建议:加强易旱地区的农田水利基础设施建设,特别是要加强基础水源工程建设进程;在易旱地区要加大农业贷款、农业保险、抗旱节水技术推广等惠农政策的力度。     

Attitudes to immigrants in South Africa: personality and vulnerability

While many countries across the world face increasing numbers of immigrants, the literature on attitudes to foreigners and immigrants focuses on Western countries. This article tests broad insights from Western countries in a specific non-Western context – South Africa, a country marked by sporadic violence against some immigrant groups. This provides an important validity check. Data from the 2013 South African Social Attitudes Survey and the 2013 World Value Survey are used to model attitudes to immigrants. In line with research on Western countries, individual personality is associated with differences in attitudes; people in vulnerable positions and those who lack a personal support mechanism are more likely to oppose immigrants. When implemented to reflect the specific context, research on attitudes to immigrants appears to generalise to non-Western contexts.     

Articulating selfhood through the therapeutic: Teaching for justice and social transformation in contradictory spaces

In this article, we argue that it is in engaging with the particularly socio-politically loaded topics such as racism, gender-based violence, homophobia, and classism, where we urgently need to find new ways of simultaneously opening up, holding, and containing the visceral responses of students in relation to continuously renegotiating boundaries of the learning environment. Specifically, we contend that under the current conditions of calls for decolonization in South African higher education and elsewhere, the university as a whole (its curriculum, the classroom and its dynamics, teaching methodologies, and its governance structures) needs to be questioned and its pedagogical practices in general need to be reviewed. We take as the point our separate, but related experiences of teaching in the Department of Political Studies at the University of the Witwatersrand. Some of the questions that frame our theoretical and methodological concerns are: How do we actually teach social justice related topics in diverse classrooms; how can we teach within, across, and beyond our own situatedness, especially where privileges and experiences of discrimination intersect and; how does one, ultimately, hold a space where the collective engagement with structural violence in its multiple intersecting expressions and the factual complexity of a dialogical pedagogical practice often lead to both moments of productivity and also repressive chaos? What we struggle with in this article, then, including the incidents foregrounded in it, are the complexities of engaging with social justice within the South African higher education context that is constantly grappling with being both the best and the worst example of political imagination.