Catastrophe Risk Models for Evaluating Disaster Risk Reduction Investments in Developing Countries

Major natural disasters in recent years have had high human and economic costs, and triggered record high postdisaster relief from governments and international donors. Given the current economic situation worldwide, selecting the most effective disaster risk reduction (DRR) measures is critical. This is especially the case for low‐ and middle‐income countries, which have suffered disproportionally more economic and human losses from disasters. This article discusses a methodology that makes use of advanced probabilistic catastrophe models to estimate benefits of DRR measures. We apply such newly developed models to generate estimates for hurricane risk on residential structures on the island of St. Lucia, and earthquake risk on residential structures in Istanbul, Turkey, as two illustrative case studies. The costs and economic benefits for selected risk reduction measures are estimated taking account of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. We conclude by emphasizing the advantages and challenges of catastrophe model‐based cost‐benefit analyses for DRR in developing countries.     

同异反统计方法的应用及优势

介绍了一种新的统计方法———同异反统计 ,例举了这种统计方法的应用 ,并与传统数理统计方法相比较 ,肯定这种新统计方法的优越性     

《自然辩证法》的核心思想与数学文化的哲学思考

对恩格斯的《自然辨证法》的核心思想进行了归纳总结,对数学史上的数学哲学进行了诠释,并从哲学的高度对数学文化的内涵进行了分析和思考,对数学在自然科学中的重要作用进行了进一步讨论,并以微积分为例,讨论了《自然辨证法》对数学文化的重要指导作用。     

The effect of different data structures,sample sizes on model fit measures

In this study, our aim was to investigate the changes of different data structures and different sample sizes on the structural equation modeling and the influence of these factors on the model fit measures. Examining the created structural equation modeling under different data structures and sample sizes, the evaluation of model fit measures were performed with a simulation study. As a result of the simulation study, optimization and negative variance estimation problems have been encountered depending on the sample size and changing correlations. It was observed that these problems disappeared either by increasing the sample size or the correlations between the variables in factor. For upcoming studies, the choice of RMSEA and IFI model fit measures can be suggested in all sample sizes and the correlation values for data sets are ensured the multivariate normal distribution assumption.     

区域主导产业评价指标与数学模型

以现有研究成果为基础,建立了区域主导产业评价指标体系;基于灰色聚类的思想,提出了评价区域主导产业优度的数学模型-定权聚类评估模型,并对河南省武陟县工业主导产业选择进行了实证研究。     

基于结构方程建模的区域科技创新能力评价

现有区域科技创新能力评价方法大多忽视了指标体系中各因素之间可能存在的相关关系和层级差异。结构方程建模能够过滤误差、同时考察不同层级变量间的直接作用与间接作用,找出变量间存在的内在结构关系,在分析区域科技创新能力评价指标体系各种变量间多种关系方面具有可行性和必要性。应用SEM时除了要注意选取恰当指标、构建合适模型以外,还应注意对样本容量、缺失数据的处理和信度效度的检验。     

提高大学数学教学效果的几点思考

文章从素质教育的要求出发,结合笔者从事大学数学的教学实践,就如何提高学生的学习积极性做了几点探索.     

Human Agency in Disaster Planning: A Systems Approach

Current approaches to risk management place insufficient emphasis on the system knowledge available to the assessor, particularly in respect of the dynamic behavior of the system under threat, the role of human agents (HAs), and the knowledge available to those agents. In this article, we address the second of these issues. We are concerned with a class of systems containing HAs playing a variety of roles as significant system elements—as decisionmakers, cognitive agents, or implementers—that is, human activity systems. Within this family of HAS, we focus on safety and mission‐critical systems, referring to this subclass as critical human activity systems (CHASs). Identification of the role and contribution of these human elements to a system is a nontrivial problem whether in an engineering context, or, as is the case here, in a wider social and public context. Frequently, they are treated as standing apart from the system in design or policy terms. Regardless of the process of policy definition followed, analysis of the risk and threats to such a CHAS requires a holistic approach, since the effect of undesirable, uninformed, or erroneous actions on the part of the human elements is both potentially significant to the system output and inextricably bound together with the nonhuman elements of the system. We present a procedure for identifying the potential threats and risks emerging from the roles and activity of those HAs, using the 2014 flooding in southwestern England and the Thames Valley as a contemporary example.     

辽中北洼锦州A 区东营组浊积扇地震描述研究

针对渤海油田辽中北洼锦州A 区东二下段不同类型浊积扇内部反射结构及其地震响应特征认识难度大的问 题，开展了浊积扇地震描述研究。从浊积扇形成机理出发，根据围区钻遇浊积扇体不同部位探井的相应井段的岩性及 组合结构等典型特征，对不同浊积扇沉积亚相的沉积特征、岩性结构、测井和地震响应特征进行了系统的分析和描述。 在此基础上，建立不同类型浊积扇模型进行地震正演模拟，并对其地震响应特征进行了深入研究，最后利用地震多属 性预测技术对浊积扇的内幕进行了精细地刻画。预测了辽中北洼锦州A 区东营组浊积扇有利储层发育部位，研究结 果对该区浊积扇岩性油气藏勘探具有指导意义。     

试论在高师院校《实变函数》教学中引入现代数学思想的必要性及可能的途径

阐述了在高师院校实变函数教学中引入现代数学思想的必要性 ;指出目前在实变函数教学中较系统和全面地介绍分形的数学思想和应用是一个非常好的课题 ,并给出了具体的理由和可供操作的可能途径