Leverage and evaluation effectiveness

Weaknesses in evaluations often can be traced to structural limitations in the positions of evaluation researchers. Conventional human relations techniques often are an insufficient basis for securing strong support for evaluation research. Strategies for increasing evaluation research leverage are reviewed. Alignment of evaluation research with regulatory bodies with authority to suspend public program expenditures is advocated. Several likely obstacles in the development of the regulatory evaluation model are anticipated and addressed.     

A consistent system of conditional probabilities which is not compatible with any random field

A consistent, Markovian family of conditional densities is constructed which is not compatible with any random field.     

A simple test of symmetry about an unknown median

A simple test statistic for testing symmetry of a distribution function about an unknown value is presented. The asymptotic distributions under symmetry and asymmetry are derived. Using the normal as a “calibration” distribution, the critical values of the test are calculated by Monte Carlo methods. Comparisons with other tests indicate that this procedure performs well.     

Analysis of overdispersed paired count data

This article is about the statistical analysis of overdispersed paired count data for comparing two treatments. The data consist of the number of events obtained in a stratum during the fixed observation period. Three types of model are discussed: the Poisson, a mixed, and a semiparametric model. Overdispersion is represented in the last two models but not in the Poisson model. Of particular interests are to examine whether there is any loss of efficiency in using the estimate of the treatment effect obtained under other two models if the mixed model is true, and also whether overdispersion leads to a larger variance of the estimate than that expected from the Poisson model. It is shown that all three models provide the same estimate of the treatment effect (i.e., there is no loss of efficiency) and that the variance of the estimate of the treatment effect obtained under the Poisson model is the same as that based on the mixed model. However, the semiparametric model provides the variance of the estimate larger than those obtained under the other two models.     

Total factor productivity and shareholder returns in banking

This paper examines shareholder value drivers in European banking focusing on the efficiency and productivity features of individual banks. In particular, we analyse the value relevance of bank cost efficiency and total factor productivity (TFP) (in all its components, including technological change, pure technical efficiency change and scale efficiency change) to see how these influence shareholder value creation in European banking. The paper focuses on the French, German, Italian and U.K. banking systems over the period 1995–2002 and includes both listed and non-listed banks. We find that TFP changes best explain variations in shareholder value (measured by market-adjusted returns, MAR, for listed banks and by the ratio of EVA_bkg to invested capital at time t−1 for non-listed banks). In both samples, we also find that technological change seems to be the most important component of TFP influencing shareholder value creation in European banking.     

3D电影的冷思考——基于叙事的视角

一部优秀的3D电影是技术与艺术的完美结合,3D电影在给观众带来视觉震撼的同时也对传统的电影美学带来了冲击。3D技术华丽的包装是否能掩盖电影原本老套的叙事结构和单一的故事情节?纵观电影史,技术上的重大突破都对作为艺术的电影产生巨大的影响;但却不应忘记一部好的电影终究离不开好的叙事,3D电影也不例外。另外,由于受市场需求影响,目前3D电影的叙事模式多为好莱坞商业片惯用的叙事模式,电影叙事的作用有被弱化或被缩小的倾向,因此,需要对3D电影的叙事问题进行思考。     

全球金融危机过后中美两国对中美关系的构想及认识研究

世界金融危机后,随着美国国际地位的下滑和中国国力快速提升,美国对中国的戒心也随之不断增加,在这样的背景下,中美两国间的认识将会发生怎样的变化?对这一议题进行分析对于中美关系的未来展望意义重大。根据中美之间的相互认识与构想来看,中美两国在经济方面维持密切的合作关系,但中国和美国依然就在核心利益方面进行着相互竞争。而且可以预测在未来的国际舞台上,中国将以更积极的姿态,更明确的立场处理中美关系。因此,中国对于核心利益的坚定态度、中美间的矛盾,以及基于相互尊重的对等的中美关系,所有这些都必将让中美间的竞争更加激烈。     

三维激光扫描仪在城市外立面采集成图中的应用

当前我国正进入城市化快速增长时期。如何进行旧城的更新改造和现代化建设,是当今城市化面临的重大课题,传统测绘手段在满足旧城改造设计方面体现诸多不足。本文以Trimble GX地面三维激光扫描仪为测量设备,开展城市外立面采集方面的应用,后期采用天正软件进行城市外立面图的绘制与编辑,分析并总结了采集与后处理过程中问题与误区。     

比较优势、竞争优势与区域一体化

根据新结构经济学理论,遵循比较优势是经济发展成功的“药方”。根据国家竞争优势的“钻石体系”,一个国家发展的产业需要“充分利用当地丰富的资源”“国内有大市场”“国内形成产业集群”“国内是竞争市场”等四个条件才能具有竞争优势。但是,竞争优势的第一个条件其实就是由当地的要素禀赋所决定的比较优势,第三、第四个条件以所发展的产业符合比较优势为前提,而符合比较优势的产业不仅可以有国内市场也可以有国际市场,所以,比钻石理论的第二个条件所强调的市场规模还大。因此,竞争优势的建立离不开比较优势的发挥,按照比较优势发展是竞争优势的基础,只有充分依靠和发挥自己的比较优势才能建立自己的竞争优势。只有充分发挥各个地区的比较优势,通过区域一体化,形成更大的产业集群,这样才能将自身的比较优势更好地转变为在国内国际市场的竞争优势。     

幼儿园开展0-3岁早期教育服务指导的现状调查与分析——以陕西省为例

采用问卷法,面向全省范围内的幼儿园及0-3岁婴幼儿家长进行问卷调研,了解已开展过0-3岁早期教育服务指导的幼儿园基本现状,以及幼儿园对于开展0-3岁早期教育服务指导的总体意愿;了解家长在0-3岁早期教育方面的需求及现状。调查分析发现,幼儿园超半数有开展0-3岁早期教育服务指导工作的意愿;幼儿园受家长认可、最突出的优势是“办园规范,值得信赖”;服务指导最主要形式为亲子活动和托班;政策、师资、资金是所需的主要支持。据此建议应及早出台相关具体政策规范幼儿园开展0-3岁早期教育指导服务,幼儿园也应从师资、形式、内容、场地、时间等方面提升专业性、兼顾灵活性以满足家长需求,幼儿园开展0-3岁早期教育指导服务应在先总结典型经验的基础上逐步推广。