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Hiroyuki Matsuda Yasuto Takenaka Tetsukazu Yahara Yuji Uozumi 《Researches on Population Ecology》1998,40(3):271-278
We estimate the extinction probability of a large and decreasing population, the southern bluefin tuna. This tuna was listed
as critically endangered by the World Conservation Union (IUCN) in 1996. However, the absolute population size is still large
and the extinction probability within the next half century is negligible if the recent population decline rate does not increase
in the future. IUCN’s criterion with respect to the population decline rate should be linked to the absolute population size,
if this is estimated. Several methods estimating the probability of extinction conclude that the southern bluefin tuna population
will be below 500 mature individuals within the next 100 years and may be listed as vulnerable. These analyses suggest that
extinction risk assessment is useful for management action for taxa that still have large population and are rapidly decreasing. 相似文献
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