对人口老龄化社会经济影响问题研究的回顾与分析

针对目前我国人口老龄化社会经济影响问题研究中的某些误区和概念、理论模糊的问题 ,通过对先前文献的简要回顾 ,从基本概念和理论上分析了这些问题的症结及其原因所在 ,并提出了解决这些问题的基本途径     

What is applied demography?

Applied demography has recently gained recognition as an emergent specialization among practicing demographers. We argue that applied demography is intrinsically distinct from basic demography because it exhibits the value-orientation and empirical characteristics of a decision-making science while the latter exhibits the value-orientation and empirical hallmarks of a basic science. Distinguishing characteristics of applied demography are based on the context in which it places precision and explanatory power relative to time and resources as well as the fact its substantive problems are largely exogenously-defined, usually by customers. The substantive problems of basic demography, on the other hand, are largely endogenously-defined, usually by academic demographers. Moreover, basic demography is primarily concerned with offering convincing explanations of demographic phenomena and tends to view time and resources as barriers to surmount in order to maximize precision and explanatory power. This context is very different from the one in which applied demography is embedded, which views explanatory power and precision in terms of doing what is necessary to support practical decision-making while minimizing time and resources. We examine this conceptualization of applied demography in terms of the methods and materials that fall within its purview and discuss some important consequences, including research agendas and training programs. We conclude by posing several important but unanswered questions about the actual and potential scope of applied demography and discuss some of the implications inherent in these questions.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the annual meeting of the Southern Demographic Association, 20 October 1995, Richmond, Virginia, USA.     

Markov Chain Monte Carlo Techniques for Studying Interoccasion and Intersubject Variability: Application to Pharmacokinetic Data

Values of pharmacokinetic parameters may seem to vary randomly between dosing occasions. An accurate explanation of the pharmacokinetic behaviour of a particular drug within a population therefore requires two major sources of variability to be accounted for, namely interoccasion variability and intersubject variability. A hierarchical model that recognizes these two sources of variation has been developed. Standard Bayesian techniques were applied to this statistical model, and a mathematical algorithm based on a Gibbs sampling strategy was derived. The accuracy of this algorithm's determination of the interoccasion and intersubject variation in pharmacokinetic parameters was evaluated from various population analyses of several sets of simulated data. A comparison of results from these analyses with those obtained from parallel maximum likelihood analyses (NONMEM) showed that, for simple problems, the outputs from the two algorithms agreed well, whereas for more complex situations the NONMEM approach may be less accurate. Statistical analyses of a multioccasion data set of pharmacokinetic measurements on the drug metoprolol (the measurements being of concentrations of drug in blood plasma from human subjects) revealed substantial interoccasion variability for all structural model parameters. For some parameters, interoccasion variability appears to be the primary source of pharmacokinetic variation.     

台湾人口性别结构的形成及发展变化

1949年前后大批大陆青壮年男性移民迁入台湾,导致台湾部分年龄组的人口性别结构严重失衡,给台湾的社会发展造成严重的后果,而人口的自然变动对缓解台湾过高的性别比起到重要的作用。     

人群死亡率的预测模型与分析

运用时间序列分析方法 ,建立了预测人群死亡率数学模型 ,并将该模型预测结果与文献所用数学模型得到的结果进行比较 ,经统计检验表明 :用时间序列分析方法建立的数学模型精度更高 ,计算量也大大减少 ,且无需考虑影响死亡率的各种相关因素 ,无需太多控制参数。     

南京人口迁移状况及原因分析

根据“五普”10％抽样调查统计数据,对南京20世纪90年代后期迁入现居住地人口的数量、速度、年龄、性别结构以及来源地、类别、迁移原因等进行了具体分析与评价,指出了大规模迁移人口对南京城市建设和经济社会发展可能产生的影响,提出了供政府及有关部门做相关决策时的参考建议。     

生物种群空间格局随机性的一个检验方法

以最近邻体法的调查为基础，提出一种检验生物种群空间格局随机性的方法，其理论基础是DeMoivre-Laplace中心的极限定理。     

民族地区人口现代人格的建构

人是社会发展的主导动力。人的现代化不仅是社会现代化的主要内容,也是其目的所在,而人格的现代转型无疑是人的现代化的核心。大力推进民族地区人口现代人格的培育和塑造,尽快建构起具有独立的个性品质、敢于挑战传统、勇于竞争等具有现代精神品质的民族地区人力资源,是当前推进民族地区现代化建设的一个关键所在。     

试析西北城市少数民族流动人口的结构特征——以对兰州市的调查为例

利用西园、西湖街道派出所的少数民族暂住人口统计数据,辅以288例偶遇式问卷调查,以兰州市为例,对西北城市少数民族流动人口的结构特征进行了分析.分析结果显示:西北城市少数民族流动人口以男性为主,性别比过高;年龄以青壮年为主;已婚者较多;有家庭化流动趋向;整体文化程度非常低,女性较男性更低.据此提出相关建议,以做好他们的服务与管理工作.