Generalization of Fisher's z-transformation

We deal with the asymptotic expansions of the means and the variances of the correlation coefficients in truncated bivariate normal populations. The Fisher's z-transformation is generalized for stabilizing variance in a truncated normal population. The Hermite moments are introduced, and the relationship among cross moments, central cross moments, and Hermite moments are discussed.     

X^2检验在社会学研究中的应用及其局限性讨论

χ2检验是一种非常有效的相关测量法,其通过对样本资料的检验来推断总体的相关性,在社会学研究中具有广泛的现实意义,但也存在局限性,对于较大规模的样本而言,通过χ2检验变量间存在"显著性"的相关性,就会变得没有太大意义.     

Nonparametric confidence and tolerance intervals from record values data

In a number of situations only observations that exceed or only those that fall below the current extreme value are recorded. Examples include meteorology, hydrology, athletic events and mining. Industrial stress testing is also an example in which only items that are weaker than all the observed items are destroyed. In this paper, it is shown that, how record values can be used to provide distribution-free confidence intervals for population quantiles and tolerance intervals. We provide some tables that help one choose the appropriate record values and present a numerical example. Also universal upper bounds for the expectation of the length of the confidence intervals are derived. The results may be of interest in situation where only record values are stored.     

阜阳市流动人口计划生育管理之我见

本文阐述了阜阳市流动人口计划生育管理的基本经验．     

人口素质与可持续发展

本文阐述了人口素质与可持续发展的关系     

Women's empowerment as a public problem: A case study of the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development

Using the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) as a case study, I examine how women's empowerment amassed public attention. I investigate feminist preparations for the conference and suggest that by playing an active role in preparatory meetings and the conference, women gained recognition from governments throughout the world and from the United Nations, and helped frame issues in a way that motivated the press to highlight women's empowerment. I argue empowering women became a catch phrase for media coverage and that abortion surfaced as a symbol of this empowerment. UN publications and reports of proceedings prior to, and during the 1994 ICPD, and articles from The New York Times illustrate use of this media package. The paper raises questions about types of policies governments will use to improve the position of women and the political power women will have in decisions.     

The impact of policy changes on forecasting for school districts

This paper describes a case study in which a professional demographic consulting team was brought in to aid in the development of a long-term building and reorganization plan for an Indiana school district. Just prior to the start of this process, a state-level policy was promulgated that changed the age of eligibility for entering kindergarten in such a manner that it temporarily produced the appearance of an increase in the number of kindergartners in districts throughout Indiana. For the district in question, a group of residents pointed to the apparent growth in the number of kindergartners as a reason not to close schools in their area. Having uncovered both the policy and its effect, the consultants produced an enrollment forecast that was not confounded by the artificial appearance of growth. This forecast showed much less growth than expected by the district's officials and residents, both of whom had been conditioned to expect future enrollment growth by not only the policy effect but by local media reports on the national Baby Boomlet, a phenomenon not actually occurring in their district. The demographers successfully defended their forecast in the face of strong initial disbelief as well as outright opposition by the residents. This experience tends to validate the argument made by others that the participation of professional demographers in an adversarial procedure can be beneficial in helping to formulate long-term plans.Paper presented at the Fifteenth Annual International Symposium on Forecasting, Toronto, Canada, 4–7 June 1995.     

关于人口统计调查方法体系存在的问题和改革设想

我国现行的人口统计调查方法体系是“以经常性的人口抽样调查为主体,以人口普查为基础,重点调查等为补充的多种方法的运用”,但随着经济社会的快速发展,“以普查为基础,经常性抽样调查为主体"的人口统计调查方法体系,与政府、社会对人口信息多层次、精细化、时效性的需求变得不适应,在实践中显露出矛盾和问题。本文以下将对当前人口普查和人口变动情况抽样调查,在人口统计中作用和存在问题做出分析,在此基础上提出人口统计的改革设想,并落实到具体的解决办法,以2020年第七次人口普查为契机,建立《人口统计与管理服务数据平台》,并结合社区网格化管理进行年度更新,取得年度全国、省级及省级以下的常住人口数据;同时改革人口抽样调查的内容,结合手机信令大数据在人口统计中的应用,完善人口统计调查方法体系。     

A powerful affine invariant test for multivariate normality based on interpoint distances of principal components

In this paper, a probability plots class of tests for multivariate normality is introduced. Based on independent standardized principal components of a d-variate normal data set, we obtained the sum of squared differences between corresponding observations of an ordered set of each principal component observations and the set of the population pth quantiles of the standard normal distribution. We proposed the sum of these d-sums of squared differences as an appropriate statistic for testing multivariate normality. We evaluated empirical critical values of the statistic and compared its power with those of some highly regarded techniques with a wonderful result.     

技术进步与经济适度人口

以人口经济学理论为基础,分别研究了三类技术进步与经济适度人口的关系,并用实证数据加以检验,进而指出:技术进步对经济适度人口的影响是复杂的,既有增加就业的正效应,又有减少就业的负效应,而正确选择并推广应用新技术,同时给予适当的政策引导,技术进步就可以有效地增加经济适度人口。