The arithmetic of outcome editing in financial and social domains

Outcome editing refers to a set of mental rules that people apply when deciding whether to evaluate multiple outcomes jointly or separately, which subsequently affects choice. In a large-scale online survey (n = 2062) we investigate whether individuals use the same outcome editing rules for financial outcomes (e.g., a lottery win) and social outcomes (e.g., a party with friends). We also test the role of numeric ability in explaining outcome editing. Our results show that people’s preferences for combining or separating events depend on whether those events are in the financial or the social domain. Specifically, individuals were more likely to segregate social outcomes than monetary outcomes, except for when all outcomes were negative. Moreover, numeric ability was associated with preferences for outcome editing in the financial domain but not in the social domain. Our findings extend the understanding of the arithmetic operations underlying outcome editing and suggest that people rely more on calculations when making choices involving multiple financial outcomes and more on feelings when making choices involving social outcomes.     

Replication: Framing effects in intertemporal choice with children

This paper investigates the effects of framing in intertemporal choice by elementary school children. Sutter, Yilmaz, and Oberauer (2015) recently demonstrated that intertemporal choice in children is malleable with respect to simple defaults. Using a similar approach, we replicated their study. We also found that children are more willing to select the immediate option in (standard) control frames than in alternative ones that appear to promote delay of gratification. This finding is consistent with previous experiments on children as well as adults and may have implications for cultivating the ability to delay gratification in individuals.     

Cognitive abilities,self-efficacy,and financial behavior

This paper investigates the effect of cognitive abilities on financial behavior among older adults. Using the U.S. Health and Retirement Study, I find that cognitive abilities significantly affect financial behavior through two channels: ability and self-efficacy. People with higher cognition scores achieve better financial outcomes. This positive association is especially strong in tasks having high demand of cognitive abilities, which confirms the ability channel of the cognitive ability effect. In addition, there is evidence for the self-efficacy channel as a secondary source of cognitive influence. Lower cognitive abilities decrease people’s sense of self-efficacy, which, in turn, significantly decreases financial management efficiency. The findings have important policy implications, specifically that more effort is needed to assist the growing older population through the cognitive aging process and that noncognitive skills, as a secondary source of influence, also warrant attention.     

Effects of urbanization on trust: Evidence from an experiment in the field

I conducted a trust game in the field within a natural experiment paradigm to test the effects of urbanization on both in- and out-group trust. I found that urbanization has a larger positive effect on out-group trust than on in-group trust. My findings provide new knowledge to the literature on the intricacy of the urbanization-trust relationship and contribute to the ongoing discourse on the different foundations underpinning in-group and out-group trust.     

Demonstration of power: Experimental results on bilateral bargaining

We test the empirical effectiveness of two theoretical proposals to equilibrate bargaining power in bilateral bargaining. Our experimental design is based on the two-player versions of the multibidding game (Pérez-Castrillo & Wettstein, 2001) and the bid-and-propose game (Navarro & Perea, 2005). Both models build on the ultimatum game and balance parties’ bargaining power by auctioning the role of the proposer in the first stage. We find that proposers learn how to send an acceptable proposal by trial and error, guided by responders’ rejections. The observed behavior stabilizes for the final experimental rounds and the payoff gap between the proposer and the responder seems to close down. However, the strategies chosen by subjects are remarkably different from the theoretical ones.     

Simple inference in multinomial and ordered logit

This paper provides some simple methods of interpreting the coefficients in multinomial logit and ordered logit models. These methods are summarized in Propositions concerning the magnitudes, signs, and patterns of partial derivatives of the outcome probabilities with respect to the exogenousvariables. The paper also provides an empirical example illustrating the use of these Propositions.     

依法遏制婚外恋论略

当前,我国每年约有40万个家庭解体,其主要原因就是婚外恋。本文简要分析了婚外恋的特点、原因及其后果,着重阐述了遏制婚外恋的措施,以保护妇女、儿童的合法权益,净化社会风气。     

The role of reciprocation in social network formation,with an application to LiveJournal

This paper deals with the role of reciprocation in the formation of individuals’ social networks. We follow the activity of a panel of bloggers over more than a year and investigate the extent to which initiating a relation brings about its reciprocation. We adapt a standard capital investment model to study how reciprocation affects the build-up of the individual social capital of bloggers, as measured by their links and interactions with others. This allows us to measure the role of content production and relationship building in the dynamics of online social networks and to distinguish between the social networking and media aspects of blogging.     

中国抗战初期格鲁对美国远东政策的主张评析

1937年7月至12月,美国驻日大使格鲁力主继续保持中立静观的消极政策。这种主张并非是一味的消极退让的产物,而与格鲁对远东形势发展的预估和设想有很大关联。在他看来,只要能合理利用外交技巧,就可能同时兼顾美日关系、美国在远东的实际利益和其所坚持的原则,实现美国利益的最大化。这种机会主义的设想反映了格鲁的外交观和他对美国远东利益的认知,代表了20世纪30年代美国政府人士在远东外交问题上的一种思路。     

进出口商如何应对UCP600

UCP600相对于UCP500,在内容上作了大量实质性的修改。进出口商掌握信用证业务操作中的最新变化,对进一步促进我国贸易的发展有着重大的意义。在对UCP500和UCP600不同点分析的基础上,对进口商和出口商在信用证的运作的具体过程中的每一个环节应如何应对UCP600的变化提出了相应的建议。