Robust small area estimation

Small area estimation has received considerable attention in recent years because of growing demand for small area statistics. Basic area‐level and unit‐level models have been studied in the literature to obtain empirical best linear unbiased prediction (EBLUP) estimators of small area means. Although this classical method is useful for estimating the small area means efficiently under normality assumptions, it can be highly influenced by the presence of outliers in the data. In this article, the authors investigate the robustness properties of the classical estimators and propose a resistant method for small area estimation, which is useful for downweighting any influential observations in the data when estimating the model parameters. To estimate the mean squared errors of the robust estimators of small area means, a parametric bootstrap method is adopted here, which is applicable to models with block diagonal covariance structures. Simulations are carried out to study the behaviour of the proposed robust estimators in the presence of outliers, and these estimators are also compared to the EBLUP estimators. Performance of the bootstrap mean squared error estimator is also investigated in the simulation study. The proposed robust method is also applied to some real data to estimate crop areas for counties in Iowa, using farm‐interview data on crop areas and LANDSAT satellite data as auxiliary information. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 37: 381–399; 2009 © 2009 Statistical Society of Canada     

Moderate deviations for LS estimator in simple linear EV regression model

In this paper, we consider the following simple linear Errors-in-Variables (EV) regression model _ηi=θ+β_xi+_?i${\eta }_i=\theta +\beta x_i+{?}_i$, _ξi=_xi+_δi${\xi }_i=x_i+{\delta }_i$, 1?i?n$1?i?n$. The moderate deviation principle for the least squares (LS) estimators of the unknown parameters θ$\theta$, β$\beta$ in the model are obtained.     

Time series analysis and stochastic forecasting: An econometric study of mortality and life expectancy

Methods for time series modeling of mortality and stochastic forecasting of life expectancies are explored, using Canadian data. Consideration is given first to alternative indexes of aggregate mortality. Age-sex group system models are then estimated. Issues in the forecasting of life expectancies are discussed and their quantitative implications investigated. Experimental stochastic forecasts are presented and discussed, based on nonparametric, partially parametric, and fully parametric methods, representing alternatives to the well known Lee-Carter method. Some thoughts are offered on the interpretation of historical data in generating future probability distributions, and on the treatment of demographic uncertainty in long-run policy planning. All correspondence to Frank T. Denton. This paper is a revised version of one presented at the Annual Congress of the European Society for Population Economics, Athens, Greece, June 2001. The underlying work was carried out as part of the SEDAP (Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population) Research Program supported by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada, Statistics Canada and the Canadian Institute for Health Information. Ronald Lee provided comments that were very helpful in revising an earlier version of the paper. We thank him and participants at the ESPE session at which that version was presented. We thank also the Journal's anonymous referees. Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang.     

Some families of group divisible designs

Generalizing methods of constructions of Hadamard group divisible designs due to Bush (1979), some new families of semi-regular or regular group divisible designs are produced. Furthermore, new nonisomorphic solutions for some known group divisible designs are given, together with useful group divisible designs not listed in Clatworthy (1973).     

A criterion for connectedness in two-associate class PBIB designs

A necessary and sufficient condition, in terms of its parameters, is established for a two-associate-class PBIB design to be connected.     

A note on the construction of optimal linear codes

Let us denote by (n,k,d)-code, a binary linear code with code length nk information symbols and the minimum distance d. It is well known that the problem of obtaining a binary linear code whose code length n is minimum among (n,k,d)-codes for given integers k and d, is equivalent to solve a linear programming whose solutions correspond to a minimum redundancy error-correcting code. In this paper it will be shown that for some given integers d, there exists no solution of the linear programming except a solution which is obtained using a flat in a finite projective geometry.     

Sequential estimators and the Cramér-Rao lower bound

While all nonsequential unbiased estimators of the normal mean have variances which must obey the Cramér-Rao inequality, it is shown that some sequential unbiased estimators do not.