Inferences concerning interpersonal choices given anonymously

It may be difficult or impossible to make a reliable empirical investigation of an unknown network of interpersonal choices or contacts if these are in some respect sensitive for the individuals involved. We consider how choice data given anonymously can be used to reveal various features of the network. Using tools from statistical decision theory and information theory we can determine risks and capacities of disclosing choice data, the graph structure of choice data and its numbers of loops and mutuals. We give some general results, illustrate the combinatorial complexity of the problem and comment upon the computational difficulties.     

Procedures for improving the mle for ordered binomial parameters

The problem is that of estimating the probabilities of m independent binomial random variables when their probabilities are known to be nondecreasing and the loss function is squared error. In the cases where the m.l.e. is inadmissible (essentially when the total number of trials is 7 or more) we present a method for modifying the m.l.e. to get a better estimator. The method requires a series of changes. At each step we alter the action taken by the m.l.e. on each of three, appropriately chosen, points in the sample space.     

A class of Shrunken estimators for normal mean

This paper presents a class of estimators for the mean of a normal population and determines the conditions on characterizing scalars under which the class of estimators uniformly dominates over the conventional sample mean according to the mean-square-error criterion.     

东亚区域经济合作的约束条件及主导力量——“10＋1”合作模式可行性研究

在全球各区域经济合作中,东亚区域经济合作处于制度推进的初级阶段。在东亚合作约束条件序列中,经济整合度和贸易开放约束较小,主导国和主导力量约束次之,政治和文化约束最大。与欧洲和北美区域经济合作不同,东亚文化背景殊异;百年殖民历史伤痛犹新;放弃国家主权疑虑重重,还没有形成能够协调各方利益和促进区域经济合作的稳定制度机制。在内部和外部条件限制下,东亚经济一体化只能通过三个相互割裂的“东盟10 l”机制“迂回”推进,而且在相当长时期合作采取的是自由贸易区方式。     

Comparing relative importance of the same component in a series system in two environments

The relative performance of a component of a series system in two different environments is considered. The conditional probability of the failure of the system due to the failure of the specified component given that the system failed before time t is regarded as a measure of relative importance of the component to the system. A U-statistic test for checking the equality of the relative importance of the component to the system in two different environments against the alternative that the relative importance is smaller in one of the environments, is proposed. Some simulation results for estimating the power of the test are reported. The proposed test is applied to one real data set and it is seen that a different aspect of the data is brought out by this comparison than that by the comparisons of the absolute importance functions such as the subsurvival functions, considered in earlier studies.     

Models and methods for pairing data

This paper deals with models and methods for count data derived from observations on pairing phenomena. Pairs formed from “similar” members are excluded. Various models are considered and analyzed. Particular emphasis is on developing methods for testing whether particular pairs are prone to occur more or less often than expected by chance.     

On a multiple endpoints testing problem

In a clinical trial comparing drug with placebo, where there are multiple primary endpoints, we consider testing problems where an efficacious drug effect can be claimed only if statistical significance is demonstrated at the nominal level for all endpoints. Under the assumption that the data are multivariate normal, the multiple endpoint-testing problem is formulated. The usual testing procedure involves testing each endpoint separately at the same significance level using two-sample t-tests, and claiming drug efficacy only if each t-statistic is significant. In this paper we investigate properties of this procedure. We show that it is identical to both an intersection union test and the likelihood ratio test. A simple expression for the p-value is given. The level and power function are studied; it is shown that the test may be conservative and that it is biased. Computable bounds for the power function are established.     

Demographic change, macroeconomic conditions, and the murder rate: The case of the United States, 1934–2006

Fluctuations in aggregate crime rates contrary to recent shifts in the age distribution of the U.S. population have cast doubt on the predictive power of the age–crime hypothesis. By examining a longer time horizon, back to the early 1930s, we show that the percentage of the young population is a robust predictor of the observed large swings in the U.S. murder rate over time. However, changes in the misery index—the sum of the inflation and unemployment rates—significantly contribute to explaining changes in the murder rate. This applies, in particular, to those changes that are at odds with the long-run trend of the U.S. age distribution, such as the decline in the murder rate in the latter part of the 1970s or its increase starting around the middle of the 1980s.     

A study of BIB designs through support matrices

This paper deals with the existence and nonexistence of BIB designs with repeated blocks. The approach is an algebraic one. The concept of a support matrix is introduced and some of its basic properties are noted. Some basic examples of support matrices are given when the block size is 3. The connection between full column rank proper support matrices and irreducible designs is explored and some examples of such matrices are given.     

Goodness-of-fit tests for a heavy tailed distribution

We study the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, Berk–Jones test, score test and their integrated versions in the context of testing the goodness-of-fit of a heavy tailed distribution function. A comparison of these tests is conducted via Bahadur efficiency and simulations.