Social Protection in the ‘Real World’: Issues,Models and Challenges

Social protection has evolved rapidly both conceptually and in practice, and is now a key policy issue in humanitarian and development debates. However, debates have sometimes been misled by approaches that pay inadequate attention to context‐specific factors, do not fully consider the sequence of interventions, and are too instrument‐centred. This article presents a conceptual framework to tailor social‐protection policy and implementation more closely to country contexts. Four stylised models of social protection are identified, corresponding to scenarios where social‐protection systems are absent, where elements of such systems exist, and where systems are emerging or have been consolidated. Each model is shown to lead to different challenges, implications and areas for further research.     

Young Clients of Hotel-Based Sex Workers in Bangladesh: Vulnerability to HIV,Risk Perceptions,and Expressed Needs for Interventions

ABSTRACT

A qualitative study was conducted among key informants and 53 young clients (15 to 24 years of age) of commercial sex workers from nine hotels in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Respondents reported first sexual encounter before 18 years of age, and reasons for purchasing sex were to prove masculinity or to reduce wet dreams and masturbation, thought to be detrimental to health. Limited knowledge of HIV and sexually transmitted infections was linked to high-risk sexual practices. Condom use was related to perceptions of cleanliness, status, and trust in the sex worker.

A hotel-based, confidential intervention program promoting safe sex practices among clients of sex workers is warranted.     

Risk Analysis of Terrorist Attacks

A quantitative probabilistic/systems analysis model is described which is useful for allocating resources to safeguard valuable documents or materials in either a fixed-site facility or a moving convoy against an overt terrorist attack. The model is also useful for ranking the sensitive areas at a site according to their survivability of a given hypothesized terrorist attempt. To compare various defense strategies and security configurations, the probability of a successful terrorist activity is computed based on event tree models of the site/security configuration. This calculation incorporates a realistic engagement model (in the event a guard force engages the terrorists prior to completion of their objective) and information on barrier penetration times (for example, distribution of the time to defeat a chain link fence or vault door, traverse an open area, and so forth). Two security analyses are described to illustrate the methodology. One example considers a terrorist attack on a convoy transporting a missile from a storage to a launch facility. The second example involves an attack on a munitions storage facility.     

Critical Asset and Portfolio Risk Analysis: An All-Hazards Framework

This article develops a quantitative all-hazards framework for critical asset and portfolio risk analysis (CAPRA) that considers both natural and human-caused hazards. Following a discussion on the nature of security threats, the need for actionable risk assessments, and the distinction between asset and portfolio-level analysis, a general formula for all-hazards risk analysis is obtained that resembles the traditional model based on the notional product of consequence, vulnerability, and threat, though with clear meanings assigned to each parameter. Furthermore, a simple portfolio consequence model is presented that yields first-order estimates of interdependency effects following a successful attack on an asset. Moreover, depending on the needs of the decisions being made and available analytical resources, values for the parameters in this model can be obtained at a high level or through detailed systems analysis. Several illustrative examples of the CAPRA methodology are provided.     

PFI项目特点对项目风险事件和脆弱性的影响

不同特点的项目需要不同的管理手段与之相匹配,这样才能有效的提高项目成功率.PFI是一种公私合营的项目运营方式.它的基本目标在于充分利用私有部门的资源来为公共部门项目提供优良的服务.在目前的文献中,还缺少对于PFI项目特点与项目成功(失败)之间关系的研究.对于PFI项目的特点在项目风险过程中所起的作用不是很清楚.通过分析5个英国PFI项目,本文识别出PFI项目的一些特点:新奇性、长期性、高复杂性、紧联结性、高度战略性、多目标性和严格的法律法规限制.本文提出PFI项目的这些特点在一定程度上与项目组织活动和管理活动相互作用,一方面提高了项目风险事件发生的概率,另一方面能够增加项目脆弱性.这些机制说明拥有这些特点的PFI项目需求很高的项目管理能力.     

European River Floods in a Changing World

Whereas the verdict is undecided about the effects of global warming on Europe's flood risks, it is clear that Europeans are becoming more exposed and vulnerable to floods. Losses are increasing dramatically, mainly because of population and capital moving into harm's way and also because of human-driven transformations of hydrological systems, including river basins and floodplains.     

