Socioeconomic evaluation of a correctional programme in Sweden—long-term effects Samhällsekonomisk utvärdering av ett kriminalvårdsprogram i Sverige—långsiktiga effekter

The present article focuses on the long-term socioeconomic outcome of a correctional programme in Sweden, called KrAmi (n=62), using a systematic comparison with a control group of probation clients (n=51). The evaluation, which had a quasi-experimental design, was based on actual costs for each client (n=113) for a period of five years, from 1995 to 1999. The follow-up period was two years, during which the socioeconomic costs decreased step-wise for both groups, probation groups more so than programme groups. The deteriorations were 70–80% compared to the period before treatment. Rehabilitation to labour market, measured in pension points, was more successful for programme groups than for control groups. Thanks to this, as well as lower costs during the treatment period, the programme groups’ socioeconomic profitability, measured with a 15-year cost–benefit analysis (CBA), was greater than that of the control groups. The cost–effectiveness analysis (CEA) shows that the KrAmi groups are better off in work rehabilitation, depreciation time (one year compared with two and a half years for probation groups) and repayment ratio (14 SEK compared to 6 SEK for probation groups) although cost savings are greater for probation groups.     

城市可持续发展综合评价指标体系研究

城市可持续发展指标体系的构建，应遵从科学性、可比性、可操作性、层次性、系统性和创新性六原则，应包含经济、社会和资源环境三个子系统，设立四个指标层次，41个指标。而各项指标的权重当采用客观赋权法中的熵值法确定。     

Evaluating technical efficiency of human capital formation in the Italian university: Evidence from Florence

This paper models the human capital formation in the Italian university and utilizes a measure of technical efficiency to estimate the output-efficiency of human capital formation in the University of Florence, by using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) on a selected set of inputs and outputs. It uses the Program Evaluation (PE) procedure as well, in an attempt to attribute shares of the variation in efficiency to factors that are beyond the control and factors that are under the control of the graduates and faculties. The authors thank two anonymous referees for their valuable comments.     

Tailored program evaluation: Past, present, future

This paper discusses measurement issues related to the evaluation of computer-tailored health behavior change programs. As the first generation of commercially available tailored products is utilized in health promotion programming, programmers and researchers are becoming aware of the unique challenges that the evaluation of these programs presents. A project is presented that used an online tailored health behavior assessment (HBA) in a worksite setting. Process and outcome evaluation methods are described and include the challenges faced, and strategies proposed and implemented, for meeting them. Implications for future research in tailored program development, implementation, and evaluation are also discussed.     

Development of a participatory monitoring and evaluation strategy

This paper describes the process of developing a participatory monitoring and evaluation strategy for a Kenyan youth-based NGO. The iterative nature of the study including the process of narrowing down indicators to measure and methods to monitor/evaluate these is well documented. A discussion on the extent to which the process achieved participation and was empowering for the participants reflects on existing power relationships and cultural context of Kenya and points to the need to create opportunities for youth where they engage with the broader community. Lessons that emerge out of the study focus on the importance of prioritizing monitoring and evaluation, the potential of youth to carry out effective monitoring and evaluation, and the need for researchers to engage respectfully with communities and participants.     

先发地区构建现代产业体系现状研究——以江苏省为例

以全国31个省、自治区、直辖市的2012年以来人均地区生产总值、产业结构分布等情况为主要指标,被识别出来的先发地区有北京、上海、天津、浙江、江苏等地区。由产业融合深化、产业结构优化、自主创新强化和产业环境开放化4个一级指标及细化的12个二级分指标构成的现代产业体系构建和发展评价指标体系为基本工具,对江苏省的现代产业体系构建和发展情况进行评价,其最终得分为68.32分,基本处于现代产业体系的成长阶段。以此为基础,江苏等经济发展先发地区在构建和发展现代产业体系时应不断凸显区域经济产业结构高度化发展趋势;促进先进制造业和现代服务业协同发展;逐步营造创新友好环境,提升产业创新效益;逐步开放产业环境,鼓励重点产业"走出去";进一步发挥扩散效应,拉动区域梯度发展。     

应用型大学自评式科研指标体系构建研究

高等教育多样性发展,其突出表现即大学差异化的定位与发展方向。以应用型为办学方向的大学,应侧重于科学研究的应用性,而自评式科研指标体系则是对应用型大学转型建设的重要引领与支撑。通过分析,采用通用的科研评价指标,构建专属应用型大学的自评式科研指标体系,对应用型大学的可持续发展有着重要意义。     

PITMAN-CLOSENESS AS A MEASURE TO EVALUATE THE QUALITY OF FORECASTS

ABSTRACT

We consider Pitman-closeness to evaluate the performance of univariate and multivariate forecasting methods. Optimal weights for the combination of forecasts are calculated with respect to this criterion. These weights depend on the assumption of the distribution of the individual forecasts errors. In the normal case they are identical with the optimal weights with respect to the MSE-criterion (univariate case) and with the optimal weights with respect to the MMSE-criterion (multivariate case). Further, we present a simple example to show how the different combination techniques perform. There we can see how much the optimal multivariate combination can outperform different other combinations. In practice, we can find multivariate forecasts e.g., in econometrics. There is often the situation that forecast institutes estimate several economic variables.     

各省区季度GDP数据质量评估

  国内外学者对我国GDP数据质量的质疑重点已从年度数据转到季度数据,从全国数据转向地方数据。本文通过设计一套较为系统且可操作性强的季度GDP评估指标体系,运用空间面板数据模型对各省区的季度GDP数据质量进行了实证检验。结果表明,整体来看,中国各省区季度GDP同各经济指标的匹配性较好,数据质量较高,并不存在明显的失真现象;从时间上来看,每年一、二季度的GDP存在一定程度的高估,而每年三、四季度的GDP则存在一定程度的低估,但是这种偏差在统计上不显著;分地区来看,尽管一半省区的季度GDP存在一定程度的高估,另一半省区存在一定程度的低估,但大部分省区高估或低估的程度在统计上不显著。文章进一步分析了其中的原因。