规模以下工业抽样设计研究

为推动规模以下工业抽样调查工作以及解决当前调查面临的有关问题,本文对抽样设计进行了改进研究。首先,本文对规模以下工业抽样设计演变过程进行系统梳理,总结了现行抽样设计充分利用双重抽样框设计和综合运用三种抽样方法的特点。其次,针对园区层企业密度高的特点,探索结合园区因素改进地域抽样设计,对园区层和非园区层分别抽样,解决调查中面临的非抽样误差问题,并调整辅助变量使其与核心指标相关性均较高,确保抽样推断精度,有效提高抽样调查效率。并以我国东 部某省为例进行实证模拟得到结合园区因素抽样设计对调查工作改进的结论。再次,针对我国各级政府管理需要以及局队业务分工优化调整情况,介绍了规模以下工业样本追加理论和实证应用的主要研究成果。最后,在大数据时代数据来源广泛的背景下,本文在多重抽样框设计以及利用辅助变量提升样本轮换推断精度方面提出了进一步改进抽样设计的思路。     

The Impact of Geographic Proximity on What to Buy,How to Buy,and Where to Buy: Evidence from High‐Tech Durable Goods Market*

Social contagion effects due to geographical proximity refer to the social effects wherein the behavior of an individual varies with the behavior of other individuals who are geographically close. Although the influence of such effects on consumer choices has been established in several contexts, much of the extant studies have focused on its effect on consumers’ decision of whether to buy a new product or adopt a new innovation. There has been no systematic examination of the influence of geographic proximity on other aspects of consumers’ product buying process such as what to buy (i.e., brand choice), how to buy (i.e., the channel), and where to buy (i.e., retailers). Such effects can matter significantly in high‐technology and durable goods markets and therefore, it is critical to understand the scope of these on consumers’ choice of retailers and channel as well. Drawing on literatures from word of mouth effects, ecommerce, and consumers’ perception of risk in their purchase process, we develop a set of hypotheses on the effect of geographic proximity on consumers’ choices of what to buy, how to buy, and where to buy. Leveraging a microlevel dataset of purchases of personal computers, we develop brand‐, retailer‐, and channel‐related measures of proximity effects at the individual consumer level and estimate a joint disaggregate model of the three choices that make up a product purchase process to test these hypotheses. Our results indicate a significant contagion effect on each of the three choices. Furthermore, we find evidence of a greater effect of geographic proximity on inexperienced consumers—those who are new to the product category. Our results thus help develop a holistic understanding of the influence of social contagion effects on consumers’ decision making.     

Retrospective Reporting of Household Wealth: Evidence From the 1983–1989 Survey of Consumer Finances

One way to obtain panel-like information on household wealth is to ask households about changes in their asset holdings. Yet the reliability of retrospective data is unclear, considering the potential for recall error. This article examines the reliability of retrospective reporting, using data from the 1983–1989 Survey of Consumer Finances. We find substantial inconsistencies between reported net investments in assets with measured changes in holdings. Inconsistencies are less severe for salient transactions like home sales and more severe for aggregated items like financial assets.     

消费者行为经济控制论模型

居民消费是国内需求的重要组成部分,居民的消费行为对一国的经济增长具有重要的意义.1997年至2002年间中国经济增长放缓,在很大程度上受到居民消费下降的影响.因此,在实行积极的财政政策的时候要充分研究、了解消费者的行为特征,才能取得良好的效果.从影响消费者行为的关键因素展开,以经济控制论为工具,研究了消费者的行为模式,动态地描述了消费、储蓄和收入之间的关系,并对如何刺激中国国内消费提出了政策性的建议.     

What Are the Sources of Exposure to Eight Frequently Used Phthalic Acid Esters in Europeans?

Phthalic acid esters (phthalates) are used as plasticizers in numerous consumer products, commodities, and building materials. Consequently, phthalates are found in human residential and occupational environments in high concentrations, both in air and in dust. Phthalates are also ubiquitous food and environmental contaminants. An increasing number of studies sampling human urine reveal the ubiquitous phthalate exposure of consumers in industrialized countries. At the same time, recent toxicological studies have demonstrated the potential of the most important phthalates to disturb the human hormonal system and human sexual development and reproduction. Additionally, phthalates are suspected to trigger asthma and dermal diseases in children. To find the important sources of phthalates in Europeans, a scenario-based approach is applied here. Scenarios representing realistic exposure situations are generated to calculate the age-specific range in daily consumer exposure to eight phthalates. The scenarios demonstrate that exposure of infant and adult consumers is caused by different sources in many cases. Infant consumers experience significantly higher daily exposure to phthalates in relation to their body weight than older consumers. The use of consumer products and different indoor sources dominate the exposure to dimethyl, diethyl, benzylbutyl, diisononyl, and diisodecyl phthalates, whereas food has a major influence on the exposure to diisobutyl, dibutyl, and di-2-ethylhexyl phthalates. The scenario-based approach chosen in the present study provides a link between the knowledge on emission sources of phthalates and the concentrations of phthalate metabolites found in human urine.     

论消费社会中产品的编码解码

在消费社会中，消费行为更倾向于象征性活动。正是通过对产品进行编码和解码，使符号发生作用，内在的文化价值意义显现，人们的种种消费需求才得以实现。文章初探亍产品消费中关于符号产生和发生作用的基本过程，尝试在复杂的表象中对其做简洁明了的解释。     

关于低价倾销的理论认识

低价倾销在有关法规中的界定是清楚和明确的 ,但如何正确理解和认识并不简单。那种认为低价倾销在中国经济中是一种普遍现象的看法值得商榷。经营者所处的市场环境以及供求关系等在界定低价倾销行为时都是必须考虑的。政府反低价倾销具有复杂性     

拉动经济增长的新兴消费产业研究——以老龄产业为例

中国三十年来的经济发展表明,在拉动中国经济增长的三种动力中对外出口会随国际形势的变化而呈现出不确定性与不可控性,政府投资仅仅是出口与消费受阻时所采取的权宜之计,具有波动性、滞后性特征,而基于消费需求尤其是老年消费需求基础上发展起来的老龄产业具有较高的稳定性和持久性,它能够促进生产力的持续发展,为国民经济的发展提供持久动力。所以,要从扩大消费内需入手,就必需大力发展以物质和服务消费为导向的老龄消费产业,使之成为推动中国经济发展的战略选择与重要增长极。     

内蒙古城乡居民生活水平定量研究

本研究旨在得出指导内蒙古各盟、市消费支出的有效途径,应用恩格尔系数及其评价标准,通过内蒙古12个地区农村及城镇居民时间序列数据,分析了食品支出在居民支出的比例,得出了这12个盟(市)的食品支出结构排序,在此基础上分析了影响内蒙古自治区居民恩格尔系数的因素,提出促进内蒙古各盟、市居民食品支出的健康发展途径.     

绿色营销发展现状及国内绿色营销的发展途径

随着全球环保运动的发展 ,绿色营销在国外逐渐推广。本文提出了绿色营销的四力模型 ,从消费者、企业、政府、环保非政府组织四个方面比较了国内外绿色营销的状况 ,分析了国内绿色营销的问题 ,并提出了促进国内绿色营销的途径。本文认为国外绿色营销的主要力量是消费者的拉动力 ,而国内绿色营销应该以部分“深绿色”企业为主要推动力