基于GIS和SPSS的聊城市人口压力空间格局研究

根据影响聊城市人口压力的内在矛盾和外在因素。确定了聊城市人口压力评价指标体系,采用主成分分析法计算了人口压力指数,再通过聚类分析等方法,定量分析了1998—2007年聊城市人口压力的空间格局。借助Ar-cGIS9．2软件采用格网法对聊城市人口压力空间格局进行制图显示。结果表明。1998—2007年。聊城市人口压力沿东北一西南轴线呈现明显的地域特征,在空间上出现聚集效应,高唐县人1：1压力指数在_0．14-0．22之间,人口压力适中,人口与社会经济、资源环境发展协调;东昌府区、临清市、茌平县和东阿县人口压力指数在0．1．0．99之间。人口压力较小。人口承栽力较强;冠县、阳谷县和莘县人口压力指数在0．79—1．68之间,人口压力较大,人口与社会经济、资源环境等发展不协调。这种空间分布格局与各地区的有形资源和无形资源都有关系。无须资源的影响比重越来越大。     

人口红利问题研究

人口红利问题是经济学和人口学共同关注的热门话题之一,但是对于人口红利的具体定义仍然存在分歧。文章重新界定了人口红利的概念以及衡量标准。并以此标准探讨了中国人口红利的特征和影响经济增长的条件和传导机制。     

区域竞争下流动人口的规模及分布

本文重新定义了流动人口概念,并分析了流动人口的实际规模及分布。广义流动人口包括离开户口所在地(乡、镇、街道)半年以上的长期流入者和半年以下经济型短期流入者。基于2005年全国1%人口抽样调查的现有人口数据,我们发现经济型短期流入规模达1676.5万,占重要流入省市总人口比重的2%以上。2005年,全国流动人口总数在1.5亿左右,其中跨省流动人口大约6844万。省际流动的流入地及流出地都比较集中:近3/4来自中南及西南9个欠发达省份,3/4流向经济发达区域广东(34.2%),长三角(28.5%)和环渤海地区(13%)。对珠、长三角的选择由距离决定:邻近省选择高度集中,等距或长距时则分散到两个区域。以上分布显示沿海发达地区对中西部人口的强烈吸引力,也反映出区域发展多极化后发达区域间劳动力需求竞争加剧。     

区域可持续发展及其人口安全策略研究

区域可持续发展是建立在社会、经济、资源、环境对人口系统的支撑之上,关键是要保持人口与社会、经济协调发展,并维持资源、环境对人口发展的持续支撑。基于此,建立了包括人口子系统、社会经济子系统、资源环境子系统和科技制度子系统的区域可持续发展指标体系框架,并用全国各省的横截面数据,对区域可持续发展各系统状态进行因子分析与评价,并根据结果提出区域可持续发展系统的人口安全对策思考。     

甘肃省人口老龄化实证分析

为了解甘肃省人口老龄化的状况,利用SPSS软件对2005年我国大陆31个地区的65岁及以上老年人口占总人口的比例作了聚类分析．将甘肃省人口年龄结构与全国做了比较后分析,结果显示甘肃省人口老龄化速度慢于全国近5年。在此基础上。对甘肃省老年人口比重的未来做了短期预测,预计到2016年,甘肃省老年人口比重将达到20．12％。届时甘肃省将发展成为典型的老年型社会。     

人口城乡结构变动对城镇失业保险需求的影响研究

人口城乡结构变动是引发失业保险需求增长的因素之一,本文在对失业保险需求概念及人口城乡结构变动对失业保险需求影响定性分析的基础上,构建了失业人口变动测算模型和失业保险需求测算模型。以陕西省为例的测算结果表明,引入人口城乡结构变动因素时的失业保险需求远大于不引入人口城乡结构变动时的失业保险需求,两者之间的差额从2010年的12.70亿元增长至2020年的31.72亿元,年均递增9.59%。     

四川民族地区人口流动与城市化发展路径研究

本文以阿坝州、甘孜州、凉山州为例,分析了四川民族地区人口流动的成因、意义与困境;人口流动与城市化发展存在互动关系．积极推进民族地区城市化进程是缓解人口流动困境的有效路径。     

Sending or Receiving Stations? The Dual Influence of Railroads in Early 20th-Century Great Plains Settlement

This study investigates how railroads shaped settlement patterns in the twentieth century US Great Plains using railroad, population census, and environmental data. The substantive question speaks to recent theoretical and methodological interests in contextual and ecological issues. Drawing from theories of transportation and development, I use spatially-oriented techniques to empirically test long-held claims about the relationship of railroads to population development. The Great Plains is a region where settlement is commonly attributed to railroad expansion. Study results show a complex relationship between county population growth and the presence of railroads during the period after the railroad heyday and before the widespread adoption of the automobile, 1900–1930. Counter to the nineteenth century pattern, the association between population change and railroads is negative. Yet the relationship is conditioned by the stage of county development; in the first decade, railroads are receiving stations for counties with smaller population density and sending agents for more settled places; the reverse is observed during the 1920s; and no significant relationship exists during the 1910s. Spatial effects are addressed in the analysis, and theoretical and statistical implications for scholarship concerning transportation and spatial units of analysis are discussed.

Replacement Migration Revisited: Simulations of the Effects of Selected Population and Labor Market Strategies for the Aging Europe, 2002–2052

This paper contains the selected results of research concerning the impact of international migration on population dynamics and labor force resources in 27 European countries over the 2002–2052 period. The study presents a set of simulations prepared under various assumptions on target population size and selected proxy indicators of population and labor force structures. The concept of “replacement migration’’ is used to illustrate the magnitude of the expected deficit and structural imbalance of the population and labor force in the first half of the 21st century. The results are the basis for making general recommendations for future population, migration, and labor market policy strategies in Europe, taking into account the long-term plausibility of the proposed solutions. It is argued that only a combination of policies aimed at increasing fertility and labor force participation, together with reasonable-level immigration, can help meet socioeconomic challenges posed by population aging.