农村老年人日常生活家庭照料与社会照料关系研究——基于多层回归模型的分析

文章利用中国健康与养老追踪调查 2011—2012 年的基线调查数据,运用多层回归模型,通过分析社会照料对农村老年人家庭照料获得的影响,探讨家庭照料与社会照料的关系。 回归估计结果显示,个人层次上的年龄、居住状况、失能情况和社区层次上的老龄补贴、经济状况对农村老年人获得家庭照料有不同程度的影响,而代表社会照料的变量在统计上均不显著。 回归估计结果说明,社会照料并不能对缺位的家庭照料起到补充作用,更不会起到替代作用,两者呈现一种非此即彼的“无关系”。 文章的政策启示是,打破家庭照料与社会照料的壁垒,构建一个“流动”的老年照料体系。     

Diverging Paths? A Comparative Look at Childcare Policies in Japan,South Korea and Taiwan

This article compares state policies to support childcare in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, using fuzzy set ideal type analysis to determine the nature of institutional arrangements with respect to labour, money and time provisions. We then note their implications for familialization and defamilialization in the three countries. Our analysis suggests a common pattern towards the increased use of financial support amongst the three countries over time; however, this commonality does not mean their childcare policies are converging, as the financial supports differ in focus, with Japan concentrating on familialization by valuing family care, and Korea exclusively employing policy to facilitate the use of market‐based care services. For its part, Taiwan has been strengthening familialization by increasing the leave compensation to value time off to provide care. The different labour, money and time dimensions vis‐à‐vis the familialization/defamilialization matrix suggest varying implications of institutional arrangements for gender.     

中国古代调解制度探析

古代社会解决纠纷的途径多种多样,调解作为其中一种主要方式有着举足轻重的作用。在介绍中国传统调解制度的类型及特点的基础上,探讨传统调解制度对于古代封建社会的价值所在,认为其虽然存在一定的缺点,但是其有益的部分对我国当前的纠纷解决机制的完善有很大的借鉴作用。     

The Representation of the Family’s Voice in Serious Case Review Reports of Child Maltreatment

Australia and the United Kingdom have mandatory systems of case reviews, which are conducted whenever a child known to welfare or health services has died or been seriously harmed due to maltreatment. In the United Kingdom those conducting case reviews are required to involve family members in their deliberations. This study employed discourse analysis to examine the representation of family voices in 41 Overview Reports of Serious Case Reviews undertaken in England and published during 2014. The findings revealed that the contributions of family members were generally relegated or their legitimacy undercut by the positivist framing of most overview reports. However, the research also identified how the framing of family contributions within an interpretivist paradigm could engender highly complex understanding of deficiencies in child protection systems and lead to crucial new learning for professionals.     

Bayes shrinkage estimator for consistency assessment of treatment effects in multi-regional clinical trials

The primary objective of a multi-regional clinical trial is to investigate the overall efficacy of the drug across regions and evaluate the possibility of applying the overall trial result to some specific region. A challenge arises when there is not enough regional sample size. We focus on the problem of evaluating applicability of a drug to a specific region of interest under the criterion of preserving a certain proportion of the overall treatment effect in the region. We propose a variant of James-Stein shrinkage estimator in the empirical Bayes context for the region-specific treatment effect. The estimator has the features of accommodating the between-region variation and finiteness correction of bias. We also propose a truncated version of the proposed shrinkage estimator to further protect risk in the presence of extreme value of regional treatment effect. Based on the proposed estimator, we provide the consistency assessment criterion and sample size calculation for the region of interest. Simulations are conducted to demonstrate the performance of the proposed estimators in comparison with some existing methods. A hypothetical example is presented to illustrate the application of the proposed method.     

