No mood effects in the field: The case of car inspections

We study mood effect in the field to measure its economic impact and address shortcomings in the existing literature, which typically uses one single mood proxy and ignores selection effects. Using over 50 million car inspections in Sweden and England and multiple mood proxies, we study whether car inspectors are more lenient on good mood days and if car owners self-select into those days. We find evidence of a “Friday effect” in England and a small selection bias, but no support for consistent mood effect. Our findings highlight the importance of considering the expectations of rational actors who may exploit mood effect and the need to study mood in the field using different settings and multiple proxies to avoid hasty conclusions.     

‘Born this Way’? Prenatal exposure to testosterone may determine behavior in competition and conflict

Fetal exposure to sex hormones can have long lasting effects on human behavior. The second-to-fourth digit ratio (DR) is considered a putative marker for prenatal exposure to testosterone (vs estrogens), with higher exposure resulting in lower DR. Even though testosterone is theoretically related to competition, the role of DR in human behavior is debated; and in situations such as bilateral conflict is unknown. We investigate this through a laboratory experiment using a repeated 2-person Tullock contest played in fixed same-gender pairs. Based on a previously obtained large sample of student subjects, we selectively invited participants to the laboratory if their right-hand DR was in the top (High-DR) or bottom (Low-DR) tercile for their gender. Unbeknownst to the subjects, we performed a controlled match of the DR types (Low-Low, Low-High, High-High). This novel methodology allows us to analyze the causal effect of DR on behavior for the first time in the literature. We find that Low-DR (vs High-DR) males compete more aggressively regardless of the counterpart’s type. For females’ conflict behavior, the counterpart’s type matters more than the decision-maker’s type: Low-DRs are non-significantly more aggressive but every-one is more aggressive against High-DRs. Limitations due to sample size are discussed.     

Financial liberalization and long-run stability of money demand in Nigeria

A stable money demand function is essential when using monetary aggregate as a monetary policy. Thus, there is need to examine the stability of the money demand function in Nigeria after the deregulation of the financial sector. To achieve this, the study employed CUSUM (cumulative sum) and CUSUMSQ (CUSUM of square) tests after using autoregressive distributive lag bounds test to determine the existence of a long run relationship between monetary aggregates and their determinants. Results of the study show that a long-run relationship holds and that the demand for money is stable in Nigeria. In addition, the inflation rate is found to be a better proxy for an opportunity variable when compared to interest rate. The main implication of the study is that interest rate is ineffective as a monetary policy instrument in Nigeria.     

Impact of technology-intensive exports on GDP of Western Balkan Countries

This paper aims to determine, by means of regression analysis, which exported product groups, categorized according to their technological intensity, have the greatest effect on the movements in the volume of GDP p/c of the Western Balkan Countries (WBCs). The analysis, based on statistical-econometric methodology, includes 16 commodity groups per each WBC (Albania; Bosnia and Herzegovina; Croatia; FYR Macedonia; Montenegro; Serbia). The data were collected and presented in accordance with the HS4 system classification, which is also used for development of the ITC’s Trade Map. The results of the analysis show that those commodity groups produced by medium-low and low technology industries have the greatest effect on the change in the volume of GDP p/c in all WBCs in the period 2005–2015.     

Market economies and pro-social behavior: Experimental evidence from Central Asia

This study seeks to extend the body of knowledge of pro-social behavior in comparative market settings by reporting on a high-stakes ultimatum game and revelation game experiments in two transition economies: Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. While controlling for cultural differences and framing effects, we find statistically significant differences in fairness and honesty behavior between the two countries. Specifically, subjects in Uzbekistan (in an earlier stage of transition to a market economy) are fairer and more honest than their later-stage Kazakh counterparts. Our experimental findings have implications for the literature on pro-social behavior and market economies, and more generally, on the transmission process between formal and informal institutions.     

The debt trap: A two-compartment train wreck… and how to avoid it

We explore sustainable paths out of a debt trap with a highly stylized two-sector differential equations model for the stocks of money in Government and Society. The model fits the data for the U.S. between 1981 and 2012 with a coefficient of correlation of 0.996. The solutions provide detailed “escape conditions” from the debt trap. A primary surplus is required. Then a government can escape its debt trap either through sustained annual monetary outflows from society to the government (taxation) but with a low initial growth rate, or through annual monetary inflows into both sectors (stimulus) with higher initial growth rate. We illustrate the use of our model with simulations which show how five indebted countries can escape their debt trap in 30 (or 70) years.     

A comparison of approaches for estimating the effect of women's education on the probability of using modern contraceptive methods in Malawi

The aim of this study is to estimate the effect of education on the probability of married Malawian women using modern contraceptive methods by accounting for both observed and unobserved confounders. We conduct a sensitivity analysis and compare the results of naive models with instrumental variable models to account for the potential endogeneity of education. Our findings demonstrate conflicting results between the two modelling approaches. The naive models report smaller education effects on the probability of using modern contraceptive methods compared to instrumental variable models. We also find that by relaxing the functional form assumption on the effect of continuous covariates, using a flexible instrumental variable model, the education's effect follows a positive, nonlinear pattern. This finding is not observed with a classic instrumental variable model.     

Citizenship and Labor Market Position: Turkish Immigrants in Germany and the Netherlands1

The relation between citizenship and labor market position is complex. Besides a causal impact from citizenship towards labor market position, several selection mechanisms may cause particular immigrants to choose for naturalization. We investigate the empirical relation on the basis of German and Dutch survey data. For the Netherlands we find a positive relation between citizenship and labor market position, while for Germany we find mixed results as citizenship is negatively related to tenured employment. The contrasting results may be explained by institutional differences. In Germany, economic self-reliance is more strictly required for naturalization than in the Netherlands. This may lead to a stronger incentive to naturalize for workers with a temporary contract in Germany.     

Less cheating? The effects of prefilled forms on compliance behavior

As a consequence of digital transformation, individuals are often confronted with prefilled forms or prefilled data entry masks. In situations where cheating and lying are of concern, prefilling might reduce dishonest behavior. In a controlled experiment, we investigate how correctly and incorrectly prefilled forms influence compliance behavior. We frame our experiment as filing the annual income tax return. We show that correct prefilling enhances compliance. However, in cases of incorrect prefilling, we observe asymmetric effects. If prefilled income is lower than true income, we find no positive compliance effect, and compliance is on the same level as with blank forms. If prefilled income is higher than true income, prefilling still has a positive effect on compliance. In that case, compliance is on the same level as with correctly prefilled forms and higher than with blank forms. Our study contributes to the literature on cheating and lying by showing that prefilled forms affect compliance.