Premarital Cohabitation and Marital Dissolution: An Examination of Recent Marriages

An ongoing question remains for family researchers: Why does a positive association between cohabitation and marital dissolution exist when one of the primary reasons to cohabit is to test relationship compatibility? Drawing on recently collected data from the 2006–2008 National Survey of Family Growth, the authors examined whether premarital cohabitation experiences were associated with marital instability among a recent contemporary (married since 1996) marriage cohort of men (N = 1,483) and women (N = 2,003). They found that a dichotomous indicator of premarital cohabitation was in fact not associated with marital instability among women and men. Furthermore, among cohabitors, marital commitment prior to cohabitation (engagement or definite plans for marriage) was tied to lower hazards of marital instability among women, but not men. This research contributes to our understanding of cohabitation, marital instability, and broader family change.     

论青年女性流动人口初育间隔与人口控制——来自厦门流动人口家庭问卷调查的启示

青年女性流动人口实际生育行为的控制对于人口规模与结构的控制,起着至关重要的作用。而生育时间的选择作为影响流动人口生育实践的一个重要因素,体现在对各孩次生育间隔的控制上。本文在描述分析的基础上,应用Cox比例风险模型,主要对厦门市青年女性流动人口初育间隔的影响因素进行估计和检验,并在总结分析的基础上对流动人口控制问题提出几点对策思考。     

城市较高收入群体生育意愿偏高的现象及其理论解释——基于上海的调查

本文通过在上海市闵行区的实地调查结果,同时结合其他研究文献和社会新闻报道的资料,对发达地区较高收入者生育意愿偏高的现象及其特征进行了总结．并利用伊斯特林相对期群假说对这一现象产生的原因进行了理论分析。     

Presence and process of fear of birth during pregnancy—Findings from a longitudinal cohort study

Background

The prevalence of fear of birth has been estimated between 8–30%, but there is considerable heterogeneity in research design, definitions, measurement tools used and populations. There are some inconclusive findings about the stability of childbirth fear.

The Diffusion of Tolerance: Birth Cohort Changes in the Effects of Education and Income on Political Tolerance

Political tolerance—the willingness to extend civil liberties to traditionally stigmatized groups—is pivotal to the functioning of democracy and the well‐being of members of stigmatized groups. Although political tolerance has traditionally been more common among American elites, we argue that as tolerance has increased, it has also diffused to less educated and less affluent segments of the population. The relative stability of political attitudes over the life course and the socialization of more recent birth cohorts in contexts of increased tolerance suggest that this diffusion of tolerance occurs across birth cohorts rather than time periods. Using age‐period‐cohort models and more than three and a half decades of repeated cross‐sectional survey data, we find persistent and robust across‐cohort declines in the importance of both income and higher education in determining levels of political tolerance. Declines in the effects of socioeconomic status are evident with tolerance toward all five out‐groups in the analysis—anti‐religionists, gays and lesbians, communists, militarists, and racists—but to varying degrees. These findings fit with a model of changes in public opinion, particularly views of civil and political rights, through processes of cultural diffusion and cohort replacement.     

中国大陆婚姻状况变迁及婚姻挤压问题分析

本文以2005年全国1％人口抽样调查数据为基础,通过城乡之间的比较,借助对婚姻挤压以及中国大龄未婚人口现象的系统描述来揭示其存在的特征和后果。婚姻挤压和大龄未婚现象既与个人因素有关,同样受到社会结构变迁的影响,不仅在性别上有所差异,城乡之间也存在较大差别,农村未婚女青年的比例较低,最多的大龄未婚女青年集中在城市。而婚姻迁移和社会对于男女两性的期望不同将会对新的婚姻挤压问题造成进一步的冲击。     

中国老年人虚弱指数与死亡风险及队列差异

利用中国老年人健康长寿影响因素调查（ CLHLS ）2002－2011年跟踪调查数据,通过多种健康指标构建中国老年人虚弱指数,运用增长曲线模型和Cox等比例风险函数的研究方法,对中国老年人虚弱指数和死亡风险及其队列差异进行了深入分析。研究发现,女性虚弱指数比男性高,增长速度也比男性快,但是死亡风险比男性低;出生较晚的队列与出生早的队列相比,虚弱指数会更高,他们的增长程度更快;受教育程度高的老年人虚弱指数低,但是其增长速度却比受教育程度低的老年人要高。     

The limited effect of increasing educational attainment on childlessness trends in twentieth-century Europe,women born 1916–65

During the twentieth century, trends in childlessness varied strongly across European countries while educational attainment grew continuously across them. Using census and large-scale survey data from 13 European countries, we investigated the relationship between these two factors among women born between 1916 and 1965. Up to the 1940 birth cohort, the share of women childless at age 40+ decreased universally. Afterwards, the trends diverged across countries. The results suggest that the overall trends were related mainly to changing rates of childlessness within educational groups and only marginally to changes in the educational composition of the population. Over time, childlessness levels of the medium-educated and high-educated became closer to those of the low-educated, but the difference in level between the two better educated groups remained stable in Western and Southern Europe and increased slightly in the East.     

出生性别比综合治理:有所为,有所不为

从1980年我国出生性别比越过正常值域至今,党和各级政府制订了种种措施进行综合治理,但取得的成效甚微。这一时期我国治理工作的特点有:重视禁止性法律法规的制定,但与之相配套的规章制度比较缺乏;重视目标任务的提出,但落实目标的措施比较缺乏;部门性、专项性规章制度较多,综合性规章制度比较缺乏。今后一段时期内综合治理工作,可以按照避实就虚、避难就易的原则,在大力发展社会经济、建立健全社会养老制度、相关法律法规的制定与完善、加大对两非行为的打击力度等方面有所作为;而在人口生育政策的调整、传统文化的改变等方面有所不为。     

提高深圳出生人口素质的理论与思考

本文通过全面回顾深圳市在提高出生人口素质，预防出生缺陷方面的机构设置、工作方法，分析了深圳提高出生人口素质面临的挑战．并从政策分析的角度提出了提高出生人口素质的政策建议。