基层民主自治进程中乡村计划生育政策落实的困境及出路——基于基层治理中“不出事逻辑”的分析视角

本文对基层民主自治进程中乡村计划生育政策落实的困境及出路进行了探讨。基层民主自治是我国的一项基本政治制度,实行基层民主自治是发展中国特色社会主义民主政治的重要内容。但是在乡村推行基层民主自治的过程中,乡村计划生育政策的落实陷入一些困境,这些困境集中表现为计生政策与村民生育愿望、与村委会选举、与社会保障体系、与利益导向机制及与其它相关部门和政策的冲突与矛盾。鉴于此,本文相对应地提出了加强宣传教育、完善村民自治、健全社会保障体系、健全舆论导向机制以及加强政策的同向性与协调度等对策建议,以期推动计划生育政策在乡村进一步落实。     

Comparing diagnostic tests: test of hypothesis for likelihood ratios

Likelihood ratios (LRs) are used to characterize the efficiency of diagnostic tests. In this paper, we use the classical weighted least squares (CWLS) test procedure, which was originally used for testing the homogeneity of relative risks, for comparing the LRs of two or more binary diagnostic tests. We compare the performance of this method with the relative diagnostic likelihood ratio (rDLR) method and the diagnostic likelihood ratio regression (DLRReg) approach in terms of size and power, and we observe that the performances of CWLS and rDLR are the same when used to compare two diagnostic tests, while DLRReg method has higher type I error rates and powers. We also examine the performances of the CWLS and DLRReg methods for comparing three diagnostic tests in various sample size and prevalence combinations. On the basis of Monte Carlo simulations, we conclude that all of the tests are generally conservative and have low power, especially in settings of small sample size and low prevalence.     

The declining influence of family background on educational attainment in Australia: The role of measured and unmeasured influences

The paper examines changes in the influence of family background, including socioeconomic and social background variables on educational attainment in Australia for cohorts born between 1890 and 1982. We test hypotheses from modernization theory on sibling data using random effects models and find: (i) substantial declines in the influence of family background on educational attainment (indicated by the sibling intraclass correlations); (ii) declines in the effects of both economic and cultural socioeconomic background variables; (iii) changes in the effects of some social background variables (e.g., family size); (iv) and declines in the extent that socioeconomic and social background factors account for variation in educational attainment. Unmeasured family background factors are more important, and proportionally increasingly so, for educational attainment than the measured socioeconomic and social background factors analyzed. Fixed effects models showed steeper declines in the effects of socioeconomic background variables than in standard analyses suggesting that unmeasured family factors associated with socioeconomic background obscure the full extent of the decline.     

Long-term consequences of youth volunteering: Voluntary versus involuntary service

Despite the renewed interest in youth volunteering in recent years, there remain major gaps in our knowledge of its consequences. Drawing data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health, we examine the long-term effects of youth volunteering on the civic and personal aspects of volunteers’ lives. Our results suggest that youth volunteering has a positive return on adult volunteering only when it is voluntary, and that net of contextual factors neither voluntary nor involuntary youth service has a significant effect on adult voting. Regarding personal outcomes, our findings indicate that the psychological benefits of youth volunteering accrue only to voluntary participants, whereas both voluntary and involuntary youth service are positively associated with educational attainment and earnings in young adulthood. Taken together, these results lend support to the case for youth volunteer programs, though the civic benefits of these programs appear to be less dramatic than generally suggested.     

A Preliminary Evaluation of the 1-2-3-Magic Parenting Program in an Australian Community Services Setting

Cognitive-behavioural parenting programs provide caregivers with alternative strategies to harsh disciplining practices but the choice of programs that are evidence-based in Australia is limited. Australian community service workers suggest that having a choice of evidence-based programs is important when matching programs to client needs, and that 1-2-3 Magic is a program used widely in Australia despite its small Australian evidence base. The efficacy of the 1-2-3 Magic program has previously been shown in a controlled trial in an Australian university research setting but little is known about its effectiveness in a “real-world” setting. This study examined a three-session group-format of the Australian 1-2-3 Magic & Emotion Coaching program in a typical metropolitan community service setting. Thirty-eight caregivers with children aged 2–6 years reported a significant decrease in disruptive child behaviour (ECBI), permissive parenting (PS), and parental depression and stress (DASS) from pre- to post-intervention, with results maintained at 3-month follow-up. While these findings suggest that a brief 1-2-3 Magic program is beneficial, it is important to note that methodological limitations (intervention-group only study design and possible confounding variables) do not allow ruling out alternative causes for these improvements. Further research will be needed to confirm that this program can generalise to “real-world” settings.