我国能源强度变化的影响因素分析及其实证研究

以1990-2008年能源强度统计数据为样本,利用脉冲响应函数与方差分解模型,对能源强度变化影响因素的动态作用特征及其影响效果进行了研究。实证结果表明：能源强度自身与第二产业比重对能源强度影响程度较大,能源价格变动与技术进步也对能源强度有一定影响,影响因素共同通过内在联结关系与相互作用机制,能够对提高能源效率起到积极作用。     

Understanding changes in Māori incomes and income inequality 1997–2003

This paper examines recent changes in weekly income levels and dispersion for Māori, New Zealand’s indigenous ethnic group. Changes in the Māori income distribution between 1997 and 2003 reflect rapid increases in economic growth and employment rate. A reduced proportion of people had zero or benefit-level incomes and a higher proportion had high incomes. Income inequality declined for working-aged Māori and was stable for employed Māori. The average income gap between Māori and Europeans declined. The increased Māori employment rate during this period was the single most important driver of changes in the Māori income distribution.

Work experience as a source of specification error in earnings models: implications for gender wage decompositions

This paper models the bias from using potential vs actual experience in log wage models. The nature of the problem is best viewed as specification error as opposed to classical errors-in-variables. We correct for the discrepancy between potential and actual work experience and create a predicted measure of work experience. We use the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth and the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and extend our findings to the Integrated Public Use Microdata Sample. Our results suggest that potential experience biases the effects of schooling and the rates of return to labor market experience. Using such a measure in earnings models underestimates the explained portion of the male–female wage gap. We are able to separately identify the decomposition biases associated with incorrect experience measures and biased parameter estimates.      

在解构中重建——转型期文学话题:道德论

社会转型期,一切旧的观念、秩序、原则因发生变异而解构,以致造成一种文化陆沉与迷失现象,这是文学危机信号.本文从当前商业主义对文学道德观念的影响并产生滑坡这一问题出发,从市场经济、文化背景、价值演变、文学转型、审美流变等角度,对转型期文学价值内涵、道德观念、思想信仰、审美追求变化的原因表现出一种理性思考,进而提出,在世纪之交的关口,文学理应建立一种全面面向新世纪的新的思想价值体系和道德规范.破毁与解构并不可怕,重要的是重建.只有渗透了丰富的历史文化内涵的人文精神被熔进创作,进而又与当代中国社会主义文艺总的价值原则结合起来,才能在现实的高度、历史的深度和审美的力度上重建精神,完成道德建构.     

中国居民最终需求的碳排放测算

 居民最终需求已成为我国碳排放量增长的重要原因。为了测算我国居民因最终需求而直接和间接排放的碳,本文以1992-2007年价值型投入产出表为基础,结合能源消费实物量数据,编制出混合单位的能源投入产出表,从而得到居民碳间接排放量占居民碳排总量70%以上且呈上升趋势的结论。在能源投入产出表的基础上,通过结构分解模型,对居民最终需求及相关经济活动引致的碳间接排放量进行分解分析,结果表明：居民最终需求总量、城乡消费比例及居民消费结构三个因素的变化是促进碳间接排放量增加的因素,以能源消耗系数下降为特征的生产技术进步是促使CO2间接排放量减少的主要因素。     

省际间财力差距的地区分解和结构分解

 本文以1997年～2005年全国31省级财政数据为样本,运用基尼系数和GE指数分解法对省级财力差异进行了分析,结果发现：1997年至2005年间我国省际间财力差距70%以上来源于地区内部,并且地区内部差距呈现扩大趋势;对省级收入来源基尼系数分解表明对财力差异贡献最大的是本级财政收入,总转移支付解释了财力差异的约40%,税收返还和专项转移支付是造成省际间差异的主要原因,唯一起到均等化作用的是农村税费改革转移支付,旨在均衡地区间财力差距的一般性转移支付并没有起到相应的作用。     

基于模态分解的Hilbert-Huang变换

Hilbert-Huang变换(HHT)是近年来发展起来的一种新的时频分析方法。本文首先阐述了基于经验模态分解(EMD)的Hilbert—Huang变换(HHT)的基本原理及英特点,然后将该方法用于实例,对比分析了HHT变换和传统的傅立叶变换的实验结杲,进而说明了该方法用于信号时频分析的可行性和优越性。     

SEPARATION, WEAK EXOGENEITY, AND P-T DECOMPOSITION IN COINTEGRATED VAR SYSTEMS WITH COMMON FEATURES

The aim of this paper is to study the concept of separability in multiple nonstationary time series displaying both common stochastic trends and common stochastic cycles. When modeling the dynamics of multiple time series for a panel of several entities such as countries, sectors, firms, imposing some form of separability and commonalities is often required to restrict the dimension of the parameter space. For this purpose we introduce the concept of common feature separation and investigate the relationships between separation in cointegration and separation in serial correlation common features. Loosely speaking we investigate whether a set of time series can be partitioned into subsets such that there are serial correlation common features within the sub-groups only. The paper investigates three issues. First, it provides conditions for separating joint cointegrating vectors into marginal cointegrating vectors as well as separating joint short-term dynamics into marginal short-term dynamics. Second, conditions for making permanent-transitory decompositions based on marginal systems are given. Third, issues of weak exogeneity are considered. Likelihood ratio type tests for the different hypotheses under study are proposed. An empirical analysis of the link between economic fluctuations in the United States and Canada shows the practical relevance of the approach proposed in this paper.     

中国代际收入传递趋势及教育在传递中的作用

本文利用中国健康营养调查（CHNS）数据,实证检验了出生于1949-1990年男性是否存在代际收入传递,并分析了其变化趋势和教育在代际收入传递中的作用机制。估计结果表明,1949- 1990年代际收入传递程度总体上不断加强,其中60年代初期和80年代初期出现两次传递高峰。中等收入水平者受父辈的影响及加强趋势均最高,呈现双倒“U”特征。城镇传递加强趋势约是农村2倍,城镇高收入水平者受父辈的影响更强,农村则低收入水平者所受影响更强。对教育作用机制分解发现,教育对代际收入传递的解释程度在农村达到26%,城镇则达到36%。家庭环境导致的子女教育机会不平等是影响代际收入传递趋势变化的最主要原因。随着国民教育水平提高,在中国教育的作用也出现了”组合效应”特征。     

SVARMA模型的设定、方差分解分析和应用

本文首先研究了传统凯恩斯主义IS-LM-PC模型的SVARMA模型表示,为宏观经济计量分析建立SVARMA模型提供了模型设定依据;其次,建立了VARMA/SVARMA模型方差分解分析方法;另外,基于SVARMA模型对中国宏观经济政策的动态效应进行了实证分析,实证分析发现（1）SVARMA模型与SVAR模型的分析结果存在重要的区别;（2）在政策实施6-7期前后,财政政策和货币政策对抑制通货膨胀的效果发生逆转;（3）宏观经济的价格水平存在粘性;（4）货币供给冲击对通货膨胀率的变化具有滞后的正向影响,对实际产出的影响不明显等。