重大突发公共卫生事件社会脆弱性评价及障碍因素分析

文章构建了重大突发公共卫生事件社会脆弱性评价指标体系,利用自然断点法将脆弱性按照由低到高分为Ⅰ—Ⅳ四个等级,以湖南省为例运用区间数—集对分析法、熵权法对湖南14个市州的社会脆弱性等级进行了评价,并采用障碍度模型分析了湖南省社会脆弱性的主要障碍因素。研究表明：长沙市和湘西自治州的社会脆弱性等级为Ⅰ级,株洲、湘潭、岳阳、常德、永州评价等级为Ⅱ级,社会脆弱性评价等级为Ⅲ级的是衡阳、邵阳、益阳、郴州、怀化和娄底,张家界的社会脆弱性最高,为Ⅳ级。不同市州社会脆弱性的主要来源以及降低脆弱性的有利因素因各地区人口、经济、卫生资源和政府防控等不同维度的发展差异而不尽相同。就湖南整体而言,人口、经济、卫生体系和政府防控各维度指标均对社会脆弱性存在影响,其中人口和经济因素的影响更大。     

Violence and Vulnerability: Children’s Strategies and the Logic of Violence in Burundi

This study explores how children in conflict‐affected Burundi deal with violence in their everyday lives. Focusing on schools as a context in which children are prepared for further roles in society, child‐centred, qualitative and mixed‐methods research was conducted at 36 primary schools throughout Burundi. Findings reveal that children use a variety of strategies to deal with violence they encounter. These strategies reflect a learned ‘logic of violence’, matching dynamics of violence and vulnerability in society at large. Children’s strategies are ultimately aimed at reducing vulnerability to (future) violence and indicative of the omnipresence of violence and uncertainty in Burundi.     

Credulity rather than general trust may increase vulnerability to fraud in older adults: a moderated mediation model

The present study aimed to clarify whether it is credulity or general trust that specifically affects vulnerability to fraud, as well as investigating the mediating role of susceptibility to persuasion and the moderating role of greed in this relationship. 254 Chinese older adults completed measures of credulity, general trust, susceptibility to persuasion, greed, and vulnerability to fraud. The results showed that credulity, but not general trust, was positively correlated with vulnerability to fraud, after controlling for demographic covariates. Susceptibility to persuasion partially mediated the effect of credulity on vulnerability to fraud. In addition, this mediating effect of susceptibility to persuasion was only significant in older adults with higher levels of greed. Our findings suggest that credulity, rather than general trust, is a risk factor in vulnerability to fraud among older adults, and may inform the development of supportive interventions to reduce this population’s risk of falling victim to fraud.     

Urban heritage endangerment at the interface of future cities and past heritage: A spatial vulnerability assessment

Uncontrolled urban growth has been an increasing concern in many regions throughout the world. Generated by a natural tendency of population growth in relation to unsustainable land use, city sprawl has led to complex spatial developments that are creating both benefits to, and challenges for decision makers. A major problem inherent in the uncontrolled growth of cities is the threat to the fragile cultural and ecological heritage, which may escalate to permanent and irreversible damage as a result of factors such as environmental depletion and landscape decay. Using modern geosciences and spatial information technologies as predictive tools to analyse and forecast urban growth, a regional spatial decision system may be useful in order to provide seemly and timely information on the risk of overburdening the carrying capacity regarding the historico-cultural heritage at local and regional levels.The present paper develops a predictive toolkit for urban heritage in relation to urban cultural endangerment. This common problem is shared through many regions of the world and is increasingly jeopardizing fragile archaeological landscape due to urban pressure. In this sense, and to forecast an example of this common pressure, the Algarve is exemplified as a laboratory for testing this novel methodology, relying on a combined analysis of urban growth potential and threats to the abundant presence of archaeological heritage in the area. Our appro ach supports the paradigm of city growth in the context of a common agenda emerging from the Valetta Treaty, in which preserving the archaeological heritage is recognized as a key element for sustainable development. The study provides novel empirical results from the above mentioned modelling approach, with important lessons for the developing world. This paper proposes as such, an integrative spatial analysis methodology on the issue of historico-cultural endangerment, which is a new approach to comparative spatial analysis for decision making on urban heritage endangerment at the regional scale. Later, the discussion extends to a more conceptual level of urban planning by considering the questions: Is urban sprawl influencing the way we perceive cities? If so, are there positive advantages in the paradigm of urban growth and urban sprawl which might help us to protect past heritage while ensuring sustainable and modern cities?