政府偏好与制度起源:以1950年代后的收容遣送政策为例

尽管学术文献里没有给出政府偏好的恰当定义,但它的确是解释中国制度变迁中的一个重要变量。运用制度学派的有关制度变迁理论,对收容遣送制度起源的历史作出政治学的解释,可以认为,巩固政权以及与此相联系的城市化与工业化的双重压力,都对政府治理城市秩序的偏好产生了重大影响。1950年代以后的收容遣送政策及其实践,为考察政府偏好与制度设计之间的关联提供了生动的素材。     

气候变化政治对海湾国家的影响

海湾地区气候炎热,淡水资源缺乏。长期以来,海湾国家主要依靠能源出口获取大量资金,借此修建海水淡化工厂等各种设施以适应和改善气候环境的影响。近年来,国际社会在应对全球变暖问题的协调合作中,已形成一种处理全球气候变化的政治。气候变化政治要求各国减少能源消耗和降低二氧化碳排放量以缓解全球变暖趋势,从而对海湾国家以能源出口收益来维护生存环境和社会稳定的基本经济模式构成冲击。面对气候变化政治带来的冲击,海湾国家目前的权宜选择只能是继续扩大能源出口,并尽量拖延实施气候变化协议来进行应对。然而,这种做法虽可以暂时保持海湾国家改善环境的努力和维护其经济政治结构稳定,但却难以消除全球气候变化政治今后长期推动能源结构调整和节能减排所带来的压力。     

Malaria in Pacific populations: seen but not heard?

Most Pacific Island countries are located in the tropics, where there is an abundance of mosquitoes with the potential to carry debilitating or life-threatening vector-borne diseases. This article examines three Melanesian countries in which malaria is endemic—Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands and Vanuatu—but the threat posed by the spread of malaria gives the issues a broader significance to the Pacific region. After discussing the spatial distribution and prevalence of malaria in the Pacific, the article examines a number of health interventions through which people have sought to control malaria. Although the disease was nearly eradicated in the Pacific in the 1970s, it is no longer in retreat. The article concludes by examining why there are still grounds for cautious optimism, and the challenges that Pacific Island countries face in reducing the impact of malaria on their populations. There is a need for prompt and concerted action on malaria at the national, regional and international levels if the public health concerns arising from the disease are to be adequately addressed.     

Monotonic change point estimation of generalized linear model-based regression profiles

In this article, a maximum likelihood estimator is derived in the generalized linear model-based regression profiles under monotonic change in Phase II. The performance of the proposed estimator is comprehensively investigated through some special cases, and compared with estimators under step change and drift. The results show that the proposed estimator has better performance in small and medium shifts under different increasing changes. Finally, the applicability of the proposed estimator is illustrated using a real case.     

Likelihood procedure for testing changes in skew normal model with applications to stock returns

The skew normal distribution family is an attractive distribution family due to its mathematical tractability and inclusion of the normal distribution as the special case. It has wide applications in many applied fields such as finance, economics, and medical research. Such a distribution family has been studied extensively since it was introduced by Azzalini in 1985 Azzalini, A. (1985). A class of distributions which includes the normal ones. Scandinavian Journal of Statistics 12:171–178. [Google Scholar] for the first time. Yet, few work has been done on the study of change point problem related to this distribution family. In this article, we propose the likelihood ratio test (LRT) to detect changes in the parameters of the skew normal distribution associated with some asymptotic results of the test statistic. Simulations have been conducted under different scenarios to investigate the performance of the proposed method. Comparisons to some other existing method indicate the comparable power of the method in detecting changes in parameters of the skew normal distribution model. Applications on two real data: Brazilian and Tanzanian stock returns illustrate the detection procedure.     

Competing Values Framework: A useful tool to define the predominant culture in a maternity setting in Australia

Objective

To identify the predominant culture of an organisation which could then assess readiness for change.

Presence and process of fear of birth during pregnancy—Findings from a longitudinal cohort study

Background

The prevalence of fear of birth has been estimated between 8–30%, but there is considerable heterogeneity in research design, definitions, measurement tools used and populations. There are some inconclusive findings about the stability of childbirth fear.

How Can Low‐income Countries Gain from a Framework Agreement on Climate Change? An Analysis with Integrated Assessment Modelling

By using the integrated assessment model RICE this article carries out a scenario analysis with different assumptions about international negotiations on climate change, in particular hypothesising about reduction in targets for greenhouse gas emissions, technology transfers and financial transfer programmes. It finds that, in terms of growth, developing countries and in particular sub‐Saharan Africa will benefit from agreements that reduce the level of pollution and promote technological diffusion. Moreover, when developed countries are subject to emissions limits and poor regions have no such commitments, financial transfers from rich to developing countries for adaptation and mitigation enhance pro‐poor growth and help the effectiveness of poor countries in reducing emissions.     

湄公河名称的含义及其所反映的民族历史变迁

湄公河这个名称是从英文MekongRiver一名音译过来的,而英文Mekong这个名称又是从傣泰语民族对这条河流的称呼MaeNamKhong这个名称演变过来的。如果按照傣泰语的发音来音译的话,MaeNamKhong应该译为“湄南公”。在傣泰语言中,“湄南”是河的意思,而“公(”Khong)这个词,则是从Krom或Khom这个词演变而来的。Krom或Khom是泰国的泰族和其他一些傣泰语民族对孟高棉语民族的一个泛称。因此,“湄南公”是湄公河的名称的含义,就是“孟高棉语民族的河”。作者认为,傣泰语民族把流经他们土地的这条河流叫做“孟高棉语民族的河”的原因在于:这个名称反映了一段湄公河流域民族变迁的历史,即孟高棉语民族是该流域的土著居民,至少是比傣泰民族要早的当地居民,而傣泰民族则是后来才迁到该河流域的民族。虽然孟高棉语民族和傣泰语民族在该流域的分布空间已发生了根本的置换,但湄公河这条河流的名称却为我们留下了一条反映这种民族历史变迁的重要线索。     

广西北部湾港集装箱运输发展研究

广西北部湾港集装箱运输区域空间布局已得到进一步优化,表现为集装箱运输分工态势显现以及环北部湾港口集装箱运输格局发生的变化。这种优化得益于钦、防、北三港的整合,政府的政策推动以及路港之间的共同协作。而"一带一路"、中国东盟合作和大规模铁路建设也为北部湾港集装箱运输发展带来了新的机遇。尽管如此,北部湾港集装箱运输却仍然存在着进驻班轮公司少、港口装卸效率低和口岸服务效率不高等问题,并且面临着来自于自腹地内综合运输网络和环北部湾其他港口的挑战。因此,北部湾港集装箱运输应加速打造区域性集装箱枢纽港,加强营销并科学组织货源,大力开展"散改集"业务,加强与国际大型班轮公司的合作,加快中转业务的发展。