Business strategy and the social norm of tipping

Tipping is an important economic phenomenon, involving about $47 billion a year in the US food industry alone, and trillions of dollars across different occupations and countries over the years. Moreover, tipping is a major source of income for millions of workers. This article discusses the implications of tipping for business strategy in the relevant industries. For example, firms can choose to impose a compulsory service charge in lieu of tipping - what are the advantages and disadvantages of doing so? How does tipping change the profit-maximizing level of investing in screening job applicants, training workers, monitoring them, and providing performance-based incentives by the firm? Can industries such as the music industry use tips (i.e., prices being voluntary and determined by the customers) as an alternative business model?     

Non‐parametric interval estimation for the partial area under the ROC curve

Accurate diagnosis of disease is a critical part of health care. New diagnostic and screening tests must be evaluated based on their abilities to discriminate diseased conditions from non‐diseased conditions. For a continuous‐scale diagnostic test, a popular summary index of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is the area under the curve (AUC). However, when our focus is on a certain region of false positive rates, we often use the partial AUC instead. In this paper we have derived the asymptotic normal distribution for the non‐parametric estimator of the partial AUC with an explicit variance formula. The empirical likelihood (EL) ratio for the partial AUC is defined and it is shown that its limiting distribution is a scaled chi‐square distribution. Hybrid bootstrap and EL confidence intervals for the partial AUC are proposed by using the newly developed EL theory. We also conduct extensive simulation studies to compare the relative performance of the proposed intervals and existing intervals for the partial AUC. A real example is used to illustrate the application of the recommended intervals. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 39: 17–33; 2011 © 2011 Statistical Society of Canada     

SOVEREIGNS VERSUS BANKS: CREDIT,CRISES, AND CONSEQUENCES

Two separate narratives have emerged in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis. One interpretation speaks of private financial excess and the key role of the banking system in leveraging and deleveraging the economy. The other emphasizes the public sector balance sheet and worries about the risks of lax fiscal policy. However, the two may interact in important and understudied ways. This paper examines the co‐evolution of public and private sector debt in advanced countries from 1870 to 2012. We find that in advanced economies financial crises are not preceded by public debt build‐ups nor are they more likely when public debt is high. However, history shows that high levels of public debt tend to exacerbate the effects of private sector deleveraging after financial crises. The economic costs of financial crises rise substantially if large private sector credit booms are unwound at times when the public sector has little capacity to pursue macroeconomic and financial stabilization.     

Economic growth and stagnation with endogenous health and fertility

This article offers a theory of economic growth, stagnation, and demo-economic transition that originates from external effects of child-bearing, health expenditure, and education under endogenous mortality. Facing a hierarchy of needs, parents always consume and want to have a family. Child quality, measured as a two-dimensional vector of child health and schooling, becomes only affordable when uncontrollable mortality is sufficiently low. Child quality expenditure initiates an economic take-off and convergence towards perpetual growth while its absence may cause convergence towards an equilibrium of economic stagnation and high fertility. This way, the article provides an explanation for diverging growth rates from a cross-country perspective.I would like to thank Noël Bonneuil, Piero Manfredi, Nikolaus Siegfried, Richard Tol, and two anonymous referees for useful comments. Responsible editor: Alessandro Cigno.     

The impact of physical activity on employment

Using cross-sectional data from 25 European countries this study estimates the probability of an individual being employed controlling for his/her participation and frequency of participation in physical activity. Accounting for endogeneity, the regional prevalence of physical activity calculated from the sample is used as an instrument for individual participation suggesting a causal effect of physical activity on employment, especially for males.     

Air pollution and stock returns in the US

Health related research documents that air pollution has negative mood effects. Experimental works in psychology relate bad mood to increased risk aversion. Studies in financial economics report an observed link between mood effects and stock market returns. This study therefore investigates whether the mood effects caused by air pollution can have economic implications. It examines the relationship between air pollution and stock returns using data from the Air Quality Index, and stock returns from four stock exchanges in the US. We find that air pollution is negatively related to stock returns, even when controlling for other variables. The relationship becomes weaker as the distance of the stock exchange from the polluted area increases. The results also indicate that air pollution may even affect local traders investing in securities exchanges located far from the polluted area. The findings imply that a profitable trading strategy can be constructed.     

Are nurses more altruistic than real estate brokers?

We report results from a dictator game experiment with nurse students and real estate broker students as dictators, and Amnesty International as the recipient. Although brokers contributed substantial amounts, nurses contributed significantly more, on average 76% of their endowment. In a second part, subjects chose between a certain repetition of the experiment and a 50-50 chance of costly exit. About one third of the brokers and half of the nurses chose the exit option. While generosity was indeed higher among nurses, even when taking exits into account, the difference cannot readily be attributed to different degrees of altruism.     

ECOLOGY,TRADE, AND STATES IN PRE‐COLONIAL AFRICA

State capacity matters for growth. I test Bates' explanation of pre‐colonial African states. He argues that trade across ecological boundaries promoted states. I find that African societies in ecologically diverse environments had more centralized states. This is robust to reverse causation, omitted heterogeneity, and alternative interpretations of the link between diversity and states. The result survives including non‐African societies. I test mechanisms connecting trade to states, and find that trade supported class stratification between rulers and ruled. I underscore the importance of ethnic institutions and inform our knowledge of the effects of trade on institutions.     

EXPANSIONARY AUSTERITY? INTERNATIONAL EVIDENCE

This paper investigates the short‐term effects of fiscal consolidation on economic activity in OECD economies. We examine contemporaneous policy documents to identify changes in fiscal policy motivated by a desire to reduce the budget deficit and not by responding to prospective economic conditions. Using this new dataset, our estimates suggest that fiscal consolidation has contractionary effects on private demand and GDP. By contrast, estimates based on conventional measures of the fiscal policy stance used in the literature support the expansionary fiscal contractions hypothesis but appear to be biased toward overstating expansionary effects.     

Technology roadmapping for technology-based product-service integration: A case study

Today, since a single product is no longer sufficient to cope with the dynamic market environment, firms are trying to provide the integrated offering of products and services. However, despite the importance and utility of product-service integration, a limited approach has been conducted regarding the planning of the strategic management of integrated offering. To deal with this issue, this paper firstly suggests the concept and typology of technological interface in product-service integration. Based on the technological interface, a generic structure of product-service integrated roadmap is developed. Extended from the generic structure, this paper finally proposes the typological configurations of integrated roadmap according to the technological interface and investigates the usage, characteristics, and roadmapping processes.