On change point test for ARMA–GARCH models: Bootstrap approach

The problem of testing for a parameter change has been a core issue in time series analysis. It is well known that the estimates-based CUSUM test often suffers from severe size distortions in general GARCH type models. The residual-based CUSUM test has been used as an alternative, which, however, has a defect not to detect the ARMA parameter changes in ARMA–GARCH models. As a remedy, one can employ the score vector-based CUSUM test in ARMA–GARCH models as in Oh and Lee (0000). However, it shows some size distortions for relatively small samples. Hence, we consider the bootstrap counterpart for obtaining a more stable test. Focus is made on the verification of the weak consistency of the proposed test. An empirical study is illustrated for its evaluation.     

The extended two-sample problem: nonparametric case

The classical two-sample problem is extended here to the case where the distribution functions of the observable random variables are specified functions of unknown distribution functions and the null hypotheses to be tested or the parameters to be estimated relate to these unknown distributions. Various properties of the proposed rank tests and derived estimates are studied.     

Racial conflict and the malignancy of identity

This paper demonstrates how our sense of identity can emerge out of mere markers of social distinction that may have no innate significance, but, nevertheless, spread to various aspects of our lives and be the root of conflict. The basis of such conflicts could arise from the use of race to form conditional judgments about people's behavior. Moreover, there are contexts where racial conflict is inevitable even though, if individuals had common knowledge of one another's preferences, there would be no conflict. It is argued that this kind of conflict, where many individuals have no innate aggressive preference, is widespread and understanding the process that gives rise to such conflict is the key to crafting effective policy that contains it.     

Effect of correlation on the estimation of a mean in the presence of spurious observations

This paper examines the effect of correlation of observations on estimators of a mean which are designed to guard against the possibility of spurious observations (that is, observations generated in a manner not intended). The mean squared error, premium and protection of these estimators are evaluated and discussed for some specific correlation structures.     

Rate of consistency of one sample tests of location

Let X₁,…,X_n be a sample from a population with continuous distribution function F(x?θ) such that F(x)+F(-x)=1 and 0<F(x)<1, x?R¹. It is shown that the power- function of a monotone test of H: θ=θ₀ against K: θ>θ₀ cannot tend to 1 as θ?θ₀ → ∞ more than n times faster than the tails of F tend to 0. Some standard as well as robust tests are considered with respect to this rate of convergence.     

Generators for asymmetrical factorial experiments

The paper lists generators for asymmetrical factorial experiments consisting of 200 or fewer treatment combinations and up to 7 factors each having 7 or fewer levels. The generators define fractional or confounded single replicate factorial designs.     

重庆公路交通"十五"发展战略

在西部大开发中,交通建设尤其是公路交通建设在重庆的地位远甚于其它省市.山地为主,江河纵横等恶劣的自然条件及相对落后的社会经济状况极大地制约了重庆的公路建设,重庆现有公路交通状况制约了经济的发展.在规划中应增加总量,提高质量;建设重庆主枢纽,建设以"两环十射"为主的骨干交通网络,连通周边各省市;建设各区县与骨干交通网络间的连接道;建设各区县下伸到乡镇的公路,尤其是扶贫和移民公路.应采取有效的措施来推动公路建设.     

The exact D-optimal first order saturated design with 17 observations

The exact D-optimal first order saturated design with 17 observations is given. The upper bound of the determinant of the information matrix is established and a design attaining this value is constructed. The information matrix is proved to be unique and the optimal design contains the B.I.B. design (16, 16, 6, 6, 2).     

On random grouping in goodness of fit tests of discrete distributions

We consider the problem of random grouping of data from discrete distributions to form χ² goodness of fit tests. In general the random partitions need not converge to the partition one gets using the true distribution function and the same partitioning scheme. We present a method of guaranteeing the convergence of the random partition and yielding the usual χ² asymptotics.